EUR/USD Technical Analysis for February 21, 2012
The EUR/USD pair gapped up originally during the Monday session as the word got out about the Greeks passing a measure to bring about more austerity in order to get their bailout money. The pair has recently been caught between the 1.3250 and 1.30 levels, and as a result we saw an assault on the upper level. The pair did manage to pierce that area, but later in the session saw the pair fall back below the level. The 100 day EMA is sitting just above current levels and the market looks set to struggle at this point. The candle for the session is a doji, and as a result the “signal” is a break on either side. At this point, we prefer to sell on a move down as the consolidation has been so strong.
EUR/USD Forecast February 21, 2012, Technical Analysis
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 21, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
Tuesday February 21, 2012 Economic Events.
Today are is a very light day, with only minor reports due that should not have any market effects.
07:00 CHF Trade Balance 2.50B 2.07B
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing -9.1B 10.8B
10:30 EUR Spanish Trade Balance -3.10B -2.70B
13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity 0.22 0.17
15:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -20 -21
18:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction 0.250%
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD continues to remain strong on the hopes of a final agreement on Greece today along with annoucments from China on reducing bank reserves, which is the same as flooding the banks with billions of dollars, increasing liquidity and growth. The pair is trading at 1.3245
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2012, Forecast
The markets are closed today for the Presidents Day Holiday
Brussels: The Eurozone Ministers continue in meetings with no decision at this time.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right CDU/CSU-FDP government coalition on Sunday agreed with the center-left opposition parties to jointly nominate former East German human rights activist Joachim Gauck to become the country’s next president. Gauck is not a member of a political party. The role of the German president is mainly ceremonial.
Greek bailout will “likely” get final approval in the week starting March 12, according to statement on Finnish Finance Ministry website. “The final approval for activating the EFSF guarantees and completing the PSI operation are conditional on the Troika and the eurogroup deeming the PSI as successful and Greece to have fulfilled its commitments”
China’s VP Xi Jinping, in a speech in Dublin last night, said his country is considering more support for Europe. The official said “We are considering more involvement in helping address the European debt issue through EFSF, ESM and other channels” adding “China supports the European integration process, the euro, by purchasing European bonds.”
In Italy Dec industrial orders rose 5.5% in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms as a result of increased domestic and foreign orders. It was the steepest gain since march 2011, ISTAT said. On the year, unadjusted industrial orders fell 4.3%, down from -0.7% y/y in November. –Dec seas. adjusted m/m domestic orders +5.8%; foreign orders +5.1% m/m .
Italian Industrial orders for Dec +5.5%m/m from +0.2% in Nov. Unadjusted -4.3% y/y Dec sales sa +3.4%m/m from +0.1$ in Nov Workday adjusted +5.6% y/y Improvement, with increases in domestic and foreign orders with the largest gain since March 2011.
Italian PM Monti say that his government is sticking to 2013 balanced budget target
In France February manufacturing sentiment 92 vs January 92 (91)also France manufacturing morale came in at forecast in MNI
UK Gross mortgage lending fell 14.1% on the month in January but was up 10.2% on a year ago, according to Council of Mortgage Lenders data. As the CML figures are not seasonally adjusted it said the monthly fall in January was not unexpected. The 10.2% rise on the year.
Monday February 20, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast
US markets closed today for holiday
|
|
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
|||
|
GBP |
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) |
4.1% |
-0.8% |
|
||||
|
THB |
Thai GDP (YoY) |
-9.0% |
-4.3% |
3.7% |
||||
|
EUR |
French Business Survey |
92 |
92 |
92 |
||||
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) |
5.5% |
-0.5% |
0.2% |
||||
|
RUB |
Russian Retail Sales (YoY) |
6.8% |
10.2% |
9.5% |
|
|||
|
RUB |
Russian Unemployment Rate |
6.6% |
6.3% |
6.1% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
USD/JPY Technical Analysis for February 21, 2012
USD/JPY gapped at the open on Monday, only to turn around and fill the gap as technicians will have undoubtedly tried to fill the gap. The pair looks set to try and break through the 80 level, but there is a massive barrier at the level, and we are looking for a possible weak daily candle form which to sell. The breaking of this barrier won’t be confirmed until we can get a close well over it. We are willing to go long on a buy and hold basis if the pair closes above 0.81, and at that point in time we think the trend will have changed significantly. However, the selling of this pair will more than likely be a “cleaner” trade if we get the signal of weakness at 80 or so.
