MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR THURSDAY, JUNE 26, 2008)
888-301-8120
USING INSIDE & OUTSIDE DAYS: My Update reviews the markets from a technical standpoint. I often use inside/outside days for market entry combined with other technical indicators. Please keep in mind the following:
- When attempting to buy from an inside/outside day and the formation gives a sell instead, I normally cancel the buy order. The same applies if I'm trying to sell from an inside/outside day and a buy is triggered instead, I cancel the sell order. Such action usually represents a market in conflict so I wait for further clarification.
- A potential signal from an inside/outside day is good for that day only.
POTENTIAL PROJECTIONS: The purpose of including potential projections is to give you a potential only. It is not a target written in stone. Each trader should take into consideration their trading goals and equity situation. The projection is a guideline only.
IMPORTANT: CHANGES IN STOPS: Please be aware that during the day I will move stops as soon as possible to protect profits. Consequently, there will be times when I will show a stop exit that is different than the one published in the last Update or Trade Alert. Only existing clients are notified of these changes during the day.
ELECTRONIC MARKETS: Please note that I use charts for the electronic markets versus the pit for all commodities and enter electronically. I DO NOT place orders for entry for the night session. I wait until the day session or until I arrive in the morning (7:00 am cst). If the market is at or near my entry at that time, I will place the order. I ALWAYS have stops placed for the night session.
TRADE ALERT:
(PLEASE NOTE THAT ALL TRADES ARE GOOD FOR THURSDAY. ALL TRADES ARE FOR THE DAY SESSION ONLY. DO NOT PLACE FOR THE NIGHT SESSION).
There are no trades for tomorrow.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Long September coffee from 147.50 up to 153.00.
GRAIN COMMENTS: They were very strong today after several appeared to be starting corrections on the daily charts for the last week or so. The recent attempts to sell- off suggested corrections to test the breakouts from consolidations at lower levels (tests of breakouts are very normal and healthy for a market). They did not follow through with the sell-off and are rallying again. It is very unusual for a market not to test a breakout but the possibility of them reaching the projections from those consolidations first may be sooner than later. Here they are: sept. corn - 780, aug. beans - 1600, aug. meal - 425.
SEPT CORN: Switching to Sept. Last time corn was hanging around under 740 and could not get going. The weekly was forming a key reversal top. Today corn got back over 740 and took out the previous high at 772 1/4. The high now is 774 3/4. And the weekly now has a double top. Just looking at the daily chart, it appears that corn is starting a new wave up. The correction it had was not even 38% so how far the rally potential is, is still an unknown but based on the consolidation it broke out of at the 640 level, that base has a projection to 780. Closed 753 3/4, up 23 3/4.
SEPT WHEAT: Last time I suggested the potential for more rally considering the sell-off it had but the struggle it was having at resistance made that questionable. It got over that resistance (which with the Sept. is at 920) and is now close to the 980 resistance. Today's action makes possible a rally to the 1040 level. A test of that 920 support could be a buy area. Closed 942 3/4, up 22 1/2.
AUG BEANS: Switching to August. Like corn, they got back over the resistance that was holding them back. Technically they should have had more of a sell-off that would have been healthy for the market. Instead they rallied and seem headed for their recent high (1589 1/4). They had formed a consolidation under the market and the projection for that consolidation is approximately 1600.00. That would negate the current key reversal top on the weekly. Just watching. Closed 1574 1/4, up 34 1/4.
AUG MEAL: Switching to August. Last time it was attempting to hold support (on the August that is at 395.00). It succeeded in doing so and now seems headed for the key reversal top on the daily at 421.90. It, too, broke out of a base formed down at 355.00 and the projection from that base is 425.00. Closed 419.00, up 11.20.
AUG BEAN OIL: Switching to August. It is the only one that has not consolidated at a lower level. It had one huge correction in late March and has had three waves up since. It now appears to be starting a fourth wave up with a projection to 70.00. The daily chart looks constructive from that standpoint but it is the only one of the grains whose long term charts do not support it. Just watching. Closed 66.00, up 1.45.
MEAT COMMENTS:
AUG HOGS: Switching to August. They continue to sell off with a low today at 72.55. Late last year they did a lot of consolidating in the 72.00 area and that may stop the recent sell-off. Just watching. Clsoed 72.67, down 1.32.
AUG CATTLE: They triggered a sell but there has not been any follow through. For the second day in a row they are holding at 103.55. Long term they pushed through the 97.00 resistance (basis the front contract). Just watching. Closed 103.85, down 55.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: It triggered a buy today and rallied to 82.24. Keep stops at 78.78 and let the market work. Closed 81.77, up 72.
Position: Long 81.65 (6.26).
Projection: 89.00.
SEPT ORANGE JUICE: This is like watching grass grow. It persists in holding at the 112.00 support which is positive but it can't get over 115.00. Keep stops at 110.20. Closed 113.05, up 1.00.
Position: Long 113.55 (6.23).
Projection: 124.00.
SEPT COFFEE: This is another market that has broken out of a consolidation and the projection from that base is approximately 166.00. I had a near term projection to 154.00 but will continue to move the stop up and see what happens. Move stops from 147.50 up to 153.00. Closed 153.65, up 4.85.
Position: Long 142.20 (6.20).
Projection: 154.00.
SEPT COCOA: Another new high in cocoa today at 31.75. It is still "hanging around" at the same level at approximately 31.50 for several days. I see nothing to do. Closed 31.67, up 31.
OCT SUGAR: I sold it yesterday at 12.46. It sold off to 12.32 yesterday and that was it. Keep stops at 13.16. Closed 12.95, up 35.
Position: Short 12.46 (6.25).
Projection: 10.80.
METALS COMMENTS:
SEPT COPPER: It is back to the 385.00 resistance after triggered a buy today from an outside day formed yesterday. It still cannot get through that resistance. The situation is still the same, it needs a breakout over 385.00 to start a major rally. Closed 382.50, up 5.20.
AUG GOLD: It triggered a sell yesterday. The stop was reached today and the sell signal negated. It continued to rally and rallied over the resistance at 910.00. That has been a problem area since late May. I have mentioned before that gold was in a downtrend. That will change if it gets over 940.00 as that is the high of the last rally. If it is starting a new wave up from the low made on May 2, it has projections to 950.00. Closed 915.10, up 37.10.
Position: Short 884.10 (6.25). Exit 896.70 (6.26). Loss $1260.
SEPT SILVER: It triggered a sell yesterday. The stop was reached today and the sell was negated. It is back to rallying and heading for the high end of its range which is approximately 17.750. Unlike gold, it has not broken out of its consolidation yet. It did get over the 20 day moving average though. Just watching. Closed 17.220, up 65.80.
Position: Short 16.680 (6.25). Exit 17.070 (6.26). Loss $1950.
MISC. MARKETS COMMENTS:
AUG CRUDE OIL: The high for this market is 140.42 made on 6.16. Today it got to 140.39. The last time it got to this level it sold off the same day aggressively. Today it did not do so which adds to the potential of it making a new contract high. Just watching. Clsoed 139.64, up 5.09.
SEPT JAPANESE YEN: I sold it yesterday but there has not been follow through. Stops at 93.64 were reached this morning and it continued to rally up to 94.22. It also got over the resistance area that was holding the market down before. Today's rally was stopped by the 20 day moving average. Just watching. Closed 94.17, up 107.
Position: Short 92.79 (6.25). Exit 93.64 (6.26). Loss $1062.50.
SEPT DOLLAR INDEX: I was attempting to buy it but it triggered a sell instead. It sold off through support and has continued to sell off today. The low of the last major correction was 72.33 when it completed its second wave up. That is a point to watch. Closed 72.79, down 49.
SEPT EUROCURRENCY: An inside day on Tuesday triggered a buy Wednesday. It has resistance at 157.00. Today's high 157.06. It has gotten through that level before but cannot sustain it. To make a long story short, it is still in a huge range between 157.00 down to 152.50 approximately. Just watching. Closed 156.96, up 93.
SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR: It has a buy signal but just doesn't seem to have any aggression about it. It is in the middle of its huge range and best to just watch. Closed 98.75, down 23.SEP BONDS: They continue to rally and got over the 114.16 resistance. They are pushing into heavy consolidation between 114.16 and 116.16. Just watching. Closed 115.00, up 101.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
