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Weekly Grain Report for Week Ending March 7, 2008


WEEKLY GRAIN UPDATE

For week ending March 7, 2008
by
LYNN SMITH
Senior Futures Broker
ZANER GROUP
800-470-1406
lsmith@zaner.com
SOYBEANS
On Monday, March 3rd, May Soybeans posted another life of contract high at 15.86 ½, before closing at 15.59 ½, up 23 cents for the session. May Soyoil opened and closed up the 200 point limit at 70.82 on the heels of another record high for crude palm oil futures in Malaysia. India's rapeseed production is expected to drop 15.4 percent from 2007 according to an analyst at Risk Management Commodities, further exacerbating the vegetable oil shortage after a severe winter storm damaged China's output of rapeseed by as much as 40 percent of their crop. Spillover support from Gold and Crude Oil also contributed to early strength which was extended by speculative fund buying. During the session, the USDA reported Soybean export inspections totaled 32.6 million bushels vs. 23.8 m.b. the week prior and well above the average of 10.3 m.b. needed each week to meet the USDA projection. Late profit taking and hedge pressure brought the Beans off their highs to settle near the lows for the day. Funds bought an estimated 4,000 contracts during the session. May Beans closed sharply lower on Tuesday at 15.10 ¾, down 48 ¾ cents, after trading down the 50 cent limit at 15.09 ½. Soybeans followed Soyoil lower as May Soyoil closed down the 2.00 limit at 68.82. Rumors that China's government may sell vegetable oils from their state reserve and also cut import taxes to curb surging prices started the sell off in the Asian markets overnight. Spillover weakness in the metals market along with Crude Oil also kept the market on the defensive. Beans have been long overdue for a correction and the funds have hefty profits which they decided to book. Funds sold an estimated 6,000 contracts during the session. On Wednesday, May Beans opened sharply higher, however a sharp sell off in Soyoil prompted a reversal of the early gains and May Beans closed at 15.08 ½, down 2 ¼ cents for the day. May Soyoil traded down the two cent limit at 66.82, before a partial recovery brought the market off limit down and it closed at 67.33, down 149 points for the day. A strong rally
in
Crude Oil kept the market near the flat line for most of the day, although traders remain cautious after the limit down move on Tuesday. On Thursday, May Beans closed 49 ¾ cents lower, at 14.58 ¾, on speculative fund selling and another limit down move in the Soyoil. May Soyoil closed down 200 points, at 65.33, on continued weakness in the vegetable oil markets with Asian futures down sharply on overnight trade. Prior to the open, the USDA reported our Soybean exports for last week totaled 202,000 metric tons, down 65 percent from the week prior and down 69 percent from our four week average. China was out of the market for the first time in three weeks and it appears they will be buying Beans out of South America where they can buy at a 75 cent discount to US Beans. May Beans were overdue for a correction, and with harvesting of South American Beans progressing nicely, traders expect a slowdown in our Bean exports going into the end of April. Funds sold an estimated 5,000 contracts during the session. On Friday, May Soybeans gapped sharply lower and closed at 14.08 ¾, down the 50 cent limit, on continued weakness in the Soyoil as well as profit taking. Weakness in the vegetable market in Asia once again sent May Soyoil down the 2.00 limit at 63.33. Some traders are of the opinion that the market has completed their mission of buying acres for spring planting. March Beans closed down 1.02 at $13.41, suggesting the market may open sharply lower on Monday. However, with the USDA supply/demand report on tap for next Tuesday, prior to the open, I would be surprised to see May Beans close down the limit on Monday. In last weeks report I recommended buying May Beans at $15.10, which should have been filled on Tuesday, but the sell stop at 14.98 should have been filled on Wednesday, resulting in a loss of 12 cents ($600.) plus trade costs. For option buyers, I recommended buying the May $16.00 call for 60 cents, which should have filled on Tuesday, but the market sold off to my risk level at 45 cents on Wednesday, resulting in a loss of approximately 15 cents ($750.) This week I would look to buy the $15.00 May Bean call for 22 cents or less, risk to 15 cents, and target 45 cents or more to take profits. 
CORN
May Corn gapped higher on Monday and posted a new life of contract high at 5.73 ½, before closing at 5.66 ½, up 10 cents for the session. Spillover support from Gold, Crude Oil and Soybeans contributed to the buying spree with the speculative funds adding to the gains on a strong technical backdrop. Ideas that Corn will need to keep pace with the Beans to retain acreage going into spring planting also were supportive to pricing. During the session, the USDA reported Corn export inspections for last week totaled 47.1 million bushels vs. 46.628 m.b. the week prior and well above the average needed of 44.8 m.b. per week to reach the USDA projection. The Funds bought an estimated 6,000 contracts during the session. May Corn followed the Beans sharply lower on "turnaround Tuesday", hitting limit down at one point before a strong surge just before the close brought the sell off into moderate territory. May Corn closed at 5.54 ½, down 12 cents on the day, with a low at 4.46 ½, which was down the 20 cent limit. Spillover selling pressure from Soybeans, Crude Oil and Gold contributed to the negative sentiment and ideas that the Corn market was due for a correction. Technical selling also became apparent when May Corn traded below 5.50 support, however the market turned around at the end as Wheat staged a strong rally and shorts covered their Corn positions. Funds sold an estimated 6,000 contracts during the session. May Corn opened higher on Wednesday and closed at 5.67, up 12 ½ cents, although off the earlier highs. At one time May Corn was almost limit up on a strong Crude Oil market, but a late sell off in Soyoil brought Corn off its highs, not before posting a new life of contract high at 5.74 ¼. Funds bought an estimated 6,000 ontracts during the session. On Thursday, May Corn closed at 5 67 ¼,up ¼ cent on the day, as early speculative buying gave way to spillover weakness in the Soybean and Soyoil pits trading at limit down, before a late recovery brought the market back to just over even. Prior to the opening, the USDA reported export sales for Corn last week totaled 648,000 metric tons, up 8 percent from the week prior, but down 30 percent from the four week average. Ideas that Corn planted acreage will come under the USDA Outlook Forum's 90 million acre estimate also provided support, along with some spreading of buying Corn/selling Beans near session end. Funds sold as estimated 2,000 contracts during the session. On Friday, May Corn gapped lower and closed down the 20 cent limit at 5.47 ¼, on spillover weakness from Soybeans and Soyoil. Profit taking and weakness in outside commodity markets pushed the market to its 20 cent limit, with the market about 3 cents lower based on synthetic options at the close. Fund selling was estimated at 10,000 contracts during the session. In last week's report, I recommended buying May Corn at 5.50, which should have been filled on Tuesday, with a stop at 5.38. In options recommendations, one should have bought the May $6.00 call at 17 ½ cents, again on Tuesday, risking to 14 cents. Both positions are still long and my profit targets remain at 6.00 or higher on the futures and 35 cents or higher on the May $6.00 call.
WHEAT
Mat Wheat also opened sharply higher on Monday and hit a high early at 11.46, before profit taking and spillover weakness from sharply lower MGE Wheat, pushed the market lower to close at 11.02 ½, up 16 ½ cents for the day, but a long way from the highs. May MGE Wheat closed down the 60 cents limit at 15.59 ¾, after being up over 50 cents at one point early in the trading day. During the session, the USDA reported Wheat export inspections for last week totaled 16.3 million bushels which brought our cumulative season to date exports to 98.5 per cent of the USDA forecast as compared to the 5 year average for this time of the year at 73.5 per cent. In supportive news, Egypt purchased 125,000 metric tons of Russian and U.S. soft red Wheat in a tender over the weekend. Ideas that the recent price break may stimulate demand contributed to the early rally, which appeared to run out of steam going into the close. The funds bought an estimated 3,000 contracts during the session. May Wheat started out higher on Tuesday, but quickly turned South in unison with the Corn & Soybean pits. May Wheat closed at 10.87 ½, down 15 cents for the day, after trading as low as 10.56, which was down 46 ½ cents. Spillover weakness in Gold and Crude Oil also pressured the Wheat market early, along with a sharply lower MGE May Wheat. A sharp short covering rally trimmed losses at sessions end, along with a number of "market-on-close" buy orders. May MGE Wheat closed at 14.49, down 50 ¾ cents on the day. In fundamental news, Taiwan bought 75,000 metric tons of U.S. #1 Wheat, including hard red winter Wheat, in a tender that ended Tuesday. Morocco was also tendering to buy 136,050 metric tons of soft milling Wheat, of any origin for delivery by April 1. The deadline for bids is April 1, but most traders felt that tender would be filled with French Wheat. Japan is also seeking 117,000 metric tons of Wheat, including 50,000 metric tons of U.S. semi-hard Wheat, in a routine tender to be concluded on Thursday for shipment between April and June. May Wheat closed 17 ½ cents higher on Wednesday, at 11.05, on spillover strength from the Crude Oil and Gold markets. MGE May Wheat closed down the 60 cent limit at 14.39 ¾, in a continuation of the sell off began last week when MGE May Wheat set a contract high at 19.81. The sell off in MGE Wheat was thought to be the result of a sharp drop in Wheat protein premiums. Funds bought an estimated 3,500 contracts during the session. On Thursday, May Wheat closed at 11.25, up 20 cents for the day, on technical and fund buying. Prior to the open, the USDA reported Wheat exports totaled 505,300 metric tons vs. 328,500 m.t. last week. The export numbers were somewhat disappointing because the traders already knew about the 400,000 m.t. sale of hard red winter Wheat. Analysts had expected a total of 550,000 m.t. in pre-report estimates. Some light unwinding of the Soybean/Wheat spreads (selling Beans and buying Wheat) also contributed to buying which was limited to some extend by the near limit down close in the Soybean market. Funds

