Jan beans closed down ¾ of a cent basically unchanged after a two sided trade. Beans were expected to open significantly lower after closing 10 lower at the end of the night session, but they seemed find strength before the opening. Talk before the opening seemed to revolve around traders wanting to buy beans 10-15 lower, but the market firmed on the open. Traders say beans can't find any aggressive sellers and they are being supported by excellent export sales, concerns about weather in So. America, and supportive technicals. The beans seem to be lacking needed bullish news to continue up to the highs from earlier in the week, but also can't find anybody willing to step out and sell the market. Export sales were 993,500 which was above the estimate of 500,000 to 800,000 tones. Brazil reported 89% of the soybean crop planted, so now traders will be paying much more attention to the weather as it becomes more and more important, but it is still early of the critical yield determining stage. Volume was heavy 165,398 Soybeans, 69,054 Soybean oil and 56,169 Meal traded. Funds were net sellers of an estimated 1,000 Soybeans, 1,000 Meal and 1,000 Oil on Thursday.
Early Opening calls are higher. Reports from an Official Chinese think today show Chinese Soya and grain traders have a bearish outlook for their markets as the government strives to curb rising food prices. Brazil's first registered case of Asian soybean rust of the 2007/08 crop turned up in Aral Moreira in Mato Grosso do Sul state near Paraguay, the government's crop research agency Embrapa said on Thursday. The Brazilian government has begun a moratorium on winter month (roughly June-August) planting in some center-west states where the fungus is a serious problem. The moratorium helps break the cycle of the fungus surviving the drier winter months into the next season. Overnight Chinese Soybean and Meal futures closed higher and Soybean Oil settled Sharply higher. Malaysian Palm Oil futures closed higher.
Early Opening Calls: Soybeans 5 to 8 higher, Meal $2.00 to $ 3.00 higher, Oil .20 to .30 higher.
Top News.
-- 23.36 mln mt of oilseed is expected to be produced in the EU during 2007/08, up from the prior forecast of 22.7 mln mt by industry group Coceral. Rapeseed production is expected at 17.76 mln mt up from last year's 15.96 mln mt
-- Dalian Sept Soybean futures settled 61 yuan higher to 4350 yuan/mt in overnight trade, next active month, May finished 71 yuan higher; May Soymeal finished 27 yuan higher; May Soyoil sharply higher up 114 yuan to 9406 yuan/mt
-- Malaysian Palm oil futures rose $5.97/mt to $864/mt in overnight trade
-- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 127,010; Pit Vol. 34,163; Open Interest Change: -1,738
-- Outside markets. Energy -.05 at $90.15; Gold & Silver: -.05 at $800 & steady at $14.45; US $ up slightly vs. Yen and down slightly vs. Euro
Cash Markets
Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track Ill Riv Frt
Dec +40/45 F +30/32 H +30/35 H +??/75 Z 390
Jan +51/55 F +42/45 H +40/55 H +70/80 H 400
Feb +40/44 H +49/51 H +50/60 H +75/85 H 425
Truck Beans Corn Wheat Meal Hi-pro Oil
Chicago -25 F -4 H -35 H
Toledo -46 F -14 H -28 H
Dec ILL -20 F -6 H -8 F -225 F
Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
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fax: (312) 896-2050
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