MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WEDNESDAY, JUNE 25, 2008)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
USING INSIDE & OUTSIDE DAYS: My Update reviews the markets from a technical standpoint. I often use inside/outside days for market entry combined with other technical indicators. Please keep in mind the following:
- When attempting to buy from an inside/outside day and the formation gives a sell instead, I normally cancel the buy order. The same applies if I'm trying to sell from an inside/outside day and a buy is triggered instead, I cancel the sell order. Such action usually represents a market in conflict so I wait for further clarification.
- A potential signal from an inside/outside day is good for that day only.
POTENTIAL PROJECTIONS: The purpose of including potential projections is to give you a potential only. It is not a target written in stone. Each trader should take into consideration their trading goals and equity situation. The projection is a guideline only.
IMPORTANT: CHANGES IN STOPS: Please be aware that during the day I will move stops as soon as possible to protect profits. Consequently, there will be times when I will show a stop exit that is different than the one published in the last Update or Trade Alert. Only existing clients are notified of these changes during the day.
ELECTRONIC MARKETS: Please note that I use charts for the electronic markets versus the pit for all commodities and enter electronically. I DO NOT place orders for entry for the night session. I wait until the day session or until I arrive in the morning (7:00 am cst). If the market is at or near my entry at that time, I will place the order. I ALWAYS have stops placed for the night session.
TRADE ALERT:
(PLEASE NOTE THAT ALL TRADES ARE GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY. ALL TRADES ARE FOR THE DAY SESSION ONLY. DO NOT PLACE FOR THE NIGHT SESSION).
Sell October sugar. Sell 12.57 stop. Protective stop 13.16. Potential projection 10.80.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, the high made in Feb. 2006 formed a key reversal top suggesting a major trend change from up to down. Sugar has had one wave down and could be settng up for a second wave down.
2. On the monthly chart the rally that peaked in Feb. 2008 formed a key reversal top and could be the setup for a second wave down.
3. The monthly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
4. On the weekly chart, sugar is pushing into resistance going back to October 2005.
5. On the daily chart, sugar has been in a downtrend since the high made on March 3. It has had two waves down. The current rally could be the set up for a third wave down.
6. On the daily chart, sugar formed a key reversal top today suggesting a trend change from up to down.
7. On the daily chart, a sell signal would negate a buy signal triggered Monday prior to the key reversal top. Negating a buy signal that soon normally produces further follow through in the new direction.
Sell August gold. Sell 884.10 stop. Protective stop 896.70. Potential projection 860.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. Both the monthly and weekly charts have key reversal tops.
2. The weekly chart violated the 20 day moving average and has not been able to rally back over it for the last five weeks.
3. The daily chart has been in a downtrend since the March high.
4. The daily chart has a previous sell signal.
5. On the daily chart a new sell signal would push gold under the 20 day moving average.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell September silver. Sell 16.680 stop. Protective stop 17.070. Potential projection 15.750.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a major key reversal top.
2. The weekly chart has a key reversal top and has been trading under the 20 day moving average for five weeks.
3. The daily chart has a previous sell signal.
4. The daily collapsed under the 20 day moving average yesterday and attempts to rally over it today failed.
5. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Buy September dollar index. Buy 73.950 stop. Protective stoop 73.340. Potential projection 75.60.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, the dollar has triggered a buy.
2. On the monthly chart, the dollar has consolidated and held at the 72.000 level for the fourth month in a row suggesting a potential bottom and support at that level.
3. The weekly chart has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
4. On the weekly, the dollar rallied over the 20 day moving average three weeks ago. Sell-offs have held at that support since.
5. On the weekly chart, the low (70.805) to the move so far formed a key reversal bottom suggesting a major trend change from down to up. So far, the market continues to confirm that.
6. The daily chart is in a near term uptrend with the completion of three waves.
7. On the daily chart, the recent sell-off appears to be the setup for a fourth wave up.
Sell September japanese yen. Sell 92.79 stop. Protective stop 93.64. Potential projection 90.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, the yen continues to sell off from the 100.00 resistance and violated the uptrend formed since the June 2007 low this month.
2. The weekly chart has a sell signal.
3. On the weekly chart, the yen violated the uptrend formed since the June 2007 low suggesting a trend change from up to down.
4. On the daily chart, an attempt to get back over the 93.50 support failed again today.
5. On the daily chart, the yen is in a downtrend and has a previous sell signal.
6. It triggered a sell today.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Long September coffee from 144.25 up to 146.00.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
JUL CORN: It has lost its "sizzle." On the daily it is attempting to hold minor support at 700. The weekly has a key reversal top and the monthly is so overstretched it is ridiculous. If it cannot hold 700, I suspect we will see a fast sell-off to the 620 support. Closed 712 1/2, down 11 3/4.
