Corn Market

03/10 Weekly Corn Export Inspections: 44.791 million bu. vs. 42-48 million bu. expected    
03/13 Weekly Corn Export Sales: 768.8K T. old crop, 457.2K T. new crop vs. 600K – 1.0M T. expected

Old crop: Flat price challenges recent highs but fails to follow through. Although we still finished higher on the day the latter half of the session the market appeared to be struggling. Old crop noticeably lost to the new crop. Most basis levels, interior and export, are on the defensive. Weekly export sales continue to be solid though not eye-opening. Specs remain our best buyers and when they are not here the flat price tends to sag. Inter-day price action shows a pseudo-looking double top. The first sell signal would occur with action below $5.73-$5.72 (July)
 
New crop: More rhetoric out there around corn acres; how many have we lost. This notion has been flip-flopping all week and I don’t expect it to end anytime soon. The analytical group, Informa, is slated to announce their updated acreage ideas sometime midmorning on Friday. Their last estimate was 90.0 million acres, which is down 3.6 million from last year. If these figures remain constant, “status quo” ideas will envelope the new crop. “Status quo” suggests minimal changes from this year. Like the old crop, the inter-day price action shows a double top. Sell signals occur with action below $5.72.       


Wheat Market

03/10 Weekly Wheat Export Inspections:  18.122 million bu. vs. 16 – 21 million bu. expected    
03/13 Weekly Wheat Export Sales: 210.0K T old crop, 213.1K T. new crop vs. 250K - 750K T. expected

Old crop: The specs came for the flat price early and then left the building; prices finished 74 cents off of their highs. Trade chatter suggested profit taking took prices down. I think it was a lack of buying.  March Wheat expires Friday at noon.  Many will look at its expiration and try to develop short term trading ideas from its finish. The poor close in the May contract has registered a sell signal on inter-day price action. First support is down around the $12.10 level (May). Since the specs have been the driving force here it will be up to them to keep this market alive. No new spec buying would mean prices will move lower. This market can break $1.50 before finding any real legitimate looking support.                             

New crop: New crop fades from its early new highs to finish lower on the day. Who wants to say this reversal will hold true? My personal observation is that the market ran out of buyers. The HRW areas are forecasted for improved moisture for a good portion of that area, some think the far western, southwestern areas may get shortchanged in these forecasts. Like the old crop, the new crop registers an inter-day sell signal. First support is down around $11.55. The best looking support is not until $10.50. I haven’t trusted this market all week; I’m not about to now.                        

Soy Complex

03/10 Weekly Soybean Export Inspections:  29.857 million bu. vs. 26 – 31 million bu. expected
03/13 Weekly Soybean Export Sales: 257.6K T old crop, 123.9K T. new crop vs. 250K – 600K T. expected
03/13 Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales: 147.8K T. old crop, 2.1K T. new crop vs. 25K – 75K T. expected
03/13 Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales: 29.1K T. vs. 5K – 20K T. expected

Old crop: Old crop beans run early, but fail to maintain the bulge (35 cents higher at their best) finishing 6-8 cents higher. Weekly export sales were deemed just okay. It has to be noted that there has been a definite slowdown for US beans as world importers are looking to SA for cheaper origin. Basis levels in this country are on the defensive. The last three days of inter-day action looks like an upflag. The flagging action measures down to the $13.00 level (July). Some support, however, may try to catch the break in the short term at the $13.50 level.   

New crop: New crop beans tried to rally early but failed to hold the bulge.  New crop did lose some to old crop. The discussion around acres continues hot and heavy; are we going to have enough beans acres for this coming season to alleviate the current tightness? Informa will supposedly be out midmorning Friday with their latest ideas. In January, they thought beans for the coming season would be 69.0, up 5.4 million from last year. Number crunchers suggest that is not enough. The last 3 days of inter-day action looks like an upflag. The flagging action measures down to the $11.80 level. There is some congestive looking support at the $12.25 level.

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