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GFT Daily Market Commentary
Wednesday, July 09, 2008

by Cornelius Luca of Global Forex Trading

Forex Market Commentary for July 10, 2008 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar’s attempts to pad its gains were unsuccessful on Wednesday, as Iran’s test of missiles triggered a knee-jerk reaction. The US currency sank broadly and my model went short. Firing nine missiles doesn’t change a thing, but the US equity indices sinking into recession do. Thus, choppy trading should continue in FX.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar rallied on Wednesday, but remained stuck in an inside range. My model is now long, but with the market alternating up and down days, I’m not sure for how long. Expect choppy trading.

Immediate resistance is at 1.5765. Above 1.5820, euro/dollar faces key resistance at 1.5905.

Below 1.5710, support now comes at 1.5675. The next good levels are at 1.5630 and 1.5575.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen fell on Wednesday, but once again didn’t break any new ground. Expect more choppy trading today as well, but the upside seems limited.

Good support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.

Initial resistance is at 107.25. Strong resistance iis at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar rallied sharply and unexpectedly and obliterated losses made in the previous two days. My model is long, but the upside looks limited.

Initial resistance is seen at 1.9865. Above 1.9908, cable now faces distant resistance at 2.0004.

Below 1.9775, support is now seen at 1.9730. Distant support is now seen at 1.9650.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss fell from a nearly two-week high and formed an incipient bearish reversal formation. Expect further choppy trading, but my model is now short.

Initial support is now seen at 1.0250. The next level is 1.0215. Distant support is seen at 1.0166.

Above 1.0320, resistance remains at 1.0415 and 1.0450. Distant resistance comes at 1.0540.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Recent articles from this author

Euro Capped at 1.3000 as All Eyes on US - Monday, February 09, 2009
GFT Daily Market Commentary - Thursday, October 30, 2008
GFT Daily Market Commentary - Wednesday, October 29, 2008
GFT Daily Market Commentary - Tuesday, October 28, 2008
GFT Daily Market Commentary - Monday, October 27, 2008

About the author

In 2002, Luca joined Global Forex Trading, Division of Global Futures & Forex, Ltd., as one of its analysts who provides daily, weekly and monthly commentary on the major markets of foreign exchange. Luca is a world-renown author, teacher and authority in foreign exchange who has traded and analyzed currencies since 1983. His daily and weekly commentary on the major currencies can be read at http://www.gftforex.com/resources/commentary.asp?aid=576

As a qualified professor of finance, Luca has taught courses at the New York University, Pace University's Lubin School of Business Graduate Division in New York City and at the New York Institute of Finance's FT Knowledge. His published works include Trading in the Global Currencies Markets, which was published by Prentice Hall and is a comprehensive analysis of the foreign exchange markets, instruments, players and methods of forecasting.

Additional Luca works published by Prentice Hall include Technical Analysis Applications in the Global Currencies Markets, which is an in-depth and unique coverage of currency charting analysis. His most recent book, titled Technical Analysis Applications, will be published by McGraw-Hill in August 2004 Luca earned a master's degree in business in international business and finance from the New York University's Leonard Stern Graduate School of Business and a bachelor's degree in international marketing from the Bernard Baruch College, The City University of New York.

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