 

 

 

Wheta
bought an estimated 1,000 contracts during the session. MGE May Wheat closed down the 60 cent limit at 13.79 ¾, in continued liquidation of the old crop months in light of a fall off in demand for the higher protein Wheat. New crop September MGE Wheat closed up 6 cents on the day as traders supported the new crop months which are still in acreage competition with Corn & Beans. May CBOT Wheat opened sharply lower on Friday and closed at 11.05, down 20 cents, on spillover weakness from the Soybean, Soyoil and Corn markets. The market attempted a rally at mid-session, but the weakness in the adjacent pits was just too much to overcome and May Wheat sold off going into the close. MGE May Wheat closed down the 60 cent limit, at 13.19 ¾, for the fifth consecutive day. There was little fresh news to influence the market, but the weakness in the adjacent pits kept Wheat on the defensive. Funds sold an estimated 3,000 contracts during the session. In last weeks report, I recommended buying the May Wheat 12.00 call for 54 cents, which should have been filled on Tuesday. It closed at 67 cents today, and my target remains $1.10 or better and risk to 48 cents.

 


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About the author


Lynn Smith is a futures broker and Associated Person (AP) employed by the Zaner Group in Chicago, IL.  He has over 30 years experience in the futures markets and specializes in using a combination of futures and options to manage risk exposure.

In addition to his MBA in Finance, he has also completed relevant advanced Graduate-level coursework in derivatives. Lynn writes a "Weekly Grain Update" which is a compilation of fundamental and technical indicators that affect price movement specific to the grain markets. The weekly report includes trade recommendations complete with risk/reward analysis for each market.

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