Jan Beans surged higher on Friday closing 21 cents higher. Most of the strength last week stemmed from meal demand. While oil held for the most part Meal gained over $20.00 for the week, Oil lost 36 and Beans gained 39 ¾ cents for the week. Thoughts over the last several weeks was that Soybean oil was following crude oil but with crude oil losing approximately $10.00 over the last 2 weeks and Soybean oil hovering near the highs traders say support for vegoil should continue. Volume was very heavy on Friday especially in Soybeans as the CBOT reported 182,978 Soybeans, 54,189 Soybean Oil and 54,289 Meal traded. Funds were buyers of an estimated 9,000 Soybeans, 2,000 Oil and 5,000 meal.
Early Opening calls are higher. Brazil bean acreage estimates appear to be slipping from pre-plant estimates, as reports of fewer acres planted than early estimatest, more to corn, estimates bean crop 58.1 mmt down from 59.4, corn 523 mmt, up from 51.4 mmt. The USDA supply and demand report due out tomorrow at 7:30 CST. Drier-than-normal weather in Argentina and some dryness in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul crop region are expected to boost prices, along with support from wheat. Friday's CFTC commitment of traders report for futures and options combined showed that as of last Tuesday, large speculators were long 154,936 soybeans, up 2,159 from the previous week, and short 31,564 lots, down 1,276. Overnight Chinese Soybeans, Meal and Oil closed lower.
Early Opening Calls: Soybeans 3 to 5 higher, Meal .50 to $ 1.00 higher and Oil .05 to .10 higher.
Top News
-- December 2007/08 Brazil Soybean output estimate by Conab is 58.1 mln mt compared to IBGE, Brazil's Census Bureau 58.2 mln mt estimate
-- USDA monthly supply/demand & ending stocks report Tuesday morning at 7:30 AM CT. Soybean ending stocks estimated 13 mln mt lower than prior report at 197 mln mt
-- The People's Bank of China said it is raising the reserve ratio to 14.5% from 13.5% as of Dec 25.
-- Dalian May Soybean futures rose 61 yuan; Sept rose 72 yuan in overnight trading; Soymeal May futures 80 higher to 3381 yuan/mt; Soyoil May futures settled 46 yuan higher to 9452 yuan/mt
-- Malaysian Palm Board November production report showed a rise of 4.4% to 1.65 mln mt compared to prior month's output
-- Malaysian Palm Board palm oil stocks data shows 1.81 mln mt in storage during November 16.2% higher than month ago
-- Intertek reported Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 449,543 mt in the Dec 1-10 period a drop of 1.2% from the same period in November
-- SGS reported Malaysian Palm Oil exports were at 432,315 mt in the Dec 1-10 period a slight rise of 0.6% from the same period in November
-- Malaysian Palm oil futures in Malaysia were little changed, Feb futures -$0.60 lower to $864.63/mt
-- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 137,642; Pit Vol. 40,942; Open Interest Change: +3,916
-- Outside markets. Energy complex -.10 at $88.15; Gold & Silver +5.0 at $799 & +.015 at $14; US $ up slightly vs. Yen and down vs. Euro
Cash Markets
Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track Ill Riv Frt
Dec +38/42 F +31/34 H +30/35 H +??/75 Z 400
Jan +48/52 F +43/45 H +40/55 H +70/80 H 410
Feb +38/42 H +50/51 H +50/60 H +75/85 H 425
Truck Beans Corn Wheat Meal Hi-pro Oil
Chicago -25 F -4 H -40 H
Toledo -42 F -12 H -28 H
Dec ILL -20 F -6 H -8 F -225 F
Nate Smith
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn group, inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. this material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss
