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Pro Commentary Lite ... 23rd April 2008
Wednesday, April 23, 2008

by Ian Copsey of Global Forex Trading

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

 

 Price:                             1.0077

Resistance:1.00851.01221.01521.0196
Support:1.00441.00241.00030.9984

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaks

Daily Bullish:Well we saw the gains I had expected but the break of 1.0143 didn’t lest for long... Given the complete lack of direction we need to wait for larger breaks to generate a more sustainable follow-through. For the moment only back above 1.0080-90 would provide a further attempt high which I’d like to think will be sustainable. Take care around 1.0122-30 but as long as that gives way look for a move above 1.0152 which could see a strong move through 1.0196 and to 1.0245-72 again.
MT Bullish:The sideways consolidation is frustrating but I still prefer a basic bullish structure. As long as 0.9987-00 supports we should see an eventual move above 1.0152 for 1.0272 and then the 1.0325 high.  (23rd April)
Daily Bearish:The spike reversal from 1.0152 was not expected and it does seem to suggest some form of flat correction and this could still see a return to the 0.9987-00 area. While that test is possible the 1.0080-90 area should cap. Any stronger bearish stance will require breach of 0.9984 which would extend losses to between 0.9934-62 at least. This could stall losses. Next support is then found at 0.9846-73.
MT Bearish:The 0.9925-66 target seems attainable but only below here extends to 0.9846-73 though I do feel a stronger rally is imminent. Next support is then found at 0.9774. (18th April)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

23rd April

 

Trying to find a logical structure amid this sideways consolidation is a bit tough. First choice would be a deep flat correction in Wave ii which should remain above 0.9987-00. On this assumption we would then expect Wave iii to push above the 1.0152 high and back towards the prior Wave (b) high at 1.0272 and possibly the 1.0325 high.

 

Any loss of 0.9884 does see a minor internal 66.7%-76.4% projection around 0.9934-62 and if this breaks then a 138.2% projection in Wave (c) at 0.9846.

Ian Copsey

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About the author

In 2006, Ian Copsey joined GFT as a currency analyst writing commentary and interday analysis. Copsey is one of the foremost forex technical analysts in the world with more than 20 years experience in financial markets.

He began his career at Barclays Bank's forex trading room in 1982 then moved to head their foreign exchange sales desk in Hong Kong in 1988 where he spent almost 5 years. It was in Hong Kong that he studied technical analysis and began to provide forecasts on a daily basis.

In 1993 he moved to Tokyo with Dow Jones Telerate as a technical analysis specialist, later as regional manager of technical analysis products, and then continued to develop his unique blend of forecasting tools. During his time in Tokyo, he authored Integrated Technical Analysis (John Wiley & Sons, 1999) which covers his techniques in full. He is an expert indicator and system designer.

Ian created the FXS group of indicators and writes the daily Pro Commentary

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