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Weekly Grain Update for February 29, 2008


WEEKLY GRAIN UPDATE
or week ending February 29, 2008
by
LYNN SMITH
Senior Futures Broker
ZANER GROUP
800-470-1406
lsmith@zaner.com
SOYBEANS
On Monday, Feb.25th, May Beans gapped sharply higher and closed at 14.69 ¼, up 31 cents for the day, and in the process made a new life of contract high at 14.85. A strong overseas market was the catalyst that had the Beans sharply higher in the overnight session. Soyoil also posted a new life of contract high, closing up 1.32 at 64.33 on the May contract. During the session, the USDA reported export inspections totaled 23.8 million bushels vs. 32.95 m.b. the week prior, but still above the 11.16 m.b. needed per week to reach the USDA projection. Talk of world exporters slowing exports in order to slow food inflation added to the bullish sentiment. Funds bought 5,000 contracts of Beans during the session. May Beans gapped lower on Tuesday on a wave of profit taking, but a gradual recovery accelerated at mid day, and after making a life of contract high at 14.93, May Beans closed at 14.84 ¼, up 15 cents for the day. Spillover support from Wheat and Crude Oil, along with a weak dollar sparked the recovery with commercial and speculative buying pushing the market to new highs. In an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, Thomas Mielke, executive director of ITSA Mielke GmbH, said he expected world output of vegetable oils to fall short of demand by 20 million metric tons in 2007-08. This expectation has been one of the driving forces in making new all time highs in the palm oil and soyoil markets. May Soyoil also made a new life of contract high at 65.03, before settling at 65.03, up 70 points on the day. Funds bought an estimated 3,000 Soybean contracts during the session. May Beans opened sharply lower on Wednesday, but bargain hunters bought the lows and pushed the market into positive territory briefly, before dropping back and closing at 14.75 ¼, down 9 cents for the day. Spillover support from CBOT Wheat which went from being down over $1.00 just after the open, to up the $1.35 limit mid-morning, also contributed to the rally off session lows, but the market faded into the close with no fresh news to provide buying incentive. Funds bought an estimated 3,000 contracts during the session. Analysts estimated a range of 400,000 to 650,000 metric tons of Beans in the USDA weekly export report to be released on Thursday. On Thursday, prior to the open, the USDA reported Soybean exports for last week totaled 616,200 metric tons vs. 630,000 the week prior and a little under the four week average. That brought the cumulative year to date total to 93.8 percent of the USDA forecast vs. 84.7 percent as the 5-year average. It was a friendly number, especially in view of the rumors that China may have bought an additional 7 cargoes of South American Beans this week.

 

Soybeans

May Beans opened higher and pushed higher as the session wore on to close at 15.12 ½, up a huge 37 ¼ cents, after posting a new life of contract high at 15.15 ½. Soyoil continued to lead the Soybean complex higher, with May Soyoil making a new life of contract high at 67.42, before closing at 67.30, up 183 points on the day. Spillover support from outside markets including Crude Oil and Gold, along with a sharply lower U.S. dollar, also contributed to the bullish psychology which has been present in a number of commodities the past few sessions. Fund profit taking in Wheat, shifting long positions to Soybeans and Corn, may also have accounted for a portion of the move higher. Funds bought an estimated 6,000 contracts during the session. Once again, May Soybeans gapped higher on Friday and posted and all time contract high at 15.39, before closing at 15.36 ½, up 24 cents for the session. Spillover support from a surging Soyoil market along with another new high in the Gold market kept sellers at bay. Late speculative and commercial buying pushed the market to its highs for the session as traders did not wish to be short going into the weekend. Some old/new crop spreading (buying old crop/selling the new crop) was also present with the tight current supplies and strong demand making that combination appealing. May Soyoil also posted another all time high at 69.13, before closing at 68.82, up 152 points on the day, on continued record highs in Asian vegoil markets and strong commercial and speculative buying. Funds bought an estimated 6,000 Soybean contracts during the session. We did not have any fills from my recommendations in last weeks report. This week I would look to buy a dip in May Beans to 15.10, using a 14.98 sell stop, and target 16.00 or higher to take profits. Option buyers should look to buy the May $16.00 call for 60 cents or less (it closed at 69 ½ cents Friday), risk to 45 cents and target 1.20 or higher to take profits. If we don't get a dip by Monday-Tuesday, call for specific trade updates, as I want to be long going into the next USDA report on March 11th.

CORN
On Monday, Feb. 25th, May Corn gapped sharply higher on the open and at one time was up the 20 cent limit at 5.55, before profit taking eroded the gains to a close at 5.47, up 12 cents for the day. During the session, the USDA reported export inspections totaled 46.628 million bushels vs. 51.464 m.b. the week prior, but still up 18.6 percent from the total inspected at this time last year. The report was within analysts pre-report estimates of 42 to 48 million bushels. There was little other fundamental news to influence the market, so the Corn market appeared to be content to play a follower's roll to the Beans and Wheat markets. Funds bought an estimated 8,000 contracts during the session. May Corn gapped lower in typical "turn-around Tuesday" fashion, before spillover strength from Beans and Wheat sparked a gradual recovery as the session progressed and May Corn settled at 5.44, down only 3 cents, after having traded 16 ½ cents lower at one time early on. Corn has been playing a "follower's role" to Wheat and Soybeans as the fundamentals are not the same, with Wheat and Soybeans both with small carryover as compared to Corn. However, the broad based strength in commodities limited the downside as most sellers were reluctant to press the market lower. Funds sold an estimated 5,000 contracts during the session. May Corn settled 6 cents lower, at 5.38 on Wednesday, in an inside day with little fresh news to move the market. Light profit taking led to a consolidation of the recent gains, however the lower prices attracted bargain hunters which kept the days action inside of the prior day's trade. The USDA will report Corn exports for last week on Thursday, and analysts are estimating a range of 600,000 to 950,000 metric tons. On Thursday, prior to the open, the USDA reported Corn exports totaled 776,100 metric tons vs. 1.141 million metric tons the week prior. The report was within range of analyst's estimates, but substantially