USD/JPY Forecast February 21, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis for February 21, 2012
Economic Events: GMT: + 10:00
10:30 AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision.
More dovish than expected minutes could be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD, while more hawkish than expected minutes could be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD.
12:00 NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 2.8%
Inflation Expectations measures the percentage that business managers expect the price of goods and services to change annually during the next two years. The data is released quarterly.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
12:30 AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens (September 2006 – September 2013) is to speak. As the head of the RBA, which sets short term interest rates, he has a major influence over the value of the Australian dollar. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )
USD/JPY was trading at 79.53. The USD fell on news from China and Greece. The Yen had a positive move after the decision by the Chinese central bank to lower the ratio of funds that commercial banks must hold as reserves. The cut, which will free up more money for commercial banks to lend, is aimed at helping to improve economic growth. Injecting the equivalent of billions of dollars into the economy, which will boost demand for goods and services in New Zealand and elsewhere in Asia and the Pacific.
Investors are hopeful European finance ministers will approve Greece’s $US130 billion bailout package at a meeting in Brussels on Monday. Italian Prime Minster Mario Monti, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos have all expressed optimism that an agreement on Greece can be reached.
Data released today showed that Japan’s trade deficit widened significantly in January to ¥1.475 trillion ($18.5 billion), its largest on record. The weaker currency helped Japanese exporters add to gains made last week after the Bank of Japan’s unexpected expansion of its asset-buying program.
Monday February 20, 2012 Economic Data actual v forecast
US markets closed
|
NZD |
|
PPI Input (QoQ) |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|||
|
JPY |
|
Trade Balance |
-0.61T |
-0.85T |
-0.57T |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
GBP/USD Technical Analysis for February 21, 2012
The GBP/USD pair had an initial gap on the open Monday, but has pulled back a bit after the fact. The 1.58 – 1.59 area has been very resistive, and as a result this pair struggled to hold onto gains during the session.
The would have originally received a bit of a bid because of potential European solutions to the Greek debt situation. The Pound and the United Kingdom itself is heavily exposed to European banks and debt, and as a result the future of the Pound is highly correlated to the future of the Euro, at least for the intermediate term. As goes Europe, so goes the UK to a lesser extent.
The pair has consistently struggled at these area, and as a result we are not overly excited to go long at this point. The 1.60 level should continue to cause reactions as well, and quite frankly the move higher has been very parabolic and could use a bit of a pullback, or at least one that is much stronger than the one we have so far.
The “risk on / risk off” attitude of the markets will undoubtedly play a massive part in the direction of this pair, and headlines coming out of Europe will more than likely be the catalyst for those headlines. Because of this, the pair will more than likely be difficult to trade in the near term as the schizophrenic nature of the markets lately will more than likely continue to push things around.
The UK looks as if it is going into some kind of recessionary environment, or possible slowdown at the very least, and because of this there is a real chance the Bank of England will either ease through more bond purchasing programs, or actual rate cuts, or even both. With this in mind, it is very likely the Pound will continue to struggle over the long term.
The pair sets up a selling opportunity if it can break below the gap from Monday, but if not – we are willing to wait until a close well above the 1.60 level to go long. The downside seems a bit less crowded, but we will have to follow the market regardless.
GBP/USD Forecast February 21, 2012, Technical Analysis
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 21, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
Tuesday February 21, 2012 Economic Events.
Today are is a very light day, with only minor reports due that should not have any market effects.
07:00 CHF Trade Balance 2.50B 2.07B
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing -9.1B 10.8B
10:30 EUR Spanish Trade Balance -3.10B -2.70B
13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity 0.22 0.17
15:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -20 -21
18:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction 0.250%
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD is currently up trading at 1.5859, as the USD weakened a bit after the decision by the Chinese central bank to lower the ratio of funds that commercial banks must hold as reserves. The cut, which will free up more money for commercial banks to lend, is aimed at helping to improve economic growth. Injecting the equivalent of billions of dollars into the economy, which will boost demand for goods and services.
Investors are hopeful European finance ministers will approve Greece’s $US130 billion bailout package at a meeting in Brussels on Monday. Italian Prime Minster Mario Monti, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos have all expressed optimism that an agreement on Greece can be reached.
