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• The European DJ Stoxx 50 this morning is trading with a solid gain of +1.06% on some increased hopes that the financial market crisis is nearing an end and on some relief over the Q1 earnings season. Asia-Pacific stocks today closed higher: Japan +2.05%, Hong Kong +1.89%, Taiwan +0.49%, Australia +2.05%, Singapore +2.81%, South Korea +1.35%, Bombay +1.81%.
• Unemployment report – Today’s April payroll report is expected to show a -75,000 decline. That would be the fourth consecutive monthly decline, following declines of –80,000 in March, -76,000 in February, and –76,000 in January. Today’s expected report today would produce a cumulative 4-month decline in payrolls of a significant –307,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the April unemployment rate is expected to edge higher by +0.1 point to a 3-year high of 5.2%. That would be up by 0.8 points from the business cycle trough of 4.4% seen in late-2006 and early-2007. During the last recessionary period, the US unemployment rate peaked at 6.3% in June 2003 and the US unemployment rate during this economic slump could easily rise at least as high. The markets will be carefully watching today’s unemployment report as an indicator of whether the US economy is already in a recession and whether the stress on US consumers will increase further. US consumers are already facing high energ y and food prices and US consumer confidence and spending is likely to fade even faster if the US labor market continues to weaken.
• Factory orders – Today’s March factory orders report is expected to show a small increase of +0.2% following the –1.3% decline seen in February. Expectations for today’s factory orders report are based in part on the recently-released March durable goods orders report, which showed an overall decline of –0.3% and a +1.5% increase ex-transportation. The US manufacturing sector is in dire need of some new orders to stave off recession, although new orders are unlikely to emerge in the current environment of worsening consumer and business confidence.

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• June S&Ps this morning are trading +1.30 points as the market treads water ahead of today's April unemployment report. The US stock market yesterday moved higher throughout the day and closed sharply higher (Dow +1.48%, S&P 500 +1.71%, Nasdaq Composite +2.81%).
• Bullish factors for stock prices yesterday included (1) the stronger than expected Apr ISM manufacturing index, (2) the rally in financial companies after Kuwait's $250 billion sovereign wealth fund said it may increase its stakes in Merrill Lynch and Citigroup as it seeks investments in US and European companies battered by subprime-mortgage related losses, (3) the 13% advance in MBIA as the world's largest bond insurer said it has enough capital to retain its AAA rating, (4) the 4.6% gain in Intel as the world's largest chipmaker is stepping up production to meet higher-than-expected demand for Atom, a new processor for low-cost portable computers, and (5) the 3.7% gain in Home Depot as the world's biggest home-improvement retailer will eliminate 1,300 jobs, close 15 stores and scrap plans for 50 others as the company tries to catch up to Lowe's in customer service.
• Bearish factors for stock prices yesterday included (1) the larger than expected rise in weekly unemployment claims and the rise in continuing claims to a 4-year high of 3.019 million, (2) the 3.6% fall in Exxon as the largest oil producer in the US said Q1 net income rose to $10.9 billion or $2.03 a share, lower than the $2.13 a share that analysts were expecting, (3) the 6.1% loss in Apache as the Houston based oil and natural gas producer that operates on five continents reported Q1 profit of $2,99 a share, 3 cents below analysts' estimates, and (4) the sell-off in mining stocks as Freeport-McMoran fell 5.1% and Newmont Mining lost 2.2% as gold prices fell to a 4-month low.
• Sun Microsystems (JAVA) is down -14% in European trading this morning after the company reported a loss of 4 cents per share and announced a cost-cutting plan involving reducing its staff by 2,500 employees, which is 7% of the total staff.
• Morgan Stanley (MS) is down -0.4% in European trading this morning after Merrill Lynch cut its EPS estimate for Morgan Stanley to 80 cents from $1.11 per share and placed a short-term sell on the stock.
• ComScore (SCOR) rallied 14% in after-hours trading yesterday as the supplier of data on Internet companies said 2008 EPS will be at least 75 cents a share, exceeding analysts' estimates of 66 cents a share.
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN) dropped nearly 4% in after-hours trading yesterday as the casino company said Q1 profit dropped because of bigger losses at its baccarat and blackjack tables and because of softness in its Las Vegas business because of the economy

