When I see recommendations to sell the "King of Commodities", yes I am speaking crude oil, because "the price is too high", that is a signal for me to buy more. Reason being, unless I have a fundamental and or technical reason to sell a market, the "price"is never too high. I learned this lesson in my first year on the trading floor, when as a new floor trader I traded many markets making new contract highs. When a market keeps going up for whatever reason and standing in the trading pit watching it keep going up and saying "the market is wrong the price is too high" will allow you to make a small fortune. The problem is you started with a large fortune.

I called crude oil the King because this is one of the top 5 Bull Markets I have ever seen in my 35 years. I have written many times at insidefutures.com and elsewhere about some of the best trending markets are being witnessed the last 2 years and continue at this time. Yes, I have seen some really good ones over the years, but now we see many at the same time. Crude is the best one of them all. With record breaking prices today, the market will continue to go up until it does not any more. Selling the crude oil is like trying to pick up nickels in front of a steam roller. Bottom Line: do not sell a market for price alone! If you do, you could watch your account lose over $40,000 per 1 contract since the settlement on January 23, 2008. So if you get your big break and the market crashes $20 a barrel in 1 day, you will get half your money back. If you are on the right side of a trend that is one thing, but fading (doing the opposite) the King or any market making contract highs, let alone all time highs, can be dangerous to your account health. You can read more along these lines on past articles written insidefutures.com past articles such as "Insights to all Time Highs" and "Food for Thought".

SOYBEANS yesterday after the close revealed through the USDA weekly crop progress report a very bullish figure for the market to take into consideration. As of 5/11/08, 11% of the soybeans have been planted vs. 5% last week, 26% last year, and compared to the  5 year average of 29%. IL. and IA. are well behind, IN. too! Those 3 states are the main growing states for soybeans. Corn progress was better than expected, this will support beans with less corn shifting to beans. Bears Beware if Wet Weather next week.

 Now that we know that the corn is getting into the ground, I am not as worried that there will be a shift from corn to soybean planting, which would have meant more soybeans down the road. With the new crop soybeans having a very tight 185 million bushel carryout for 2008/09 (last week's Supply/Demand report and was 100 million less than expected) soybeans have no room for error.  Shave 2.5 bushels off each acre of this crop and you will have no soybeans.

Plenty of weather ahead, and I am not seeing premium in the July options yet. As a matter of fact, there was willing sellers all day until the close. This will change soon if we can get above $14- $14.25. This has been a great bull market and has had a correction as with all commodities except "The King" in mid March, but since has been healthy.  I do not feel that soybeans can get over $16, but with weather problems, the sky is the limit. Remember, Minneapolis Wheat traded $24 and sent many to account closures because the price was too high. Yes, it came kind of down to earth, but their accounts were gone long before they hit their highs and came down.

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