The markets are closed today for the Presidents Day Holiday
Brussels: The Eurozone Ministers continue in meetings with no decision at this time.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right CDU/CSU-FDP government coalition on Sunday agreed with the center-left opposition parties to jointly nominate former East German human rights activist Joachim Gauck to become the country’s next president. Gauck is not a member of a political party. The role of the German president is mainly ceremonial.
Greek bailout will “likely” get final approval in the week starting March 12, according to statement on Finnish Finance Ministry website. “The final approval for activating the EFSF guarantees and completing the PSI operation are conditional on the Troika and the eurogroup deeming the PSI as successful and Greece to have fulfilled its commitments”
China’s VP Xi Jinping, in a speech in Dublin last night, said his country is considering more support for Europe. The official said “We are considering more involvement in helping address the European debt issue through EFSF, ESM and other channels” adding “China supports the European integration process, the euro, by purchasing European bonds.”
In Italy Dec industrial orders rose 5.5% in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms as a result of increased domestic and foreign orders. It was the steepest gain since march 2011, ISTAT said. On the year, unadjusted industrial orders fell 4.3%, down from -0.7% y/y in November. –Dec seas. adjusted m/m domestic orders +5.8%; foreign orders +5.1% m/m .
Italian Industrial orders for Dec +5.5%m/m from +0.2% in Nov. Unadjusted -4.3% y/y Dec sales sa +3.4%m/m from +0.1$ in Nov Workday adjusted +5.6% y/y Improvement, with increases in domestic and foreign orders with the largest gain since March 2011.
Italian PM Monti say that his government is sticking to 2013 balanced budget target
In France February manufacturing sentiment 92 vs January 92 (91)also France manufacturing morale came in at forecast in MNI
UK Gross mortgage lending fell 14.1% on the month in January but was up 10.2% on a year ago, according to Council of Mortgage Lenders data. As the CML figures are not seasonally adjusted it said the monthly fall in January was not unexpected. The 10.2% rise on the year.
Monday February 20, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast
US markets closed today for holiday
|
|
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
|||
|
GBP |
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) |
4.1% |
-0.8% |
|
||||
|
THB |
Thai GDP (YoY) |
-9.0% |
-4.3% |
3.7% |
||||
|
EUR |
French Business Survey |
92 |
92 |
92 |
||||
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) |
5.5% |
-0.5% |
0.2% |
||||
|
RUB |
Russian Retail Sales (YoY) |
6.8% |
10.2% |
9.5% |
|
|||
|
RUB |
Russian Unemployment Rate |
6.6% |
6.3% |
6.1% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis for February 21, 2012
EUR/GBP has a positive day as the pair gained in reaction to the suggestion that the Greeks will be bailed out. Perhaps not so much a reaction of Euro strength, but rather short covering this pair rose. However, it is currently in the middle of consolidation, and in the center of it to boot. With this in mind, it is hard to take a trade at this point, but we do have a nice guide at the 0.84 level for resistance. Any weakness at that area has us selling this pair as the downtrend is strong. The buying of this pair won’t be done until we get well over the 0.85 level.
EUR/GBP Forecast February 21, 2012, Technical Analysis
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis for February 21, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
Tuesday February 21, 2012 Economic Events.
Today are is a very light day, with only minor reports due that should not have any market effects.
07:00 CHF Trade Balance 2.50B 2.07B
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing -9.1B 10.8B
10:30 EUR Spanish Trade Balance -3.10B -2.70B
13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity 0.22 0.17
15:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -20 -21
18:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction 0.250%
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2012, Forecast
The pair EUR/GBP is currently at 0.8358 holding gains, after the decision by the Chinese central bank to lower the ratio of funds that commercial banks must hold as reserves. The cut, which will free up more money for commercial banks to lend, is aimed at helping to improve economic growth. Injecting the equivalent of billions of dollars into the economy, which will boost demand for goods and services
Investors are hopeful European finance ministers will approve Greece’s $US130 billion bailout package at a meeting in Brussels on Monday. Italian Prime Minster Mario Monti, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos have all expressed optimism that an agreement on Greece can be reached.
The markets are closed today for the Presidents Day Holiday
Brussels: The Eurozone Ministers continue in meetings with no decision at this time.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right CDU/CSU-FDP government coalition on Sunday agreed with the center-left opposition parties to jointly nominate former East German human rights activist Joachim Gauck to become the country’s next president. Gauck is not a member of a political party. The role of the German president is mainly ceremonial.