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• June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading -0.005 ticks. June T-notes yesterday rallied early but reversed course late morning and traded lower the remainder of the day to close down -2.5 ticks. Bearish factors for T-note prices yesterday included (1) the rally in the stock market, which drew capital from Treasuries, (2) the comment from the CEO of MBIA, the world's largest bond insurer, that it has enough capital to retain its AAA rating, (3) the bigger than expected rise in the Mar PCE core deflator (+0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y versus expectations of +0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y), (4) the stronger than expected Apr ISM manufacturing index (unchanged at 48.6 versus expectations of -0.6 to 48.0), and (5) the unexpected rise in the Apr ISM prices paid to a 4-year high (+1.0 to 84.5 versus expectations of unchanged at 83.5). Bullish factors for T-note prices yesterday included (1) the larger than expected jump in weekly unemployment claims (+35,000 to 380,000 versus expectat ions of +20,000 to 365,000 and continuing claims +74,000 to a 4-year high of 3.019 mln versus expectations of +5,000 to 2,950 mln), and (2) the bigger than expected decrease in construction spending for Mar (-1.1% versus expectations of -0.7%).
• The dollar is trading mildly higher this morning with the dollar/yen up +0.30 yen the euro/dollar down -0.10 cents. The dollar index yesterday rallied to a 5-week high. Bullish factors for the dollar yesterday included (1) increased speculation that the Fed may pause or stop its current rate-cutting cycle, (2) the comment from Treasury Secretary Paulson that the credit crisis is "closer to the end" than the beginning, and (3) the stronger-than-expected April ISM manufacturing index. Bearish factors for the dollar yesterday included (1) the larger-than-expected rise in weekly unemployment claims, and (2) the statement from Kuwait's Finance Minister that some Gulf Cooperation Council States are considering dropping their currency pegs to the dollar. 
• June crude oil prices this morning are trading +63 cents a barrel and June gasoline is trading +1.13 cents a gallon. June crude oil prices yesterday moved lower and closed down -$0.94 a barrel and June gasoline closed -2.810 cents a gallon, both at 2-week lows. June crude oil has sold off by -$9.93 (8.3%) in the last three sessions. Bearish factors for crude oil prices yesterday included (1) the ending of the 8-day strike by Nigerian oil workers against Exxon-Mobil that halted production of 860,000 bbl of crude oil a day, (2) the rally in the dollar index to a 5-week high, (3) carryover weakness from natural gas prices which fell after the Energy Department showed a larger than expected rise in natural gas stockpiles, and (4) economic concerns as US weekly unemployment claims rose more than forecast.

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Earnings reports (confirmed releases for companies with market caps above $10.0 bln listed by mkt cap): BRK-Berkshire Hathaway (BEST earnings consensus $1,429.67 per share), CVX-Chevron (2.42), VIA-Viacom (.42), DUK-Duke Energy (.31), PPL-PPL Corp. (.63), AMT-American Tower (.08), SRE-Sempra Energy (.92), WY-Weyerhaeuser (-.24), ED-Consolidated Edison (1.00), ICE-IntercontinentalExchange (1.25), AEE-Ameren (.53), WPO-Washington Post (6.58), BWA-BorgWarner (.66), NI-Nisource (.76), KBR-KBR (.34), LZ-Lubrizol (1.07), EAS-Energy East (.86), AIV-Apartment Investment and Management (-.53), SFI-Istar Financial (.81), WHQ-W-H Energy Services (1.20), AWI-Armstrong World Industries (.34), OB-OneBeacon Insurance Group (.42), ALFA-Alfa Corp. (.30), HRP-HRPT Properties (.13), MGLN-Magellan Health Services (.43), REGN-Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (-.32)

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