Price: 104.68
| Resistance: | 104.90 | 105.27 | 105.68 | 106.06 |
| Support: | 104.45 | 104.28 | 104.00 | 103.65 |
| Bias: | 105.27 is likely to cap but while 104.40-50 supports we should see additional gains to 105.68 |
| Daily Bullish: | Gains have developed in line with expectations but haven’t quite met the 105.27 first target, stalling just below the 104.95 level. I still feel we should see this progress to 105.27 but this should cause a pullback. While this remains above 104.40-50 we should then see the next leg higher to around the 105.68 peak but look for a slightly larger correction from there. Only a direct break above would take price more directly towards the eventual 106.82 target. |
| MT Bullish: | 12th May: Losses have moved down to 102.56 around where there is quite a strong pivot support area. I suspect this may well provide the basis for a final move to 105.57-68 and followed by 106.82 before a larger reversal. |
| Daily Bearish: | The upside is progressing well and until otherwise proven we should treat any declines as corrective only. Indeed, the 105.27 level should provide such a pullback but any losses from here shouldn’t move below the 104.40-50 area – at most the larger pivot support at 104.00. Only consider the possibility of stronger losses on a break of this pivot support. If seen then next support will be around 103.25-35 followed by 102.18-56. |
| MT Bearish: | 7th May: I have to remain cautious here as I still feel the 106.82 target is achievable. We seem to be seeing a deeper correction with supports at 102.84 and maximum 102.18. Only below 102.00 would signal direct losses. |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
14th May
The recovery from 102.56 is encouraging with a minor Wave iii target at 105.27. While any Wave iv remains above 104.40-50 we should see Wave v develop towards the 105.68 high to complete Wave –a-.
Clearly this should be followed by a Wave –b- and finally a Wave –c- towards the 50% retracement in daily Wave (iv) at 106.82.
This would complete a triple three and should ideally be accompanied by a bearish divergence in the daily chart as well and in shorter time frame chart also.
Ian Copsey
See Also
- Pro Commentary
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