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GFT Daily Market Commentary
Thursday, July 10, 2008

by Cornelius Luca of Global Forex Trading

Forex Market Commentary for July 11, 2008 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary


The dollar was all over the place on Thursday, down versus the euro and the commodity currencies, but up against the yen and pound. The US currency should attempt another decline today and the US trade deficit should not be a market mover. 


Euro/dollar


Euro/dollar rallied on Thursday to a one-week high. My model remains long and I expect a choppy upmove.
 
Immediate resistance is at 1.5820.  Above the pivot high at 1.5908, euro/dollar had distant resistance at 1.6020.
 
Initial support is at 1.5665. Below 1.5630, support now comes at 1.5575. Distant support follows at 1.5460. 
 
Oscillators are rising.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen


Dollar/yen made a half-hearted upmove on Thursday but got stuck in an inside range. Expect further choppy trading today as well, but the upside remains limited. 

Initial resistance remains at 107.25. Strong resistance is at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. 

Good support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.  

Oscillators are rising.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed 
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed 
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar


Sterling/dollar fell sharply early Thursday but reduced its losses by the close. My model went short, but I expected sideways trading today.

Below 1.9775, support is still seen at 1.9730.  Distant support is now seen at 1.9650.
 
Initial resistance is seen at 1.9840. Above 1.9908, cable now faces distant resistance at 2.0004.
 
Oscillators are declining.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed 
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc


Despite the brouhaha in Iran, dollar/Swiss closed unchanged on Thursday. Thus, the bearish reversal formation from Wednesday remains incipient. Expect further choppy trading, and my model remains short.

Initial support is still seen at 1.0250.  The next level is 1.0215. Distant support is seen at 1.0166.

Above 1.0320, resistance remains at 1.0415 and 1.0450. Distant resistance comes at 1.0540.
 
Oscillators are rising.

 
NEAR-TERM: Mixed 
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish


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About the author

In 2002, Luca joined Global Forex Trading, Division of Global Futures & Forex, Ltd., as one of its analysts who provides daily, weekly and monthly commentary on the major markets of foreign exchange. Luca is a world-renown author, teacher and authority in foreign exchange who has traded and analyzed currencies since 1983. His daily and weekly commentary on the major currencies can be read at http://www.gftforex.com/resources/commentary.asp?aid=576

As a qualified professor of finance, Luca has taught courses at the New York University, Pace University's Lubin School of Business Graduate Division in New York City and at the New York Institute of Finance's FT Knowledge. His published works include Trading in the Global Currencies Markets, which was published by Prentice Hall and is a comprehensive analysis of the foreign exchange markets, instruments, players and methods of forecasting.

Additional Luca works published by Prentice Hall include Technical Analysis Applications in the Global Currencies Markets, which is an in-depth and unique coverage of currency charting analysis. His most recent book, titled Technical Analysis Applications, will be published by McGraw-Hill in August 2004 Luca earned a master's degree in business in international business and finance from the New York University's Leonard Stern Graduate School of Business and a bachelor's degree in international marketing from the Bernard Baruch College, The City University of New York.
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