MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 20, 2008)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

 

USING INSIDE & OUTSIDE DAYS:  My Update reviews the markets from a technical standpoint.  I often use inside/outside days for market entry combined with other technical indicators.  Please keep in mind the following:

1. When attempting to buy from an inside/outside day and the formation gives a sell instead, I normally cancel the buy order.  The same applies if I'm trying to sell from an inside/outside day and a buy is triggered instead, I cancel the sell order.  Such action usually represents a market in conflict so I wait for further clarification.
2. A potential signal from an inside/outside day is good for that day only.

 POTENTIAL PROJECTIONS:  The purpose of including potential projections is to give you a potential only.  It is not a target written in stone.  Each trader should take into consideration their trading goals and equity situation.  The projection is a guideline only.

IMPORTANT:  CHANGES IN STOPS:  Please be aware that during the day I will move stops as soon as possible to protect profits.   Consequently, there will be times when I will show a stop exit that is different than the one published in the last Update or Trade Alert.  Only existing clients are notified of these changes during the day.

ELECTRONIC MARKETS:   Please note that I use charts for the electronic markets versus the pit for all commodities and enter electronically.  I DO NOT place orders for entry for the night session.  I wait until the day session or until I arrive in the morning (7:00 am cst).  If the market is at or near my entry at that time, I will place the order.  I ALWAYS have stops placed for the night session. 

TRADE ALERT:
(PLEASE NOTE THAT ALL TRADES ARE GOOD FOR FRIDAY.  ALL TRADES ARE FOR THE DAY SESSION ONLY.  DO NOT PLACE FOR THE NIGHT SESSION).

Sell July hogs.  Sell 73.87 stop.  Protective stop 75.75.  Potential projection 69.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On the monthly chart, hogs attempted to rally over the 77.50 resistance and have failed again.  This level has produced extensive sell-offs in the past.
2.  The weekly chart has a key reversal top.
3.  The daily chart is in a downtrend.  It has had one major wave down and appears to be starting a second major wave down.
4.  On the daily chart the recent rally was stopped by the 20 day moving average and resistance.
5.  Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

Sell December cotton.  Sell 78.93 stop.  Protective stop 82.34.  Potential projection 72.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On the monthly chart, cotton rallied to the 75.00 resistance (basis the July contract) and started to sell off.
2.  On the monthly chart, the major rally that peaked in March formed a key reversal top.
3.  On the weekly chart cotton rallied to the 76.00 resistance and sold off under the 72.00 resistance. 
4.  On the weekly chart, cotton is back under the 20 day moving average.
5.  On the daily chart, the recent rally formed a key reversal top indicating a trend change from up to down.
6.  Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

Buy September coffee.  Buy 142.20 stop.  Protective stop 138.55.  Potential projection 154.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  Both the monthly and weekly charts continue to hold at the 130.00 support.
2.  On the weekly chart, a buy signal would push coffee back over the 135.00 resistance (basis the July contract).
3.  On the weekly chart, since the March low, coffee has been in an uptrend.  It has had two small waves up.  The recent sell-off could be a set up for a third wave up.
4.  On the daily chart, coffee is holding in the same support area that held the market last December and produced a extensive move.
5.  On the daily chart, coffee has held above the 20 day moving average for four days in a row.
6.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

Sell October sugar.  Sell 12.59 stop.  Protective stop 13.07.  Potential projection 10.80.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On the monthly chart, the high made in Feb. 2006 formed a key reversal top suggesting a major trend change from up to down.
2.  On the monthly chart the rally that peaked in Feb. 2008 formed a key reversal top. 
3.  The monthly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
4.  On the weekly chart, sugar is pushing into resistance going back to October 2005.
5.  On the daily chart, sugar started selling off from the 13.00 resistance.
6.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

GRAIN COMMENTS:

JUL CORN:  With further sell-off, the weekly will form a key reversal top.  On the daily chart it cannot get over 760.  The monthly chart looks like a rubberband stretched beyond all reason.  Will we get a correction?  It would be healthy for the market and the charts are finally starting to set up the potential.  Watching closely.  Closed  727 3/4, down 18 1/2.

JUL WHEAT:  The monthly chart looks as though wheat has more potential to the upside.  The weekly does not.  Wheat had resistance at 900 and that is what stopped it on the weekly.  On the daily it has attempted to get over 920 without success - which is a resistance area.  This rally almost formed a double top but not quite.  I suspect wheat will at least test the 840 breakout area.  Closed 881, down 23.

JUL BEANS:   I tried to sell them yesterday.  They rallied instead and triggered a buy.  That was negated today.  I want to sell them today but based on today's action i'd have to risk too much.  Watching closely.  Closed 1545 1/2, down 10 1/2.

JUL MEAL:  It continues to remain strong and is not giving any indication on the charts of topping yet.  Just watching.  Closed 419.50, up 2.40.   

