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Pro Commentary Lite ... 30th April 2008
Wednesday, April 30, 2008

by Ian Copsey of Global Forex Trading

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

 Price:                            161.95

Resistance:162.15162.48162.80163.11
Support:161.61161.41161.10160.80

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias:While 162.48 caps I look for losses to 160.30-40 before a modest recovery

Daily Bullish:Losses seen as expected and while 162.48 caps I envisage more today. Thus only a clean break above 162.48 would provide relief for the 162.76-80 pivot resistance which should also cause a correction. Breach extends gains to 163.11 and possibly 163.48. However, by the time we get up here I feel we should be careful about expecting too much more. Additional resistance is found at 164.04.
MT Bullish:It looks like a peak has been seen and only a break back above 164.96 would imply a move to 165.49-87 but then we need be careful there also. Next resistance is at 166.54-78. (24th April)
Daily Bearish:I am encouraged with yesterday’s losses though these didn’t quite reach as low as I’d hoped but I feel that while the 162.48 area caps there is still downside potential. Back below 161.60 would encourage back to yesterday’s 161.10 low with extension expected to reach the 160.22-40 area where I anticipate a slightly larger correction. Next support is found way down at 159.25.
MT Bearish:It looks more likely that we shall see losses with a break below 162.30-40 triggering stronger follow-through to 161.40, 161.01 and more likely 160.22-40 en route 159.25 at least. (29th April)
 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

25th April

The decline yesterday moved to the 161.8% projection in minor Wave c to 162.90. This should be counted as Wave i.

We now need to establish the end of Wave ii with 163.80-95 being a key pivot resistance that should hold. In the short term we should be wary of a complex Wave ii in a flat or expanded flat. This latter pattern would imply a move down to the 38.2% expansion at 162.56 and then back to the 163.80-95 area.

Direct loss of 162.56 would imply a 176.4% projection in Wave ii to 160.22 at least.

30th April

I feel that we have seen Wave a of Wave –iii- and thus while 162.48 caps we should see extension to the 160.22-40 area.

Ian Copsey

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About the author

In 2006, Ian Copsey joined GFT as a currency analyst writing commentary and interday analysis. Copsey is one of the foremost forex technical analysts in the world with more than 20 years experience in financial markets.

He began his career at Barclays Bank's forex trading room in 1982 then moved to head their foreign exchange sales desk in Hong Kong in 1988 where he spent almost 5 years. It was in Hong Kong that he studied technical analysis and began to provide forecasts on a daily basis.

In 1993 he moved to Tokyo with Dow Jones Telerate as a technical analysis specialist, later as regional manager of technical analysis products, and then continued to develop his unique blend of forecasting tools. During his time in Tokyo, he authored Integrated Technical Analysis (John Wiley & Sons, 1999) which covers his techniques in full. He is an expert indicator and system designer.

Ian created the FXS group of indicators and writes the daily Pro Commentary

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