Price: 0.9578
| Resistance: | 0.9293 | 0.9637 | 0.9666 | 0.9696 |
| Support: | 0.9560 | 0.9525 | 0.9509 | 0.9470 |
| Bias: | I suspect the 0.9593 area should cap for a second pullback lower |
| Daily Bullish: | Yesterday was a bit of a nothing day with a move higher this morning looking to test the 0.9593 resistance. At this point I feel it will hold to generate a further correction lower. Thus only a clean break of 0.9593-00 would imply direct extension higher to 0.9637 minimum and probably the 0.9666 target resistance. Take care as this could form a larger top. Next resistance is at 0.9720. |
| MT Bullish: | 19th May: The break through 0.9443-71 raises the chance that we shall see the 0.9666 target and at most 0.9720. However, I do feel long term momentum is failing and a major high is due. |
| Daily Bearish: | While we did see price move lower yesterday it really didn’t get very far. However, the sharp recovery this morning should reach the next larger resistance at 0.9593 and I feel it stands a good chance of capping. A move back below 0.9560 will assist through 0.9525 and eventually to the ideal retracement target at 0.9465-75. However, this should hold to generate further gains. Below 0.9460 sees losses to 0.9415-25 then 0.9406 and 0.9362… |
| MT Bearish: | 19th May: Friday’s solid rally means we can look at a higher reversal point and this appears to be at 0.9465 with any breach allowing slippage to 0.9415-25, 0.9406 and 0.9362. |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
19th May
Friday’s aggressive rally seems to suggest that the 0.9274 low was Wave –iv- and the 0.9290 low as a very deep Wave –b- of Wave –v-.
This structure does concern slightly since it is unusual to see this depth of correction within a Wave –b- position. Thus I need to review.
The rally to 0.9568 was a 238.2% projection in minor Wave iii with a 261.8% projection being at 0.9593 level being a 261.8% projection. Thus I am looking for a correction in Wave iv which currently has a 50% retracement at 0.9465-75. We have to be a little flexible in case Wave iii extends to 0.9593 first. Following this we should see the 66.7% projection in Wave –v- at 0.9666.
Ian Copsey
See Also
- Pro Commentary
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