MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WEDNESDAY, JUNE 18, 2008)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
USING INSIDE & OUTSIDE DAYS: My Update reviews the markets from a technical standpoint. I often use inside/outside days for market entry combined with other technical indicators. Please keep in mind the following:
- When attempting to buy from an inside/outside day and the formation gives a sell instead, I normally cancel the buy order. The same applies if I'm trying to sell from an inside/outside day and a buy is triggered instead, I cancel the sell order. Such action usually represents a market in conflict so I wait for further clarification.
- A potential signal from an inside/outside day is good for that day only.
POTENTIAL PROJECTIONS: The purpose of including potential projections is to give you a potential only. It is not a target written in stone. Each trader should take into consideration their trading goals and equity situation. The projection is a guideline only.
IMPORTANT: CHANGES IN STOPS: Please be aware that during the day I will move stops as soon as possible to protect profits. Consequently, there will be times when I will show a stop exit that is different than the one published in the last Update or Trade Alert. Only existing clients are notified of these changes during the day.
ELECTRONIC MARKETS: Please note that I use charts for the electronic markets versus the pit for all commodities and enter electronically. I DO NOT place orders for entry for the night session. I wait until the day session or until I arrive in the morning (7:00 am cst). If the market is at or near my entry at that time, I will place the order. I ALWAYS have stops placed for the night session.
TRADE ALERT:
(PLEASE NOTE THAT ALL TRADES ARE GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY. ALL TRADES ARE FOR THE DAY SESSION ONLY. DO NOT PLACE FOR THE NIGHT SESSION).
Sell July beans. Sell 1523 stop. Protective stop 1567. Potential projection 1400 support. (This is a high risk trade).
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart beans are in the same area that produced an extensive sell-off in March.
2. On the weekly chart, they are starting to form a preliminary key reversal top.
3. On the weekly chart, they are back under the 1570 resistance that they attempted to get over.
4. On the daily chart, they formed a key reversal top yesterday.
5. On the daily chart, they are in the same area that produces an extensive sell-off in March.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Buy September orange juice. Buy 120.15 stop. Protective stop 114.50. Potential projection 128.00 resistance.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. Both the monthly and weekly charts continue to hold above the 110 support.
2. On the weekly chart, orange juice rallied over the downtrend formed since the March 2007 last week. Last week's low tested that trendline.
3. On the daily chart, the recent sell-off held at the 20 day moving average. That is supportive to the market.
4. On the daily chart orange juice has rallied over and is holding above the downtrend formed since the January high suggesting a potential trend change from down to up.
5. On the daily chart the recent sell-off tested and held the 115.00 support.
Sell July silver. Sell 16.800 stop. Protective stop 17.235. Potential projection 16.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. Both the monthly and weekly charts have key reversal tops suggesting a major trend change from up to down.
2. On the weekly chart, attempts to rally over the 20 day moving average continue to fail.
3. On the daily chart, silver has been in a downtrend since the March 17 high. It has two completed waves down and the rally that peaked 5.27 appears to be the set up for a third wave down that has yet to follow through.
4. On the daily chart, silver is at the high end of the range it has been stuck in and attempts to rally over the 20 day moving average continue to fail.
5. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell July mini crude oil. Sell 132.80 stop. Protective stop 135.30. Potential projection 128.00 support.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, the current wave up has exceeded projections suggesting an over bought market.
2. On the weekly chart, crude oil is forming a preliminary key reversal top.
3. On the daily chart, crude oil formed a key reversal top yesterday.
4. The daily chart triggered a sell signal today.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Long September coffee from 135.60 up to 138.00.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
JUL CORN: Last time I pointed out the potential of a projection up to 780 based on the monthly chart. So far, it has reached 760. All the news about the flooded fields is out and old news at this point. The extent of the damage obviously isn't fully determined yet and that speculation is probably the main driving force to the market now. The aggressive rallies appear to be tapering off which suggests that much of the situation could already be in the market. Closed 742 1/4, up 9 3/4.
JUL WHEAT: It started to sell off yesterday but has not had much follow through. It has resistance at 920. and got close to that yesterday before selling off. It is also pushing into resistance on the weekly chart. A sell-off should set up another opportunity to buy. It has come out of its main downtrend formed since the March 13 high on the daily chart. Watching closely. Closed 898 1/4, up 21 3/4.
JUL BEANS: Long term they took out their previous historic high (1570) and negated the sell signal. On the daily chart they have not yet taken out the high in the July beans (1595 3/4). On all the charts they are in the same area that produced an extensive sell-off in March. Today they formed an inside day. See Trade Alert for details. Just watching. Closed 1558, up 24.
JUL MEAL: The current high is 416.50. Potential projections to 420-430 still remain intact. On the long term chart, the previous historic high has been taken out. Today was an outside day. Just watching. Closed 415.00, up 9.20.
