Price: 1.5526
| Resistance: | 1.5563 | 1.5606 | 1.5645 | 1.5692 |
| Support: | 1.5510 | 1.5479 | 1.5440 | 1.5412 |
| Bias: | We should see the rally reach 1.5598-12 initially and after a pullback to the 1.5630-42 area |
| Daily Bullish: | Gains remained fairly steady over yesterday and are continuing this morning. I suspect these will continue to push higher to 1.5563 – take a little care it could hold – but I still feel we should see a move to the 1.5598-12 area where a slightly deeper correction should develop. While the correction remains above the 1.5530-50 area we should see the rally extend later towards the 1.5630-42 area where I look for an intermediate peak and a correction lower. Next resistance is found at 1.5692. |
| MT Bullish: | 6th May: The bounce from 1.5359 looks encouraging but should suffer a pullback from the 1.5630-42 area. While this remains above 1.5360-00 I still look for the upside to progress over time to 1.5798 & possibly 1.5862. |
| Daily Bearish: | Gains are developing in line with the underlying analysis and I suspect these may stall around the 1.5630-42 area and cause a deeper pullback. Before reaching this resistance we should note the 1.5598-12 area that is likely to produce a correction back to 1.5550. Thus only an earlier break below 1.5510-15 would undermine the upward path for losses through 1.5479 and 1.5440 and down to the 1.5412-25 area. Only below risks a second attempt at the 1.5340-60 support area. |
| MT Bearish: | 5th May: We have reached the downside target and should also note the 1.5295 support. If we see any direct losses that break this area then the break of bullish divergences could cause acceleration lower. |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
6th May
Having met the 1.5340-60 target support I feel this may be labeled Wave (a) lower. Thus the next move will be in 3 waves or a combination of 3 waves in Wave (b).
We appear to be seeing Wave c from yesterday’s 1.5425 corrective low yesterday and this provides a 161.8% projection at 1.5648 which is just 6 points above the Wave b peak of the decline in Wave v and thus the 1.5642-48 area should cause a pullback in what should be Wave x.
Overall a 50% retracement in Wave (b) is at 1.5689, a 61.8% at 1.5766 and a 76.4% at 1.5862. We need monitor the likely stalling point on the way higher.
Ian Copsey
See Also
- Pro Commentary
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