Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Overnight corn futures lower at the e-CBOT, declining 3 to 4 cents on relatively light volume - total of 4,500 contracts exchanged. Trade negative - values opened near unchanged and slowly trended lower throughout. Overall, action relatively restrained - less than a 5 cent overnight range. South Korea failed to find any suitable sellers in their 165k ton corn tender, released yesterday evening. Despite this, corn export sales continue to proceed at a robust pace - grain inspections on Monday were about +10% higher than analyst projections, coming in at 46.589 mil bu. Egypt, Saudis, Mexicans, and Moroccans looking for more. Argentina's corn planting now estimated 84% complete - hot weather here could become a concern as corn reaches key stage of development (tasseling). French corn harvest pegged at 15.5 mil tons in '07.
Look for corn to open around 3 to 4 cents lower today, roughly in line with the night session close. Traders are rather optimistic about the prospects for the grain complex today - seems to be a general belief we could end up higher today despite a sluggish start. Outside markets friendly to corn, energy markets significantly higher, metals higher, and the US Dollar slowly declining throughout the morning.
Corn ended slightly higher Monday, despite spending most of the day lower. Values opened slightly lower as anticipated, finding significant selling and dropping 6 cents by mid-day. Corn charged back led by front-month March '08 futures, rallying to close a half cent higher. Fund re-balancing and world demand interest continue to lend support to the corn market. Weak corn basis continues to be a concern for some traders. Deferred CBOT corn contracts ended the day unchanged.
eCBOT Overnight
Contract Last Net Change High Low
ZCK8 445^6 -4^0 449^2 444^4
ZCH8 435^2 -3^4 438^4 433^4
ZCN8 453^4 -3^6 457^4 452^6
ZCU8 452^0 -0^4 452^4 451^0
Early Opening Calls: 3-4 down
Top News
-- High prices were given as reason S Korean group passed on buying a total of 165,000 mt Non-GMO Corn on Tuesday
-- Monday's USDA Corn Inspections: 46.589 mln bu.; expected 42.5 mln bu
-- Dalian Corn futures in China overnight fell 24 to 1731 yuan/mt basis the May contract, other contract months were lower also
-- eCBOT Corn Vol: 137,131; Pit Vol.: 34,202; Open Interest change: +1,399
-- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip. The Corn Belt will be mostly dry today into Friday. Saturday and Sunday will see some rain and snow. Temps normal to above.
-- Outside markets: Energy Complex + 1.25 at $ 91.88; Gold & Silver: + 6.8 at $801.5 & steady at $13.83; US $ up slightly vs. Yen & down slightly vs. Euro.
Cash Markets
-- CIF Corn steady off 3. Dec. +?? to +??, LH Dec. +27 to +29, Jan. +32 to +35, Feb. +42 to +45, Mar. +45 to +48, A/M +38 to +40 J/J +40 to +40