JUL WHEAT: This is a tough market right now. It has support at 840 that it held with the recent sell-off. It also now has several days of resistance up at the 880 area and that goes back to January. Just looking at the daily chart you would think that it should have more of a rally. After all it went from the 1280 level down to 730 without a really good retracement. But we may not get it. Just watching. Closed 870, up 3 3/4.
JUL BEANS: They have resistance at 1520 and both yesterday and today they could not get over that. The daily also has a key reversal top and so does the weekly. The monthly shows nothing. Just looking at the chart, I see more sell-off. Closed 1501, down 14.
JUL MEAL: It is attempting to hold at 400.00 support. The daily has a key reversal top which suggests a more extensive sell-off. Further sell-off could push it down to the 385.00 level. Just watching. Closed 401.30, down 2.70.
JUL BEAN OIL: Its long term charts still look bad. It violated the 20 day moving average today on the daily chart. It does have a lot of support under the market at 62.00 which holds me back from selling it. Closed 63.10, down 17.
MEAT COMMENTS:JUL HOGS: I tried to sell hogs but they rallied instead last Friday. They reached 77.30 Monday. Today they are right back to selling off and reached a low at 74.60. Just watching. Closed 75.10, down 1.15.
AUG CATTLE: They triggered a sell today from yesterday's inside day. So far there has not been much follow through even though on the longer term charts they are up against resistance. Just watching. Closed 104.67, down 2.SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: It triggered a sell last Friday. It did not follow through much and formed an inside day yesterday so I lowered the stop to right above the high of that formation in last night's Trade Alert. The stop was reached last night. Just watching for now. Closed 80.53, up 89.
Position: Short 78.93 (6.20). Exit 80.17 (6.24). Loss $620.
SEPT ORANGE JUICE: It triggered a buy on Monday. It did not start to follow through until today. It rallied up to the 20 day moving average. That stopped the rally. Keep stops at 110.20. Closed 113.25, up 65.
Position: Long 113.55 (6.23).
Projection: 124.00.
SEPT COFFEE: It triggered a buy on Friday and finally broke out of the congestion area it was stuck in. It continued to follow through today. Move stops from 144.25 up to 146.00 which is under today's low. Closed 148.35, up 2.50.
Position: Long 142.20 (6.20).
Projection: 154.00.
SEPT COCOA: It keeps rallying at a "snail's pace" of late. Long term the bull move is very intact with nothing negative developing but the way the daily has been trading lately, I think the bull move is "tired." Closed 31.47, up 25.
OCT SUGAR: I have attempted to sell it more than once. It came within 4 ticks of my sell price today. I'll try again tomorrow. Closed 12.71, down 21.
METALS COMMENTS:SEPT COPPER: It rallied to the 385.00 resistance and has been stopped by that twice. One supportive issue is that it rallied over the 20 day moving average last week and has held. As it stands now, it needs a breakout over 385.00 to see a major rally. Just watching. Closed 378.65, down 2.15.
AUG GOLD: Since the last Update it managed to get over the 20 day moving average and stayed above it both Thursday and Friday on the daily chart. Monday it collapsed under it again. It attempted to get over it again today and did close over it. However, the overall trend is still down since the high made in March and for a change, today the range was small enough to afford a lower risk trade than normal in gold. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 891.60, up 4.40.
SEPT SILVER: It continues to be stuck in a range and reached the high end (17.750) last last week. It collapsed yesterday and found itself at the lower end of the range (16.750) early on. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 16.739, down 15.70.
MISC. MARKETS COMMENTS:AUG CRUDE OIL: It is the cat with nine lives - or more. It continues to consolidate and closed out the day at the high end of its range. Just watching. Closed 137.00, up 26.
SEPT JAPANESE YEN: I attempted to sell it today. It did reach my sell price during the night session but not during the day. Since it did trigger a sell signal, I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 93.11, down 10.
SEPT DOLLAR INDEX: Last time it was correcting after a third wave up. That correction is still in the process but after a low at 73.29 on Friday, each test of that low has held. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 73.60, down 21.
SEPT EUROCURRENCY: It persists in holding the 154.00 support. It has done so for over a week. It has also made two attempts to get over the 20 day moving average. The first attempt on Friday failed on Monday. It attempted again today and succeeded. Just watching. Closed 155.11, up 56.
SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR: I attempted to sell it twice. It rallied instead and triggered a buy today. Just watching. Closed 98.64, up 23.SEP BONDS: They continue to rally and will run into resistance at around 114.16. That is also where their downtrend line intersects. Just watching. Closed 114.04, up 27.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The information in this email may be confidential and/or legally privileged. It is intended solely for the addressee. Access to this email by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender and destroy any copies of this message and any attachments. Any unauthorized use or dissemination or any action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance on it, is prohibited and may be unlawful. This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment product.
All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
