Price: 104.11
| Resistance: | 104.40 | 104.77 | 105.05 | 105.43 |
| Support: | 103.75 | 103.54 | 103.12 | 102.72 |
| Bias: | While 103.75-90 supports we should see 105.05 before a correction else expect losses to 102.72 |
| Daily Bullish: | I was not expecting a direct reversal yesterday but the break above the 103.15 pivot resistance certainly made its mark to reach 104.37. Indeed, if this is part of a larger move higher then we should see the 103.75-90 area support any pullback. From there look for a move back up through 104.37 to reach 105.05 where a further correction will be due. Only above 105.10 extends to the 105.43-68 area. |
| MT Bullish: | 23rd May: An earlier than expected break higher was seen but this now needs to remain above 103.75-90 to trigger gains to 105.05 initially and after a further correction to 105.43-68 en route 106.82. |
| Daily Bearish: | Although the recovery came earlier than expected it hasn’t quite yet broken resistance that would imply the downside is over. Indeed, I feel that yesterday’s 104.37 high should be the most we see in a bearish structure. Thus, if price breaks back below 103.75 the picture will turn once again for 103.10-15 and possibly back to the 102.56-72 lows. At this point it should hold to generate further consolidation. |
| MT Bearish: | 23rd May: We didn’t reach as low as I expected and while the pattern is stretched any loss now of 103.75 would heighten the risk of either sideways trading or a resumption of the downtrend thru 102.56 -> 101.12 |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
23rd May
The reversal from 102.72 was annoying. We now have two possible scenarios:
Bullish: We have seen a flat Wave –x- end a little early and thus we are in the midst of a new Wave –a- higher to around 105.43-68 followed by Wave –b- and eventually Wave –c- to the daily 50% retracement in Wave (iv) at 106.82. Within this a break above 104.37 would imply extension in minor Wave iii to the 261.8% projection at 105.05 before Wave iv and Wave v develop.
Bearish: We have seen Wave –a- of Wave –iii- at 102.72. The pullback has been a 61.8% retracement in Wave –b- and thus we should see no higher. Wave –b- could either have been completed or may change into a triangle before Wave –c- moves below 102.72 for the minimum projection in Wave –iii- at 101.12.
Ian Copsey
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