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Euro 'Higher' on Expected Rate Hike.


7/2/2008

Euro Currency: (ECU8)

The EC opened higher at 1.5785 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.5765, before climbing to a morning Hi of 1.5832. Traders are looking for the ECB to follow thru on the 'promise' to keep inflation contained by raising s/t rates by 25bp Thursday 4.25%. Some traders were looking to take profit/risk off the table ahead of the rate decision and extend a longer weekend, sending prices down to 1.5799, before climbing into the close of 1.5828, up 98 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ firm momentum indicators. Traders will key on the policy statement from ECB Trichet and see if it is 'hawkish' enough to keep longs interested in looking for higher prices or take the profits and run. The Non-farm payroll report will also be a key trading factor, so be cautious. Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.5868 and 1.5908, while an open below 1.5793 may find Support at 1.5753 and 1.5678.

Dollar Index: (DXU8)

The DX opened lower at 72.675 and rose to a morning Hi of 72.74, before a weaker than expected ADP report showed an expected loss of 79,000 private sector jobs. With a stronger EC the DX retraced to a daily Lo of 72.30, before limping to close of 72.36, down 30 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. Look for early volatility as the Non-farm Payroll report and ECB rate announcement will be announced at approximately the same time. The statement from ECB President could add to the volatility, depending on the 'hawkish' or 'dovish' tone and outlook for further rate increases. The greater than expected increase in jobs lost from the ADP report could lead to a larger than expected loss in the NFP report of -45,000 jobs lost. A lower open may find Support at 72.16 and 71.97, while an open above 72.49 should find Resistance at 72.68 and 73.01.

British Pound: (BPU8):

Canadian Dollar: (CDU8):

Japanese Yen: (JYU8): 




 


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About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
Alaron, www.TheCommodityConsultant.com

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst  at Alaron Trading. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trail subscription of 

PROBABLE DAILY & WEEKLY TRADING RANGES

by calling Bob at 800-462-4691 or via e-mail at bkozak@alaron.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

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