Price: 1.9442
| Resistance: | 1.9474 | 1.9493 | 1.9546 | 1.9572 |
| Support: | 1.9428 | 1.9389 | 1.9363 | 1.9335 |
| Bias: | While the 1.9474-93 caps there is still room for one more decline to the ideal 1.9300-35 target |
| Daily Bullish: | Once again the downside developed well although did overshoot slightly the 1.9382 intermediate target. It does confuse slightly but I still feel the downside has legs for one more decline. Thus only look for a stronger move higher if the 1.9493-05 area gives way. If seen then we should see stronger gains to 1.9546 and probably 1.9572 at least. Take care here as this could cause a correction. Breach extends gains to 1.9631-66 again. |
| MT Bullish: | 15th May: With losses having come within a whisker of the ideal 1.9300-35 downside target we must be aware of the risk of reversal higher. Back above 1.9505 and 1.9572 would see 1.9631-66 and probably higher. |
| Daily Bearish: | Further downside progress seen but we are close to a potential low. To see this last leg lower I’d prefer to see the 1.9474 resistance hold but should allow for 1.9494-05. This resistance should allow a move back below 1.9428 to 1.9389 at least – take care here in case a sideways consolidation develops. More likely we shall see a direct test of the 1.9301-35 target from where a larger recovery is anticipated. Only breach would trigger stronger losses to 1.9223, 1.9175 and 1.9097. |
| MT Bearish: | 14th May: The downside has developed and should make its way down to the 1.9300-35 area. However, bullish divergences are forming in the daily chart and I suspect this will hold for a stronger recovery. |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
15th May
Progress is being made in Wave (c) which has a wave equality target at 1.9301 while the old daily low was at 1.9335. Within the daily flat correction I am looking at we should see this support hold and generate a stronger move higher.
Within the decline I count yesterday’s low at 1.9363 as Wave iii and thus while Wave iv remains below the 50%-58.6% retracement at 1.9474-93 the way is open for the last decline.
A break above 1.9505 would cause an earlier reversal higher.
Below 1.9269 would maintain stronger losses for the 161.8% projection in Wave (c) at 1.9097.
Ian Copsey
See Also
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