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Blue Monday


There was more than one reason for today's pullback on the major indices. Microsoft is walking away from the Yahoo merger. Bank of America may be walking away from the Countrywide purchase. Oil exploded to new highs and GM's share price was pummeled today following another strike. 

Workers represented by the United Auto Workers went on strike Monday at a Fairfax, Kan. General Motors Corp. plant that makes the automaker's popular Chevy Malibu. It is the second strike by a UAW local against G.M. this spring after a decade without any plant work stoppages. Workers at a G.M. plant that builds fast-selling crossover vehicles near Lansing , Mich. , have been on strike for nearly three weeks. Together, the plants employ about 4,500 people. GM closed down 3.6% today - leading the Dow lower. 

Also weighing on the Dow, shares of Bank of America fell 2.1% after Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. analyst Paul Miller said the bank was likely to negotiate a sharply lower price for Countrywide but should just consider walking away, as Countrywide's loan portfolio "will prove a drag on earnings." This news, along with the breakup of MSFT and YHOO put a damper on the new M&A euphoria. 

Over the weekend came word that Microsoft would no longer pursue Yahoo, as well as any hostile takeover action, after concluding that Yahoo would likely respond with actions that would make the buyout "undesirable." "After careful consideration, we believe the economics demanded by Yahoo do not make sense for us, and it is in the best interests of Microsoft stockholders, employees and other stakeholders to withdraw our proposal," Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said in the statement. 

After three-months of courting, the relationship is over. Yahoo's board of directors rejected the deal, saying the offer undervalued the company's business even after Microsoft offered to raise its bid from $31 per share to $33, or a gross amount of approximately $5 billion. Yahoo co-founder and CEO Jerry Yang believes the price should be $37 per share. 

Hmmm, my chart tells me that before Microsoft offered to buy YHOO, the market though it was only worth about $19.00-share. And Yahoo just might slide back to that original level of around $19, which could expose the company to shareholder lawsuits for failing to secure a deal with Microsoft. In fact, this afternoon a move was already made to replace the board of directors! 

This sounds to me like a has-been is still reliving its old life as if it were still here today. Somebody better tell the overweight ex-beauty queen (YHOO) that she better sprint back to that alter. The glory days are over and she better deal with the hear-and-now. 

Another jump in oil prices raised concerns that inflation could force consumers to cut their spending on discretionary items. Crude oil futures for June delivery surged to a new trading high of $120.21 a barrel on the NYMEX before pulling back. The jump followed news of an attack on a Nigerian oil facility. Hello $4.00-gallon gasoline! 

Unfortunately, all of this news couldn't move the market much. Although the indices closed lower, the majority of the day was as dead as a doornail and not a good trend lower.

 

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called "experts."

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About the author


Larry Levin is the Founder & President of Secrets of Traders- a commodity trading educational firm dedicated to helping traders succeed in the futures markets.

Larry trades the S&P 500 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world’s largest and most diverse financial exchange. Larry has been trading his own account or company's proprietary accounts since 1993, trading an average of 2500-3000 E-mini S&P contracts a day.

He has been in and around the S&P 500 futures pit at the CME for almost 20 years, where he started as a runner for Lind-Waldock. Larry moved up through the ranks from runner to phone clerk to desk manager of the S&P desk. He began trading his own account in 1994.

In 1998 he formed Trading Advantage, a publishing company enabling him to distribute his self-authored trading course, The Secrets of Floor Traders. In 2000 he sold the rights to the course Secrets of Floor Traders to Secrets of Traders, LLC to market his products for him. This transaction has allowed him to trade for a living full time while continuing to distribute his message. He recently developed his newest trading course, ‘The Secrets of an Electronic Futures Trader’; designed to give the electronic futures trader the competitive edge needed to succeed.

Larry appears regularly on CNBC, Bloomberg Television, Rob TV, BizRadio, as well as various other media outlets, providing his expertise and insight on the current market.

Larry’s lifelong vision is teaching people to learn how to trade the right way.

For more information contact:

Chelsey Krull
Director of Business Development
312.235.2572
chelsey@secretsoftraders.com
Chicago Board of Trade
141 W. Jackson Boulevard, Suite 2838
Chicago, IL 60604

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