rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

Tug of War


Dear Trader,

After a vicious tug-of-war throughout the day, stocks finished mostly lower. On the bullish side of the rope were lower oil prices, while the other side was being pulled by Bernanke's inflation comments.

For the first time in a long time equity investors were told by the chairman of the Fed that he may need to raise interest rates to combat inflation. His remarks raised expectations that the central bank might hike interest rates later this year to curb inflation; more expensive borrowing could jeopardize an economic rebound. That said, I was wondering if Bernanke actually has the stuff to pull it off. Was his comment just rhetoric to support the dollar? Is Bernanke now doing the job of the Treasury?

But not everyone believes it's just rhetoric, not yet anyhow. "The concern for investors is that the Fed has now confirmed a shift in focus toward fighting inflation, said Ken Tower , market strategist at Covered Bridge Tactical. "The question now becomes when (not if) they will begin raising interest rates. That suggests there will be no further steps to bolster economic growth. The economy is on its own.

Imagine that " for the first time in decades the economy will be "on its own, to sink or swim without the lifeboat of the Federal Reserve there to save it. Well, I just don't believe that yet because when Wall Street whines loud enough, the Fed will surely go back to what works best: "Jump you say? How high???

There something of a tug-of-war between inflationary and deflationary forces as well. Traders remain concerned that high energy prices will not just aggravate inflation, but also slow consumer spending, which slows economic growth, which is deflationary.

"If you bet against the consumer over the past several years, you would've been wrong. The consumer has held up surprisingly well. However, at some point there is a breaking point. I think some people believe we may be approaching that, said Chris Colarik, a portfolio manager at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia .

Today's Trading Tip:

"When it comes to long term investing, don't count out the consumer (Hint: Wal-Mart, RIM, Apple, etc)!!!"

Click Here to Learn more about how I can help you improve your trading...


Bookmark and Share

Recent articles from this author



About the author


Larry Levin is the Founder & President of Secrets of Traders- a commodity trading educational firm dedicated to helping traders succeed in the futures markets.

Larry trades the S&P 500 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world’s largest and most diverse financial exchange. Larry has been trading his own account or company's proprietary accounts since 1993, trading an average of 2500-3000 E-mini S&P contracts a day.

He has been in and around the S&P 500 futures pit at the CME for almost 20 years, where he started as a runner for Lind-Waldock. Larry moved up through the ranks from runner to phone clerk to desk manager of the S&P desk. He began trading his own account in 1994.

In 1998 he formed Trading Advantage, a publishing company enabling him to distribute his self-authored trading course, The Secrets of Floor Traders. In 2000 he sold the rights to the course Secrets of Floor Traders to Secrets of Traders, LLC to market his products for him. This transaction has allowed him to trade for a living full time while continuing to distribute his message. He recently developed his newest trading course, ‘The Secrets of an Electronic Futures Trader’; designed to give the electronic futures trader the competitive edge needed to succeed.

Larry appears regularly on CNBC, Bloomberg Television, Rob TV, BizRadio, as well as various other media outlets, providing his expertise and insight on the current market.

Larry’s lifelong vision is teaching people to learn how to trade the right way.

For more information contact:

Chelsey Krull
Director of Business Development
312.235.2572
chelsey@secretsoftraders.com
Chicago Board of Trade
141 W. Jackson Boulevard, Suite 2838
Chicago, IL 60604

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.

Copyright ©2005-2010 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Legal  •   Privacy Statement