MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 2, 2008)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
USING INSIDE & OUTSIDE DAYS: My Update reviews the markets from a technical standpoint. I often use inside/outside days for market entry combined with other technical indicators. Please keep in mind the following:
- When attempting to buy from an inside/outside day and the formation gives a sell instead, I normally cancel the buy order. The same applies if I'm trying to sell from an inside/outside day and a buy is triggered instead, I cancel the sell order. Such action usually represents a market in conflict so I wait for further clarification.
- A potential signal from an inside/outside day is good for that day only.
POTENTIAL PROJECTIONS: The purpose of including potential projections is to give you a potential only. It is not a target written in stone. Each trader should take into consideration their trading goals and equity situation. The projection is a guideline only.
IMPORTANT: CHANGES IN STOPS: Please be aware that during the day I will move stops as soon as possible to protect profits. Consequently, there will be times when I will show a stop exit that is different than the one published in the last Update or Trade Alert. Only existing clients are notified of these changes during the day.
ELECTRONIC MARKETS: Please note that I use charts for the electronic markets versus the pit for all commodities and enter electronically. I DO NOT place orders for entry for the night session. I wait until the day session or until I arrive in the morning (7:00 am cst). If the market is at or near my entry at that time, I will place the order. I ALWAYS have stops placed for the night session.
TRADE ALERT:
(PLEASE NOTE THAT ALL TRADES ARE GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY . ALL TRADES ARE FOR THE DAY SESSION ONLY. DO NOT PLACE FOR THE NIGHT SESSION).
Sell September wheat. Sell 853 1/4 stop. Protective stop 878 1/4. Potential projection 800.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On both the monthly and weekly chart the rally was stopped by the 950 resistance.
2. On the weekly chart, attempts to rally over the 20 day moving average have failed for three weeks in a row.
3. A sell signal would trigger a sell signal on the weekly chart.
4. On the daily chart, wheat sold off under the 20 day moving average yesterday and could not rally over it today.
5. A sell signal would push wheat under the 860 support. The last time a sell signal did so in April, the follow through was extensive.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell August cattle. Sell 103.27 stop. Protective stop 104.75. Potential projection 101.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart this month, cattle reached the Nov. 2003 high (that was the high to that move) and have started to sell off. That level is resistance.
2. On the weekly chart, the current wave up has met projections.
3. On the daily chart cattle have been consolidating and holding at the 103.50 level. Today they closed under that support.
4. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Buy September coffee. By 155.95 stop. Protective top 152.10. Potential projection 170.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a buy signal and appears to be starting a second major wave up.
2. The weekly chart rallied over the 20 day moving average two weeks ago and appears to be starting a new wave up.
3. On the daily chart, coffee tested and held the 151.00 support yesterday.
4. On the daily chart, coffee has not yet met the potential projection (170.00) since breaking out of the consolidation it formed for since April.
5. The daily chart has two previous buy signals that are still intact.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Buy October sugar. Buy 13.45 Limit. Protective stop 12.95. Potential projection 15.50.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, sugar triggered a preliminary buy this month.
2. On the monthly chart, the last major sell-off formed a key reversal bottom suggesting a trend change from down to up.
3. The weekly chart has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
4. On the weekly chart, sugar finally rallied over the 20 day moving average this week for the first time since mid April.
5. On the daily chart, sugar broke out from the congestion formed at the 13.20 level today which is positive.
6. On the daily chart, sugar has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
Sell September yen. Sell 94.33 stop. Protective stop 95.47. Potential projection 92.50.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly, the yen rallied up to 96.00 resistance and has begun to sell off. That resistance goes back to the mid '90's.
2. The weekly chart has a sell signal that is still intact.
3. On the weekly chart, the yen has been trading under the 20 day moving average since last May which is negative.
4. On the daily chart, the yen has resistance at 95.50 which has stopped rallies both yesterday and today. Normally the support under the market would need to be more extensive to push the market through that the first time.
5. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Buy September dollar index. Buy 72.920 stop. Protective stop 72.42. Potential projection 74.60.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a buy signal.
2. The weekly has a key reversal bottom indicating a trend change from down to up.
3. On the weekly chart the dollar continues to hold the 72.000 support.
4. On the daily chart, the recent sell-off held the low made on 5.22. On that day, the correction to the second wave up was completed. Holding that area, suggests a start of a potentially fourth wave up.
5. On the daily chart, the dollar formed a key reversal bottom yesterday suggesting a near term trend change from down to up.
Sell September bonds. Sell 115.115 stop. Protective stop 116.170. Potential projection 114.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, bonds rallied to the 116.000 resistance and have been stopped by that area for the second month in a row.
2. On the weekly chart, bonds rallied to their downtrend line and stopped.
3. The weekly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
4. The weekly chart is trading under the 20 day moving average which is negative.
5. On the daily chart, the recent rally formed a key reversal top.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
SEPT CORN: It has support at 720 and struggled to hold it today. It traded under the 20 day moving average too but did come back at the end to hold that support. As pointed out before, the monthly is a bit "stretched out" to say the least. The weekly has now formed a preliminary sell signal. Just watching. Closed 719 1/2, down 5 1/4.
