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GFT Daily Market Commentary
Tuesday, July 08, 2008

by Cornelius Luca of Global Forex Trading

Forex Market Commentary for July 9, 2008 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar unexpectedly marched higher on Tuesday after the oil prices fell again and the US stock indices managed to advance. There was little impact from news that the index of pending home re-sales fell 4.7 percent in June following an upwardly revised 7.1 percent gain in April. It’s summer time and the market is very unclear – but the dollar should attempt to pad its gains on Wednesday.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar fell on Tuesday, but was stuck in an inside range. My model remains short, which is good since the pair remains below the former rising trendline. Expect choppy trading.

Below 1.5635, support remains at 1.5605. The next good level is at 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.

Immediate resistance is still at 1.5735. Above 1.5820, euro/dollar faces key resistance at 1.5905.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen reversed aggressively on Tuesday, but didn’t break any new ground. Expect more choppy trading today as well.

Good resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Initial support is at 107.20. Strong support follows at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar fell further on Tuesday, but got stuck in an inside range. My model remains short and the downside bias continues, but choppy trading should continue.

Below 1.9710, support is now seen at 1.9605. Distant support remains at 1.9540.

Initial resistance is seen at 1.9745. Above 1.9795, cable has resistance is at 1.9865. Distant resistance follows at 1.9908

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss rallied to a 1 ½-week high after forming an outside range on Tuesday. Expect further choppy trading, but my model remains long.

Above 1.0350, resistance remains at 1.0415 and 1.0450. Distant resistance comes at 1.0540.

Initial support is now seen at 1.0305. The next level is 1.0215. Distant support is seen at 1.0166.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Recent articles from this author

Euro Capped at 1.3000 as All Eyes on US - Monday, February 09, 2009
GFT Daily Market Commentary - Thursday, October 30, 2008
GFT Daily Market Commentary - Wednesday, October 29, 2008
GFT Daily Market Commentary - Tuesday, October 28, 2008
GFT Daily Market Commentary - Monday, October 27, 2008

About the author

In 2002, Luca joined Global Forex Trading, Division of Global Futures & Forex, Ltd., as one of its analysts who provides daily, weekly and monthly commentary on the major markets of foreign exchange. Luca is a world-renown author, teacher and authority in foreign exchange who has traded and analyzed currencies since 1983. His daily and weekly commentary on the major currencies can be read at http://www.gftforex.com/resources/commentary.asp?aid=576

As a qualified professor of finance, Luca has taught courses at the New York University, Pace University's Lubin School of Business Graduate Division in New York City and at the New York Institute of Finance's FT Knowledge. His published works include Trading in the Global Currencies Markets, which was published by Prentice Hall and is a comprehensive analysis of the foreign exchange markets, instruments, players and methods of forecasting.

Additional Luca works published by Prentice Hall include Technical Analysis Applications in the Global Currencies Markets, which is an in-depth and unique coverage of currency charting analysis. His most recent book, titled Technical Analysis Applications, will be published by McGraw-Hill in August 2004 Luca earned a master's degree in business in international business and finance from the New York University's Leonard Stern Graduate School of Business and a bachelor's degree in international marketing from the Bernard Baruch College, The City University of New York.

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