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March 31 Acres and Stocks Have Mixed Outlook for CBOT


The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) threw another set of curves for the CBOT, with lower-than-expected corn and higher-than-expected bean acres prompting limit up corn and 50-70 lower bean calls for opening. Adding to the price direction in corn and beans was the 200 million lower-than-expected corn stocks and 75 million higher bean stocks, suggesting higher corn feeding on likely strong chicken and hogs numbers (Friday's had 7% more market hogs). Meanwhile, the soybeans higher bean stocks suggest a 1 bushel yield underestimate of last years' crop, which means our 140 stocks are more likely at about 200-210.  Today's wheat stocks also number 4 million to 50 million more wheat bushels in the bins, so either the wheat crop was underestimated or feed usage is too low-or a combination of both.

Overall, corn could have two limits (30 cents now) off this report, but some caution is needed since beans spot May beans 11.89 January lows could be violated. This could mean another break to the $11.00 area, which could drag corn off its perch.  Wheat's acres and stocks suggests that Chicago July wheat could sink to the 8.00 to 8.50 range.

 

The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 


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About the author


Jerry Gidel is the president of Midland Research, Inc. and a research trading analyst for RJO Futures. In April 2003, he joined North America Risk Management Services, Inc. (NARMS) as an associate, specializing in the cash and futures grain markets.

With more than 30 years of experience in commodity analysis and brokerage, Jerry focuses on providing risk management services to livestock producers, grain producers, and commercial operations. He formed Midland Research in 1981 as a consulting firm working from the agricultural trading floor at the Chicago Board of Trade.

He has vast experience as a vice president and senior grain analyst at Dean Witter Reynolds, and as a grain market research analyst with several other leading commodity brokerage firms, including Paine Webber, G.H. Miller, LIT.

He earned an undergraduate degree in Ag business and a graduate degree in Ag economics from Iowa Statue University. He utilizes both fundamental and technical analysis in his market evaluation and brokerage services. Jerry and other professional RJO Futures advisers may be reached at 800-441-1616.

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