Price: 1.5625
| Resistance: | 1.5666 | 1.5702 | 1.5733 | 1.5786 |
| Support: | 1.5583 | 1.5553 | 1.5524 | 1.5505 |
| Bias: | I suspect a pullback higher to the 1.5702-33 area and possibly later to 1.5840-63 |
| Daily Bullish: | We didn’t see an earlier pullback on Friday but direct follow-through that stalled 3 points below the next major support at 1.5557. This is providing a pullback and should make its way to the 1.5702-33 resistance area. I suspect the first attempt should hold and cause a pullback lower. Only directly above 1.5733 would extend gains to 1.5786 at least. However, this would imply an eventual test to the 1.5840-63 area but I’m not expecting this to be direct. |
| MT Bullish: | I suspect now that we have seen the final high for the year. There is earlier resistance at 1.5840-63 and also at 1.5875 and 1.5812-25. Only above here would threaten the 1.6018 high again – needs to break. (28th April) |
| Daily Bearish: | A bearish key reversal week seen last week and this does imply eventual follow-through. There a re a few corrective patterns that can develop ahead of extended losses and at this point in time the 1.5497-1.5510 area needs to break cleanly to generate stronger follow-through lower. Support is at 1.5553 and only breach would cause a test of that support area which I see supporting on first test. |
| MT Bearish: | I feel more confident of MT losses but we may require 2-3 days of patience before this develops. I suspect the max upside now is either 1.5840-63 or 1.5812-25. Below 1.5497 sees losses through 1.5340. (28th April) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The move to 1.5553 came in three waves and the 1.5510 low should remain intact on first test I suspect we have seen an initial low that may well be Wave –i-.
A 61.8%-66.7% retracement in Wave –ii- is around 1.5840-63 but we should also allow for a potential retest of the trend line shown. This is currently around 1.5775 but we should also allow for a 76.4% retracement around 1.5912-25.
In this process we should be aware of the potential corrective patterns in Wave –ii- which may include an expanded flat that tests the 1.5510 area.
Ian Copsey
See Also
- Pro Commentary
Unique, comprehensive and insightful analysis