JUL BEAN OIL: The 65.00 level that is now support held the market yesterday when it sold off. It did go lower today (64.73) but is back over the 65.00 support today. It also triggered a sell signal from yesterday's outside day. I did not suggest a trade as there is too much support under the market. I prefer to watch for now. Closed 65.80, up 15.
MEAT COMMENTS:
JUL HOGS: I was attempting to sell hogs. They triggered a buy instead. They immediately negated that buy but are now, once again, rallying??? I would say that is one confused market. Just watching. Closed 74.62, up 1.75.
AUG CATTLE: They continue to make new highs. The projection to 102.65 has been exceeded. The current high 104.45. Just watching. Closed 103.60, up 15.SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: Switching to Dec. First I'll finish with the July. I raised the stop to 74.00 in last night's Trade Alert. It was reached today with a profit. I still feel there is more to this move and am waiting for a sell-off as an opportunity to buy again. Cotton formed a key reversal top today so possibly there will be further correction. Closed 80.95, down 1.26.
Position: Long 70.10 (6.12). Exit 74.00 (6.17). Profit $1950.
SEPT ORANGE JUICE: Switching to Sept. I was attempting to buy OJ in my last report. It triggered a sell instead. That sell has now been negated. I will try again. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 117.75, up 3.35.
SEPT COFFEE: I tried twice to buy it and finally did yesterday. It rallied to 142.00 and formed an inside day today. Getting over 142.00 would be very supportive for a further rally. Move stops up from 135.60 up to 138.00. Closed 141.75, up 2.65.
Position: Long 138.10 (6.16).
Projection: 144.00.
SEPT COCOA: The daily chart formed a double top today. On the monthly chart, the current wave up has met projections. And.... the weekly chart is a complete mess. I can't get anything out of it. Just watching. Closed 30.26, unchanged.
JUL SUGAR: I raised the stop to 10.35 in last night's Trade Alert. I raised it again this morning to 10.80. It has continued to rally, reaching 11.13 today. Closed 11.06, up 27.
Position: Long 10.55 (6.12).
Projection: 11.80.
METALS COMMENTS:
JUL COPPER: It has rallied and reached the 370.00 resistance level. It formed an inside day today. Just looking at the chart, copper has so many levels of resistance above it, I would be amazed if copper started a new major move up. But knowing copper, it can do anything! Just watching. Closed 364.95, down 1.60.
AUG GOLD: I lowered the stop to 876.90 for Monday and it was reached on Monday. It rallied up to the 20 day moving average yesterday and backed off. Today was an inside day. It is also back over the support area that it has persistently held for some time. It failed it last week but rallied back into it within a day. Just watching. Closed 886.90, up 60. Position: Short 868.90 (6.12). Exit 876.90 (6.16). Loss $800
JUL SILVER: It is back in the range it had formed since early May between 1750.00 and 1650.00 roughly. It is near the high end of the range and a trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 17.075, down 12.20.
MISC. MARKETS COMMENTS:JUL CRUDE OIL: It has been struggling and consolidating for several days. It attempted to break out and rally yesterday but ended up back in the range it has been stuck in. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 134.01, down 60.
SEPT JAPANESE YEN: It is attempting to hold 93.00 which is in the middle of no where. After drifting lower each day, it is finally trying to start to consolidate. Just watching. Closed 93.07, up 10.
SEPT DOLLAR INDEX: I bought it Monday when it sold off. Stops at 73.80 were reached today. It is giving every indication of forming a bottom and has actually started a near term uptrend. It has completed two waves up. Watching closely. Closed 73.92, down 13.
Position: Long 74.40 (6.16). Exitt 73.80 (6.17). Loss $600.
SEPT EUROCURRENCY: It just does not want to sell off. It persists in holding the 153.00 level. When it attempts to rally, it even manages to close above the 20 day moving average, only to fail soon after. It currently has a sell signal but if it is consolidating, that signal is in jeopardy. Just watching. Clsoed 154.45, up 27.
SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR: It is in the same old routine as usual. It is at the lower end of the range it has been stuck in forever and has started to rally. Long term it continues to look pretty sick but it just doesn't go anywhere. Just watching. Closed 98.18, up 60.SEP BONDS: On Friday I took profit at 111.29.5. About the only good thing going for this market is that the weekly is forming a preliminary double bottom and the daily triggered a buy today from yesterday's inside day. Bonds are in a major downtrend and even though they triggered a buy, I am waiting for a potential rally to sell them again. Closed 112.050, up 1.
Position: Short 112.29.0 (6.12). Exit 111.29.5 (6.13). Profit $984.37.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The information in this email may be confidential and/or legally privileged. It is intended solely for the addressee. Access to this email by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender and destroy any copies of this message and any attachments. Any unauthorized use or dissemination or any action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance on it, is prohibited and may be unlawful. This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment product.
All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