JUL BEAN OIL:   It continues to be negative long term and has a sell signal on the daily chart that has been following through.  It stopped at the 20 day moving average today.  It has some support at 63.00 but  there is a lot of work under it at roughly 61.00.  Just watching.  Closed 64.12, down 1.34.

MEAT COMMENTS:

JUL HOGS:   I attempted to sell them today.  They rallied instead and are pushing into extensive resistance that starts at approximately 75.50 on up.  Last time I mentioned that they were a confused market.  They still seem to be.  After pushing into that resistance, they sold off to close lower on the day, forming an outside day.  I'll try to sell them again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 74.27, down 57.

AUG CATTLE:  After the high at 104.45, they have been struggling.  They have not been able to sustain themselves over 104.00 for four days now.  Today was an outside day.  Just watching.  Closed 103.45, down 45.

SOFTS COMMENTS:  

DEC COTTON:   A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 79.80, down 2.25.  

SEPT ORANGE JUICE: I tried to buy it yesterday.  It sold off instead and is back under the 20 day moving average.  It is close to testing the contract low in the 108.00 area.  Both the monthly and weekly charts look pretty pathetic too with this recent action.  The daily is suggesting a new wave down.  The key will be if it can hold the low at 107.55.  Closed 111.35, down 4.10.

SEPT  COFFEE:  The stop was reached yesterday.  Now I know why I don't drink much coffee!  On a more serious note,  it tried for the 142.00 resistance again today and didn't get over it.  It is still consolidating and if it makes it, the move could be good.  I will try again tomorrow to buy it.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 139.65, up 80.
Position:  Long 138.10 (6.16).  Exit 138.00 (6.18).  Loss $37.50.  

SEPT COCOA:  Its rally has finally "cooled off" so to speak.  On the daily chart the current wave up has met projections but the long term charts are not telling me anything.  Just watching.  Closed 31.06, up 6

OCT SUGAR:  Switching to October contract but first I'll finish up with the July.  It rallied to 11.74 today.  My projection was 11.80.  Considering how fickle the markets are I took profit at 11.61.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 12.71, down 21.
Position:  Long 10.55 (6.12).  Exit 11.61 (6.19).  Profit $1187.20.
Projection 11.80.

METALS COMMENTS:   

SEPT COPPER:   Switching to Sept. contract.  It rallied over the first level of resistance around 375.00.  The next level is at 385.00.  Today's high 381.10.  Just watching.  Closed 377.80, up 3.05.

AUG GOLD:  It has a buy signal and has pushed over the 20 day moving average.  It reached the 910.00 resistance and stopped.  When all is said and done, it is still stuck in a range and it is backing off from the high end of that range again.  Long term the charts remain negative.  Just watching.  Closed 904.20, up 10.70.

SEPT SILVER:  Switching to the Sept. contract.  I attempted to sell it.  It rallied instead.  It has a buy signal and is now over the 20 day moving average.  As with the gold, it is still stuck in a range.  Long term the charts are negative as well.  Just watching.  Clsoed 17.578, up 13.20.

MISC. MARKETS COMMENTS:   

AUG MINI CRUDE OIL:  Switching to Aug. contract.  First I'll finish up with the July.   It triggered a sell yesterday but the protective stop was reached the same day.  It tried to rally again today, but was stopped by the 138.00 resistance in the August.   It sold off to the lower end of the range it has formed.   It held at the 20 day moving average that intersects at 131.88.  It was also an outside day.  Unfortunately, you'd have to risk too much on the trade, even with a mini.  If it does sell off from this level, the consolidation should produce a good sell-off.   Closed 132.60, 4.57.
Position:  Short 132.80 (6.18).  Exit 135.30 (6.18).  Loss $1200.

SEPT JAPANESE YEN:  It keeps consolidating between 92.50 up to 93.50.  I see nothing to do yet.  Closed 93.06, down 11.

SEPT DOLLAR INDEX:   It appears to have had three waves up and is in the process of a correction after the third wave up.  It has built a good base.  Waiting to buy.  Closed 73.87, up 3.

SEPT EUROCURRENCY:  It keeps pushing up against the 20 day moving average but cannot get over it.  It has also held 154.00 for three days now.  Long term it is still bearish but the daily has been stuck in a range between 157.00 down to approximately 153.00.  Just watching.  Closed 154.27, down 31.

SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR:  True to form, it is how rallying since it reached the lower end of its massive range and held.  I see nothing to do as the long term charts are toppy.  Closed 98.45, up 36.

SEP BONDS:  They rallied to the 113.16 resistance area and sold off.  I'm waiting to sell but do not see anything to go by yet on the daily chart.  Closed 112.195, down 11.5.

 

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The information in this email may be confidential and/or legally privileged.  It is intended solely for the addressee.  Access to this email by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized.  If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender and destroy any copies of this message and any attachments.  Any unauthorized use or dissemination or any action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance on it, is prohibited and may be unlawful.  This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment product.
All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade.  Actual results may vary.