Corn

 

 

lower than the week prior. Nevertheless, May Corn followed Soybeans higher into mid session and unwinding of long Wheat /short Corn spreads also pushed the market up near the 20 cent limit at the close. Friday is first notice day for March Corn, with deliveries expected to be in the 500 to 2000 area. Funds bought an estimated 8,000 contracts during the session. On Friday, May Corn closed ½ cent higher at 5.56 ½, with strong spillover support from Beans being countered by a sharply lower Wheat market. Traders noted some concern that the lower export totals on Thursday's weekly export report might be a result of rationing from the current lofty prices. Going forward, Corn will continue to play the followers' role to Beans and Wheat in order to keep pace and avoid losing acreage to competing crops in the upcoming spring planting. We did not have any fills from last week's recommendations. This week I would look to buy May Corn at 5.50 with a 5.38 sell stop, and target 6.00 or higher to take profits. Option traders should look to buy the May 6.00 call for 17 ½ cents (it closed at 19 ¼ on Friday), risk to 14 cents and target 35 or higher to take profits.

WHEAT
On Monday, Feb 25th, May Wheat gapped higher on the open and closed up the 60 cent limit at 11.24 ½, on strong spillover support from MGE March Wheat which closed at 24.00, up 4.75 for the session, after hitting a new all time high at 25.00. The limits on the MGE March limit were removed after the options expired on Friday, Feb. 22nd. Open interest in the March MGE contract was 2,021 at the close of business on Friday and may have dropped another 1,000 during Monday's session. Fundamental news included a curb in grain exports for Kazakhstan beginning on March 1st. Kazakhstan normally produces high-quality Wheat, and in the past they have been a strong competitor for export sales to Egypt. Funds bought an estimated 1,000 contracts during the session. May CBOT Wheat gapped higher on Tuesday, and posted a new all time high at 12.14 ½, up the expanded daily limit of 90 cents, on continued speculative buying from a dwindling supply of exportable Wheat. MGE May Wheat closed at 18.43 ½, up the expanded $1.35 limit, establishing a new life of contract high in the process. Sellers were reluctant to step in front of the "bullish freight train" and ideas persist that spring Wheat needs to buy acres prior to planting in April/May. Funds bought an estimated 5,000 contracts during the session. May Wheat opened sharply lower on Wednesday at 10.90, down 1.24 ½, before short covering and aggressive speculative buying reversed the trend and pushed May Wheat up the newly expanded $1.35 limit at 13.49 ½, followed by profit taking paring the gains to 12.50, up 35 ½ cents on the close. MGE May Wheat opened down the newly expanded $2.02 ½ limit on Wednesday at 16.40 ¾, before short covering and spillover support from CBOT Wheat pushed the market up almost 57 cents, before another wave of selling pushed the market sharply lower at the close. MGE May Wheat closed at 17.47, down 96 ¼ cents for the session. The USDA reported Iraq bought 400,000 metric tons of hard red winter Wheat for delivery in the 2007-08 marketing year, confirming

Wheat

rumors that have been circulating the past few days. Margins for all three Wheat exchanges will be increased as of the close on Wednesday. New margins for CBOT old crop Wheat will be $5,400, KCBT Wheat $5,625, and MGE old crop Wheat $9,750. May Wheat closed sharply lower on Thursday, closing at 11.65, down 85 cents for the day. Prior to the open, the USDA reported export sales of Wheat last week totaled 328,600 metric tons vs. 101,000 m.t. last week. The report was in line with analyst's expectations, but news that Egypt's state owned General Authority for Supply Commodities was changing its rules for importing Wheat to allow for additional origins, was seen as bearish for US Wheat exports, as Egypt could now import Wheat from the European Union. Some traders were also exiting position prior to delivery notice on Friday with analysts expecting deliveries in the range from 1,000 to 2,500 contracts. MGE May Wheat closed 1.16 ¾ lower at 16.30 ½, on profit taking and lack of bullish fundamental news to reverse the short term trend. May Wheat continued to see profit taking on Friday, losing 79 cents, at 10.86, as speculative longs booked profits on the last trading day of the month. Ideas that the Wheat rally was a little overdone and technical selling kept the market under pressure with a selling spurt near the close. The second increase in CBOT margins for Wheat in a week also played a factor in the general sell off. Deliveries against the March CBOT Wheat were less than 404 notices and had little effect on pricing. MGE May Wheat closed with relatively small losses of 10 ¾ cents, at 16.30 ½, in a fairly quiet session with short covering near the close. No deliveries were reported against the March MGE Wheat contract, in line with pre-report estimates of zero to 500. We did not have any fills from last week's recommendation. This week I would look to buy the May Wheat 12.00 call for 54 cents (it closed at 56 1/8 on Friday), risk to 48 cents and target $1.10 or higher to take profits.

 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time, and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or commodity options. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.


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About the author


Lynn Smith is a futures broker and Associated Person (AP) employed by the Zaner Group in Chicago, IL.  He has over 30 years experience in the futures markets and specializes in using a combination of futures and options to manage risk exposure.

In addition to his MBA in Finance, he has also completed relevant advanced Graduate-level coursework in derivatives. Lynn writes a "Weekly Grain Update" which is a compilation of fundamental and technical indicators that affect price movement specific to the grain markets. The weekly report includes trade recommendations complete with risk/reward analysis for each market.

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