Price: 1.5475
| Resistance: | 1.5485 | 1.5505 | 1.5522 | 1.5569 |
| Support: | 1.5435 | 1.9394 | 1.5371 | 1.5333 |
| Bias: | There seems a strong risk of a 1.5430-1.5525 range |
| Daily Bullish: | Price proved stronger than expected yesterday and this is providing a problem in fitting it into a bearish structure for a marginal new low. However, even in a bullish structure it still seems as if we have some consolidation likely. A move above 1.5485 would allow a move to 1.5519-25. This should cap and allow a drift back lower. Thus a stronger bullish stance will require a beak of 1.5525 and if seen would generate gains through to the 1.5569 high and probably to 1.5635-51. |
| MT Bullish: | 16th May: The longer price fails to move lower the stronger the chance that we have seen an intermediate low. A break of 1.5525 and then 1.5569 would see gains through to 1.5651 – possibly 1.5737 -73. |
| Daily Bearish: | The downside just isn’t really seeing a peep right now. I am finding it increasingly difficult to fit the current consolidation into a bearish structure. Thus only look for additional losses if we see a break below 1.5394. If this occurs it stands a greater chance of seeing follow-through to 1.5283-03 which should cause a pullback. Below would suggest the 1.5154-86 target is then possible. |
| MT Bearish: | 15th May: The expectation of a decline to the 1.5140-80 area is being stretched somewhat now. Only loss of 1.5350 would cause a retest of 1.5283 while breach would then resurrect the 1.5154-86 target. |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
15th May
The pullback from 1.5569 has hardly been strong and appears to have developed in two ABC patterns already. The implication is that the decline is corrective only. However we should be ready for a third ABC pattern in a triple three and for this we should note the prior Wave b at 1.5365 and the 76.4% retracement in Wave x at 1.5350. While this holds it should imply time for the next move higher.
Thus only look for the 1.5154-86 target if the 1.5350 support breaks but also take care at the 1.5283 low.
16th May
While it’s possible the 1.5394 low was a Wave i and 1.5544 was Wave ii there appears a growing risk that we shall be seeing a triple-three recovery in Wave (b).
Ian Copsey
See Also
- Pro Commentary
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