Price: 163.83
| Resistance: | 164.20 | 164.50 | 164.84 | 165.46 |
| Support: | 163.53 | 163.20 | 162.98 | 162.31 |
| Bias: | We should see losses but watch two support areas – at 163.53 and 162.98 |
| Daily Bullish: | In fact we did see a test closer to the 164.89 target with a peak finally being seen at 164.84. With bearish divergences now developing I feel the upside is now complete. Thus only a break back above 164.50 and 164.96 would see stronger gains through to 165.46 at least and I suspect towards 165.87. Take care here as this could hold. |
| MT Bullish: | It was too early to call a high and it looks as if we should now see gains extend to 164.04 minimum and possibly as high as 164.41-89. However, around this area does seem to provide solid resistance. (17th April) |
| Daily Bearish: | The peak at 164.84 was just 5 points below the ideal target and therefore the downside does seem very vulnerable with bearish divergences seen in hourly, 4-hour and daily charts. Initial losses have several potential targets – the first already seen at 163.53. Below here is support at 163.20 and then 162.98. This area should cause a correction but remain below 164.40-84. Below 162.90 would extend directly lower to 162.31 and possibly the 161.40-60 Fibonacci and pivot support. |
| MT Bearish: | It looks like we’ll have to be a little more patient to get the selling opportunity which I favor in the 164.41-89 area but also watch reaction at 164.04. An earlier break below 159.70 triggers losses directly. (17th April) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Yesterday’s gains suggest a different larger daily structure and if I have any preference then it is a large triangle structure which sees a 66.7% projection in Wave ^d at 164.04. However we should also note the Wave v projections at 164.41 and 164.89.
Until then there is risk of a pullback to 161.00-10 in a minor Wave iv of Wave c of Wave v.
Watch for bearish divergences to form in the hourly and 4-hour chart which aren’t present at the moment.
21st April
There is a good chance we have seen the high here and thus look for losses.
Ian Copsey
See Also
- Pro Commentary
The art of forecasting
