GFT Daily Market Commentary
A further recovery in the equity indices, a declining oil price (now for three days) and a falsely strong US hosing report helped the dollar pad its bounce on Thursday. But the medium-term outlook remains negative, and the dollar may be ending its recovery today.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar reversed early losses on Thursday and this my model went long. The short-term outlook is slightly bullish, while the medium-term outlook remains bullish.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5890. The next levels are 1.5910 and 1.5970. A pivot high now follows at 1.6036. Above 1.6055, distant resistance is at 1.6135.
Below 1.5830, support is remains at 1.5765. The next good level remains at 1.5685. Distant support is 1.5630.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen exploded higher on Thursday, but failed to test the declining trendline and trimmed gains. The short-term outlook is negative.
Below 105.85, support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support follows at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Immediate resistance is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied on Thursday but remained stuck in an inside range. My model remains long. Cable should first edge lower, but the medium-term outlook remains positive.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.9960. Below 1.9905, support is now seen at 1.9850.
Initial resistance now comes at 2.0005. This is followed by 2.0040 and 2.0085. A pivot high follows 2.0155. Distant resistance is at 2.0250.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss rallied on Thursday, as expected, but gave it all up by the close. My model went long, but the risk is on the downside today.
Initial support remains at 1.0135. Below 1.0095, support is now seen at 1.0013 and .9984.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0245. Above it, resistance now comes at 1.0315. This is followed by 1.0390.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