SEPT WHEAT: It is attempting to hold the 860 support. If it cannot, a good sell off should follow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 864 3/4, up 6.
AUG BEANS: A new historic high is being made this week. The daily has triggered a buy as well. The projections I pointed out in my last Update have been surpassed. Just watching. Closed 1623, up 25.
AUG MEAL: Its previous projection at 425.00 has been exceeded. It also has made a new historic high this month and triggered a buy on the daily chart this week. Just watching. Closed 433.60, up 4.60.
AUG BEAN OIL: I had a projection to 70.00 in this market that has not yet been met. It is "lagging" the rest of the bean complex. There should be more to the current rally. Just watching. Closed 66.95, up 63.
MEAT COMMENTS:AUG HOGS: They reached the 2004 high in May and have been selling off since. Attempting to position in them is another story. Long term there is some support around 70.00. The last big sell-off on the daily in April got down to 69.40 and snapped back rather aggressively. Hogs are fast approaching that area and possibly a rally will follow - setting up a selling opportunity. Closed 70.30, down 60.
AUG CATTLE: They have held the 103.50 support for well over a week and a half. This month on the monthly chart they took out the 2003 high by 45 cents and then started to sell off. The key area would be the 103.50. If they cannot hold that level, expect a good sell-off. Closed 103.32, down 10.SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: It is in trouble. On the monthly chart the current formation is almost identical to the one formed in 2003 that produced a sell-off totalling almost 43.00 points. At that time, that was the correction to the first major wave up since the bear move ended in 2001. Long term the current second major wave up (that appears to have peaked in March) is now in the process of a major correction. The weekly chart triggered a sell this week and so did the daily chart. Waiting to sell. Closed 76.33, down 2.05.
SEPT ORANGE JUICE: It reached my objective on Monday and then some. It continued to rally and reached 132.30 today. The monthly triggered a buy this month and based on the chart, there should be more to this move. A setback should be another opportunity to buy - possibly around 124.00 - 122.00. Watching closely. Closed 131.80, up 6.85.
Position: Long 113.50 (6.23). Exit 122.50 (6.30). Profit $1350.
SEPT COFFEE: It reached my objective last Friday. Since then it had a huge outside day yesterday, testing the 151.00 support. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 155.35, up 1.90.
Position: Long 142.20 (6.20). Exit 153.00 (6.27). Profit $4050.
SEPT COCOA: It formed a huge outside day today and has a new high at 32.90. Based on the monthly chart, it has exceeded the projections for the current wave up as well as the projection from the consolidation it broke out of in early 2007. Just watching at this point. Closed 32.75, up 96.
OCT SUGAR: Stops were reached last Friday. It has been stuck in congestion for almost two weeks. My sell was triggered when it broke out to the downside but did not follow through. It has now broken out to the upside. A retracement could be an opportunity to buy. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 13.72, up 54.
Position: Short 12.46 (6.25). Exit 13.16 (6.27). Loss $784.
SEPT COPPER: It is gradually pushing itself through ressistance. The 385.00 resistance it got over on Friday. It tested it today and held. It has an earlier buy signal. Last time I mentioned that it needed to get over 385.00 to start a major rally. So far it is not doing so. It has some resistance at 390.00 and once it can clear that, there should be better follow through. Closed 391.05, up 2.80.
AUG GOLD: It closed over the high made on May 22 today. That high was resistance before. That is positive. This wave up, however, has met projections. The long term charts on this market are giving mixed signals. The monthly is not impressive. The weekly got over a resistance area around 925.00 but is now facing resistance at 950.00. It finally got over the 20 day moving average which has been an obstacle for weeks, literally, and has a buy signal. At least gold is out of that range it had been stuck in for some time under 910. Closed 944.50, up 16.20.
SEPT SILVER: It is behind gold. It finally broke out of the consolidation it was stuck in under 17.750. It has yet to get over the the high made in May and referred to in gold. The monthly is triggering a preliminary buy signal this month. The weekly finally got over the 20 day moving average this week. It did so at the end of May but could not hold it. It is trying again. And it has a buy signal too. In short, it has a lot of positives BUT to suggest a trade would require too much risk. Possibly there will be a setback to enter the market. Waiting to buy. Closed18.290, up 78.
MISC. MARKETS COMMENTS:AUG CRUDE OIL: After consolidating from June 5 thorugh the 26th, it finally broke out to the upside. And guess what? It now has been consolidating above that break out for the last three days. Today was an inside day but just watching at this point. Closed 140.97, up 97.
SEPT JAPANESE YEN: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 94.60, down 11.
SEPT DOLLAR INDEX: I attempted to buy it today. The price was not reached. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Clsoed 72.67, down 16.
SEPT EUROCURRENCY: Its recent rally has stalled out in the same area that it did in in early June. Just watching. Closed 157.30, up 40.
SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR: Long term is appears ready for a sell-off. Nearterm it is still stuck in the same range. Waiting to sell. Closed 97.64, down 52.SEP BONDS: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 115.165, down 2.5.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The information in this email may be confidential and/or legally privileged. It is intended solely for the addressee. Access to this email by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender and destroy any copies of this message and any attachments. Any unauthorized use or dissemination or any action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance on it, is prohibited and may be unlawful. This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment product.
All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
