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GFT Daily Market Commentary
Thursday, July 24, 2008

by Cornelius Luca of Global Forex Trading

Forex Market Commentary for July 25, 2008 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar rallied versus the European currencies on Thursday, but fell against the yen. The oil is recovering, the equity markets are weak and the financial risk in the US is rising. Thus, the dollar has all the chances to sink today. Keep an eye on the US housing and on the durable goods orders data.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar fell to a new low for the downmove and my model remains short. But it recovered on the close. The medium-term outlook is bullish, and the risk is on the downside.

Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5740. The next levels are 1.5790, 1.5820, and 1.5860. These are followed by 1.5943. A pivot high remains at 1.6036.

Initial support is at 1.5629. Strong support follows at 1.5585. The next good level is at 1.5550.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen formed a bearish reversal and the downside is favored for Friday.

Below 107.00, support is again at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Below 105.85, distant support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.

Resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar is still alternating up and down days, and Thursday was a sharp down day! My model remains short. The slide was overdone and the upside is favored.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.9895. Above 1.9945, the next level is 1.9990. A pivot high follows 2.0075.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9818. Below this trendline at 1.9815, support is seen at 1.9760.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss made little progress on Thursday. My model is long, but the risk is on the downside today.

Initial support is seen at 1.0310. Below 1.0275, support now comes at 1.0200. Distant support is pegged at 1.0140.

Immediate resistance is at 1.0405. Above 1.0450, resistance now comes at 1.0475. This is followed by 1.0540.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Recent articles from this author

Euro Capped at 1.3000 as All Eyes on US - Monday, February 09, 2009
GFT Daily Market Commentary - Thursday, October 30, 2008
GFT Daily Market Commentary - Wednesday, October 29, 2008
GFT Daily Market Commentary - Tuesday, October 28, 2008
GFT Daily Market Commentary - Monday, October 27, 2008

About the author

In 2002, Luca joined Global Forex Trading, Division of Global Futures & Forex, Ltd., as one of its analysts who provides daily, weekly and monthly commentary on the major markets of foreign exchange. Luca is a world-renown author, teacher and authority in foreign exchange who has traded and analyzed currencies since 1983. His daily and weekly commentary on the major currencies can be read at http://www.gftforex.com/resources/commentary.asp?aid=576

As a qualified professor of finance, Luca has taught courses at the New York University, Pace University's Lubin School of Business Graduate Division in New York City and at the New York Institute of Finance's FT Knowledge. His published works include Trading in the Global Currencies Markets, which was published by Prentice Hall and is a comprehensive analysis of the foreign exchange markets, instruments, players and methods of forecasting.

Additional Luca works published by Prentice Hall include Technical Analysis Applications in the Global Currencies Markets, which is an in-depth and unique coverage of currency charting analysis. His most recent book, titled Technical Analysis Applications, will be published by McGraw-Hill in August 2004 Luca earned a master's degree in business in international business and finance from the New York University's Leonard Stern Graduate School of Business and a bachelor's degree in international marketing from the Bernard Baruch College, The City University of New York.

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