Greek bailout will “likely” get final approval in the week starting March 12, according to statement on Finnish Finance Ministry website. “The final approval for activating the EFSF guarantees and completing the PSI operation are conditional on the Troika and the eurogroup deeming the PSI as successful and Greece to have fulfilled its commitments”
China’s VP Xi Jinping, in a speech in Dublin last night, said his country is considering more support for Europe. The official said “We are considering more involvement in helping address the European debt issue through EFSF, ESM and other channels” adding “China supports the European integration process, the euro, by purchasing European bonds.”
In Italy Dec industrial orders rose 5.5% in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms as a result of increased domestic and foreign orders. It was the steepest gain since march 2011, ISTAT said. On the year, unadjusted industrial orders fell 4.3%, down from -0.7% y/y in November. –Dec seas. adjusted m/m domestic orders +5.8%; foreign orders +5.1% m/m .
Italian Industrial orders for Dec +5.5%m/m from +0.2% in Nov. Unadjusted -4.3% y/y Dec sales sa +3.4%m/m from +0.1$ in Nov Workday adjusted +5.6% y/y Improvement, with increases in domestic and foreign orders with the largest gain since March 2011.
Italian PM Monti say that his government is sticking to 2013 balanced budget target
In France February manufacturing sentiment 92 vs January 92 (91)also France manufacturing morale came in at forecast in MNI
UK Gross mortgage lending fell 14.1% on the month in January but was up 10.2% on a year ago, according to Council of Mortgage Lenders data. As the CML figures are not seasonally adjusted it said the monthly fall in January was not unexpected. The 10.2% rise on the year.
Monday February 20, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast
US markets closed today for holiday
|
|
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
|||
|
GBP |
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) |
4.1% |
-0.8% |
|
||||
|
THB |
Thai GDP (YoY) |
-9.0% |
-4.3% |
3.7% |
||||
|
EUR |
French Business Survey |
92 |
92 |
92 |
||||
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) |
5.5% |
-0.5% |
0.2% |
||||
|
RUB |
Russian Retail Sales (YoY) |
6.8% |
10.2% |
9.5% |
|
|||
|
RUB |
Russian Unemployment Rate |
6.6% |
6.3% |
6.1% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
USD/CHF Technical Analysis for February 21, 2012
USD/CHF fell during the Monday session as the Dollar lost against many other currencies. The “risk on” attitude in the markets was somewhat predicated by the idea of the Greeks passing another austerity passage that could in theory allow the European Union to send another bailout their way. The meeting of European Union Finance Ministers on Monday hasn’t produced an agreement yet, but at the time of writing they are still looking for solutions.
The Swiss are working against the value of the Franc, most notably against the Euro. This will more than likely continue to weigh upon the value of the Franc everywhere, and this pair will be no different. The Swiss send 80% of their exports into the European Union, and as a result they will continue to worry about the strength of the franc versus the Euro. As a result, we have a bit of a buffer in this pair as the threat of intervention still looms large against the Euro.
The US economy has shown signs of improving over the last several months, and while the Europeans struggle, it appears that the USA is a bit of a bright spot in the world at the moment. With this in mind, it makes sense that more money will flow into the US, and away from places that are heavily dependent on the EU in general.
The candle for the Monday session is a hammer, and as a result it looks like support is coming back into the market in the general vicinity. The 0.91 level is the start of serious support in the market, and the range runs all the way down to the 0.90 level. The hammer offers a decent sign that the buyers are ready to step back into the markets at this point. On a break higher than the level from the Monday candle, we are ready to go long for the time being in this pair. A move to 0.95 could be possible, but there will be numerous staggers on the way up as the market is so cluttered presently.
USD/CHF Forecast February 21, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis for February 21, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
Tuesday February 21, 2012 Economic Events.
Today are is a very light day, with only minor reports due that should not have any market effects.
07:00 CHF Trade Balance 2.50B 2.07B
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing -9.1B 10.8B
10:30 EUR Spanish Trade Balance -3.10B -2.70B
13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity 0.22 0.17
15:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -20 -21
18:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction 0.250%
USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2012, Forecast
The USD/CHF trading at down slightly at 0.9114, after the decision by the Chinese central bank to lower the ratio of funds that commercial banks must hold as reserves. The cut, which will free up more money for commercial banks to lend, is aimed at helping to improve economic growth.
