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Pro Commentary Lite ... 21st April 2008


An excerpt from Pro Commentary

 

 Price:                            1.0174

Resistance:1.02251.02551.02821.0312
Support:1.01661.01431.01051.0055

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias:Direct gains should reach the 1.0378-1.0428 area at least – 1.0143-66 to support

Daily Bullish:Direct gains above the 1.0127-41 area triggered much stronger gains through 1.0217-49 to reach 1.0282. I am finding the wave structure a little difficult to tie down but I feel the 1.0143-66 area should support. This should then provide another leg higher that should reach back to Friday’s high at 1.0282 high. We have to be careful as this area could cause a small pullback. Above 1.0282 would extend gains directly for 1.0338-45 at least and probably 1.0378, 1.03995 and at most 1.0428.
MT Bullish:The upside has broken through above the 1.0249 high and should imply gains to 1.0395-1.0428 at least and possibly 1.0475 & 1.0544 but I suspect this should cause a correction before additional gains.  (21st April)
Daily Bearish:Friday’s rally does seem to suggest that for this moment any downside will be corrective. The wave structure suggests support somewhere between 1.0143-66. Therefore a break through this area will be required to trigger additional losses. This should imply a test of the 1.0040-70 area and quite probably 0.9939-63. 
MT Bearish:Friday’s move higher allows us to raise the reversal points to around 0.9939-63 for now but I need to assess once we have found a short term upside target.  (21st April)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

21st April

 

The triangle appears to have ended at 0.9939. A wave equality target in Wave (c) is therefore at 1.0544.

 

We should also watch the prior target at 1.0475 also.

 

Only a direct break back below the Wave (b) low at 0.9939 would then cause a larger bearish structure.

Ian Copsey

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About the author


In 2006, Ian Copsey joined GFT as a currency analyst writing commentary and interday analysis. Copsey is one of the foremost forex technical analysts in the world with more than 20 years experience in financial markets.

He began his career at Barclays Bank's forex trading room in 1982 then moved to head their foreign exchange sales desk in Hong Kong in 1988 where he spent almost 5 years. It was in Hong Kong that he studied technical analysis and began to provide forecasts on a daily basis.

In 1993 he moved to Tokyo with Dow Jones Telerate as a technical analysis specialist, later as regional manager of technical analysis products, and then continued to develop his unique blend of forecasting tools. During his time in Tokyo, he authored Integrated Technical Analysis (John Wiley & Sons, 1999) which covers his techniques in full. He is an expert indicator and system designer.

Ian created the FXS group of indicators and writes the daily Pro Commentary

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