Jan soybeans ended 9 ½ cents higher on Wednesday to a new high close for that contract. Traders say the long term fundamentals remain bullish as stockpiles are forecast to shrink after this years smaller plantings and harvest and the larger exports that have occurred over the last year especially to China. The focus appears to be shifting to new crop SX8 vs. CZ* as that spread appears to be widening. The USDA's announcement of 120,000 mt of US beans to an unknown buyer were supportive to the mkt. on Wednesday. Volume is starting to show some signs of tailing off which is typical this time of year, Soybeans traded 139,696, Oil 55,037 and Meal 48,803. Funds bought an estimated 3,000 Soybeans, 1,000 Meal and 2,000 Oil.
Early opening calls are higher. China's central bank raised benchmark interest rates today for the sixth time this year. The weekly export sales released show USDA reporting sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 929,600 mt. (872,400 for 2007/08), above a range of trade estimates for 600,000 to 900,000 mt. sales of U.S. soyoil in the latest week at 8,500 mt., below estimates for 10,000 to 25,000 and U.S. soymeal in the latest week at 111,800 mt., above estimates for 600,000 to 900,000. Also released this morning was the Nov. Census crush, the U.S. November soybean crush at 156.64 million bushels, above the average trade estimate of 155.25 million, soyoil stocks at 3.041 billion lbs, slightly below the average trade estimate of 3.053 billion, soymeal stocks at 313,798 short tons, above the average trade estimate of 272,500. Malaysian palm oil market was closed to mark the Muslim festival of Eid al-Adha. Overnight Chinese Soybean, Meal and oil futures closed steady to higher.
Early Opening Calls: steady 2 to 4c better
Early CBOT Soybean Complex: Meal $1 to $2 Higher
Early CBOT Soybean Complex: Oil 10 to 15 Higher
Top News
**US Nov Soybean Crush 156.64 mln bu vs Oct revised 154.01 mln bu reports the US Census Bureau
**US Nov 2007 Soyoil Stocks 3.041 bln lbs; Oct was revised to 3.049 bln lbs; Nov 2006 = 3.071 bln lbs
**US Nov 2007 Soymeal stocks: 313,798 tons vs Oct revised 313,390 tons; Nov 2006 373,563 tons
**USDA Soybeans 07/08 Export Sales Net: 872,400 mt; 08/09 Net: 57,200 mt; expected 600-850k mt
**USDA Soybean Meal 07/08 Export Sales Net: 111,800 mt; 08/09 Export Sales Net: None mt; expected 75-150k
**USDA Soybean Oil 07/08 Export Sales Net: 8,500 mt; 08/09 Export Sales Net: None mt; expected 10k-25k
*USDA reports private sale of 165,000 mt US Soybeans sold to Unknown destination for 2007/08
*Nat'l Cotton Council reports Cotton Mill use during November at 4.807 mln bales
-- Poor weather & rail car shortages limit grain exports from Russia in November to 2.0 mln mt down from 3.2 mln mt in Oct, acc. to local grain analyst SovEcon. They expect December exports to fall to 1.4-1.6 mln mt range and further during January as total exports reach 12.5 mln mt
-- Dalian Sept Soybean futures rose 4 yuan to 4,447 yuan/mt, other contract months were higher also; Sept Soymeal futures were unchanged on 1.0 mln contracts traded; Soyoil futures rose 62 to settle at 9784 yuan/mt basis the May contract
-- Malaysian Palm March contract rose as much as 32 ringgit to stand at 2,982 ringgit ($890) a tonne. The contract ended up 12 ringgit at 2,962 ringgit.
-- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 103,283; Pit Vol. 30,460; Open Interest Change: +181
-- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Above Normal Precip. The Corn Belt looks dry today and Friday. Showers and snow move west to east Saturday into Sunday. Dry Monday . Temps normal to above.
-- Outside markets: Energy Complex up slightly at $91.28; Gold & Silver: at $801 & at $14 ; US $ down slightly vs. Yen and up slightly vs. Euro
Cash Markets
-- CIF Soybeans steady . LH Dec. +35 to +40, Jan. +40 to +45, Feb. +34 to +38, Mar. +35 to +41, Apr. +30 to +35, May +34 to +40, J/J +38 to +40.
Nate Smith
SMS Brokerage
nsmith@jerrygulke.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn group, inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. this material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss








