Price: 1.9744
| Resistance: | 1.9753 | 1.9775 | 1.9809 | 1.9830 |
| Support: | 1.9720 | 1.9684 | 1.9659 | 1.9622 |
| Bias: | Today should see the correction higher begin and may stall around 1.9866-95 |
| Daily Bullish: | Losses were seen to the 1.9690 support and just 6 points below. This has occurred with a bullish divergence in the hourly chart and an oversold reading in the 4-hour chart. Therefore today should see a move back higher. Initial resistance is at 1.9775 which should hold for a while. However, while any pullback remains above the 1.9700-20 area we should see eventual break to allow the upside to extend through 1.9809 and towards the 1.9866-95 area which should be enough on the day. |
| MT Bullish: | With the 1.9690 support seen and basically holding we should be within a sideways consolidation between 1.9700 and 1.9970. Only a clean move above 1.9970-00 would generate a retest at 2.0025-47. (25th April) |
| Daily Bearish: | Losses found a low just 6 points below the 1.9690 support and I feel momentum has just about run out of steam for now. Only while the 1.9775 area caps and we see a sharp drop below 1.9684 would I look for direct follow-through to 1.9659 minimum and at most 1.9599-09 which I feel should provide a correction. Next support is at 1.9542 and 1.9501. |
| MT Bearish: | While the 1.9684 low seen yesterday holds we need be just a little more patient while the sideways consolidation completes (top at 1.9970). Below 1.9680 and 1.9599 triggers losses to 1.9335-61 again. (25th April) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
With the decline reaching the 1.9690 wave equality target it looks more and more like a triangle. If so this should cause a move back up to the 61.8%-66.7% projection in Wave ^c to around 1.9947-68.
This should cause further consolidation in Waves ^d and ^e before finally completing the intermediate Wave (x) to allow the third and final ABC move down to 1.9335-61 at least.
In the bigger picture this looks like a flat correction and a small chance of an expanded flat. However, I’ll judge how it gets to 1.9335-61 first.
Ian Copsey
See Also
- Pro Commentary
The art of forecasting...
