I guess it only serves to highlight how wild and wacky the price action in commodities has become in the last year, when frozen concentrated orange juice is actually trading rather reasonably and rather technically. The fundamentals are negative. (That goes without saying, but I get paid by the word.) Truly, with the increasing cost of the fuel that gets the product to stores-the same stores where consumers are not buying OJ in droves and where you can stand in front of the juice freezer frozen (not from cold, but from the sheer number of choices one has for the breakfast table pitcher)-it is hard to see how OJ can sustain any type of rally.

Interestingly, Brazilian imports into Florida ports were up 15% in the first two months of 2008, which is hard to view as anything other than bearish. Technically, the picture is not so bearish. We are smack dab in the middle of this channel that we have been in for the last few weeks. Tuesday's market action highlights the reluctance of this market to stay below the shorter-term moving averages, and we see a close above the 50 day moving average. Closes over the 50 day moving average can sometimes spur longer-term traders to enter new long positions. This recent technical action, combined with what has happened over the course of the last few weeks, may be pointing toward a change in trend as we move into the hurricane season. For options traders, I continue to like call options to position for hurricane season. Futures traders can wait for a pull back to test support near the bottom of the channel line (which comes in near 115.50 - 116.00) to take long entries.

The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.