Price: 0.9919
| Resistance: | 0.9957 | 0.9987 | 1.0023 | 1.0064 |
| Support: | 0.9900 | 0.9879 | 0.9846 | 0.9785 |
| Bias: | I still can’t rule out a dip to 0.9846 but suspect we shall see a recovery before long |
| Daily Bullish: | We did see some strength yesterday but this stalled at 0.9987. Given the shallow nature of the recovery I still can’t totally rule out additional losses so we need to work on breaks today. To see direct gains we need 0.9879-00 to support. A move high will then need to break back above 0.9957 to retest the 0.9987 high. If seen then look for gains to extend towards 1.0023 at least and I suspect higher to 1.0064 at least and probably 1.0108-12. Any earlier dip to 0.9846 (max 0.9785) should see a recovery. |
| MT Bullish: | A deeper recovery was seen as expected but this stalled between the 1.0160-91 and 1.0352-75 resistances. For further gains we’ll need to see the 1.0249 high broken followed by 1.0375. (27th March) |
| Daily Bearish: | Price action remained fairly flat yesterday with the gains seen not really sufficient to generate a stronger follow-through higher. While the 0.9957-87 area caps we should be aware of the remaining risk of a slightly stronger dip lower. There is initial support at 0.9900 and then the 0.9879 low. Breach should extend losses to 0.9846 at least. I suspect this would hold. If not, then we could see extension to 0.9815 and at most 0.9785 which I feel will cause a reversal higher. Next support is found at 0.9708-40. |
| MT Bearish: | We have seen a bullish divergence at the 0.9644 low but it isn’t very strong. Thus we still need to be cautious. Below 0.9785 would appear to suggest a retest of 0.9644 which should hold on first test. (27th March) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
27th March
I am still more inclined to suggest the 0.9644 low was the end of the decline. However, there still has been no confirmed reversal higher and until that occurs it will be better to be aware of the alternatives.
There is a 76.4% retracement in Wave –b- at 0.9785 but we still can’t rule out a deeper pullback in this currency pair. However, only below 0.9644 would confirm a new low in Wave –v- and I’ll need a little more structure to judge potential targets.
In the meantime if we are seeing a major low we’ll need a break back above 1.0249 and the 1.0352 Wave –iv- high to confirm a larger move higher that frankly should imply a move to the last Wave (b) which is at 1.1106.
Ian Copsey
See Also
- FX-Strategy Pro Commentary
Possibly the most comprehensive analysis in the market
