Mondays Soybean trading session ended higher in the Jan Contract up 6 cents. Most of the session was lackluster until a late rally in meal boosted the complex. Traders say drier than normal weather in Argentina and some dryness in Brazil and support from wheat took front month soybeans to new 34 year highs. The USDA reported 32.915 mil bu of US soybeans were inspected for export last week above trade estimates for 23 to 27 mil bu. Volume at the CBOT was heavy in the bean complex 176,448 Soybeans, 68,730 Soybean oil and 68,017 soybean meal traded on Monday. Funds were net buyers of an estimated 1,500 Soybeans, 1,500 Oil and 1,000 Meal.
Early Opening calls are higher this morning. USDA, in its December supply/demand report trimmed its outlook for U.S. soy ending stocks for the current marketing
year and boosted exports for soy, soymeal and soyoil. World 07/08 Soybeans Carryout: 47.32 mmt; Nov Rpt 49.35 The USDA estimated 2007/08 U.S. soy ending stocks at 185 mil. bu., below an average of analysts' estimates for 197 mil. bu. and below the USDA's outlook in November for 210 mil bu. USDA boosted to 995 mil. bu. its outlook for U.S. soy exports, above the 975 mil. bu. forecast in
November. 2007/08 U.S. soymeal exports at 8.4 mil.tons, up from 8.3 million in November. 07/08 U.S. soyoil exports at 1.650 billion lbs, up from 1.550 billion in November. Oil World cut its estimate of Brazil's old crop soy harvest by 800,000 mt. to 58.5 million and trimmed the new-crop to 61.0 million, down 700,000 from previous estimate. They cite concerns of dry weather and Asian rust as the key culprits to reduce yields from their previous estimate. China reported it's second largest monthly soybean import on record in November at 3.35 mmt. This was 17.8% higher than Oct. and 43% above 1 year ago. Brazil's Ag ministry lowered their Soybean production forecast by 1.0 mmt to 58.1 mmt. Another Agency IBGE released a Soybean production estimate of 59.35 mmt vs. a previous estimate of 59.32 mmt. Overnight Chinese Soybeans, Meal and oil futures closed higher Malaysian Palm oil futures closed higher .
Post Report Opening Calls: Soybeans 5 to 10c higher; Soymeal slightly higher; Soyoil 15-20 pts higher
Top News
**US Dec Soybean 07/08 Carryout: 0.185 bln bu. ; est. 0.20; Nov Rpt 0.210
**US Dec Soymeal 07/08 Carryout: 300k T ; Nov Rpt 300,000
**US Dec Soyoil 07/08 Carryout: 2.162 bln lbs. ; Nov Rpt 2.017
**US Dec Soybean 07/08 Crop Prod: 2.594 bln bu.
**World 07/08 Soybeans Carryout: 47.32 mmt; Nov Rpt 49.35
**World 07/08 Soymeal Carryout: 5.38 mmt; Nov Rpt 5.71
**World 07/08 Soyoil Carryout: 2.57 mmt; Nov Rpt 2.60
** Dec Brazil 07/08 Soybean Output: 62.0 mmt; Nov Rpt 62.0
** Dec Argentina 07/08 Soybean Output: 47.0 mmt; Nov Rpt 47.0
** Dec China 07/08 Soybean Output: 14.3 mmt; Nov Rpt 14.3
-- Chinese soybean imports rise 17.8% in November vs Oct; Soy imports were 43% higher in Nov 2007 vs Nov 2006. November imports totaled 3.35 mln mt, while Jan-Nov imports of soybeans totaled 27.89 mln mt, acc. to customs figures
-- Indonesia's palm oil market rose in overnight trade, traders suggest support came from Malaysia futures market & good physical demand
-- German based oilseed analyst, Oil World, lowers 2007/08 Brazil soybean crop to 61.0 mln mt down from prior estimate of 61.7 mln mt
-- Oil World, a well known oilseed analyst, sees 2008 Argentine soybean sowings at 17.2 mln ha, a rise of 1.1 mln ha. The 17.2 mln ha is above the gov't own estimate of 16.6 mln ha
-- Private crop forecaster, Celeres, sees 92% of Soybean crop planted through Dec 7; estimates 34% of 2007/08 Soybean crop sold
-- Monday's USDA Soybeans Export Inspections: 32.915 mln bu; expected 26.0 mln bu
-- Dalian Sept Soybean futures were 35 yuan higher at 4457 yuan/mt; Soymeal May futures were 51 yuan higher, while Sept rose 39 yuan to 3331 yuan/mt as 1.29 mln contracts traded hands in Sept; Soyoil futures rose 76 to 9528 yuan/mt
-- Malaysian Palm: Traders in Malaysian palm futures say recent rains & flooding in key growing areas helped support futures in overnight trade rising to $872/mt
-- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 116,192; Pit Vol. 54,684; Open Interest Change: -3,422
-- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Below Normal Precip. The Corn Belt will see periods of rains and snow today into Thursday.
-- Outside markets. Energy +.88 at $88.75 ; Gold & Silver: -2.6 at $805 & up slightly at $14.7; US $ is trading higher vs. the Yen , steady vs. the Euro.
Cash Markets
-- CIF Soybeans off 1- 2 . Dec. +?? to +40, Jan. +45 to +48, Feb. +36 to +43, Mar. +35 to +40, Apr. +33 to +35, May +38
to +42, J/J +39 to +43.
Nate Smith
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