Investors are hopeful European finance ministers will approve Greece’s $US130 billion bailout package at a meeting in Brussels on Monday. Tuesday, the CHF will be affected by the trade balance data due out in early morning.
The markets are closed today for the Presidents Day Holiday
Brussels: The Eurozone Ministers continue in meetings with no decision at this time.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right CDU/CSU-FDP government coalition on Sunday agreed with the center-left opposition parties to jointly nominate former East German human rights activist Joachim Gauck to become the country’s next president. Gauck is not a member of a political party. The role of the German president is mainly ceremonial.
Greek bailout will “likely” get final approval in the week starting March 12, according to statement on Finnish Finance Ministry website. “The final approval for activating the EFSF guarantees and completing the PSI operation are conditional on the Troika and the eurogroup deeming the PSI as successful and Greece to have fulfilled its commitments”
China’s VP Xi Jinping, in a speech in Dublin last night, said his country is considering more support for Europe. The official said “We are considering more involvement in helping address the European debt issue through EFSF, ESM and other channels” adding “China supports the European integration process, the euro, by purchasing European bonds.”
In Italy Dec industrial orders rose 5.5% in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms as a result of increased domestic and foreign orders. It was the steepest gain since march 2011, ISTAT said. On the year, unadjusted industrial orders fell 4.3%, down from -0.7% y/y in November. –Dec seas. adjusted m/m domestic orders +5.8%; foreign orders +5.1% m/m .
Italian Industrial orders for Dec +5.5%m/m from +0.2% in Nov. Unadjusted -4.3% y/y Dec sales sa +3.4%m/m from +0.1$ in Nov Workday adjusted +5.6% y/y Improvement, with increases in domestic and foreign orders with the largest gain since March 2011.
Italian PM Monti say that his government is sticking to 2013 balanced budget target
In France February manufacturing sentiment 92 vs January 92 (91)also France manufacturing morale came in at forecast in MNI
UK Gross mortgage lending fell 14.1% on the month in January but was up 10.2% on a year ago, according to Council of Mortgage Lenders data. As the CML figures are not seasonally adjusted it said the monthly fall in January was not unexpected. The 10.2% rise on the year.
Monday February 20, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast
US markets closed today for holiday
|
|
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
|||
|
GBP |
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) |
4.1% |
-0.8% |
|
||||
|
THB |
Thai GDP (YoY) |
-9.0% |
-4.3% |
3.7% |
||||
|
EUR |
French Business Survey |
92 |
92 |
92 |
||||
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) |
5.5% |
-0.5% |
0.2% |
||||
|
RUB |
Russian Retail Sales (YoY) |
6.8% |
10.2% |
9.5% |
|
|||
|
RUB |
Russian Unemployment Rate |
6.6% |
6.3% |
6.1% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for February 21, 2012
EUR/CHF is one of the most unique pairs on the market right now. Unlike most others, this one has a clear cut barrier. The Swiss National Bank is currently defending the 1.20 level as the “minimum acceptable rate” that it will let this pair trade at. Because of this, the pair simply cannot be sold at this area. The pair did fall during the Monday session, but the floor is just below, and as a result we are looking to buy on supportive candles, mainly from a shorter time frame. The trade would be short-term, but could be good for a quick 50 – 60 pip gain.
EUR/CHF Forecast February 21, 2012, Technical Analysis
EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis for February 21, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
Tuesday February 21, 2012 Economic Events.
Today are is a very light day, with only minor reports due that should not have any market effects.
07:00 CHF Trade Balance 2.50B 2.07B
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing -9.1B 10.8B
10:30 EUR Spanish Trade Balance -3.10B -2.70B
13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity 0.22 0.17
15:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -20 -21
18:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction 0.250%
EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2012, Forecast
EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2072 down a bit as the euro has been up all day on the back of news from China and also on hopes of a final agreement with Greece. Swiss Trade Balance data is due Tuesday morning.
The markets are closed today for the Presidents Day Holiday
Brussels: The Eurozone Ministers continue in meetings with no decision at this time.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right CDU/CSU-FDP government coalition on Sunday agreed with the center-left opposition parties to jointly nominate former East German human rights activist Joachim Gauck to become the country’s next president. Gauck is not a member of a political party. The role of the German president is mainly ceremonial.
Greek bailout will “likely” get final approval in the week starting March 12, according to statement on Finnish Finance Ministry website. “The final approval for activating the EFSF guarantees and completing the PSI operation are conditional on the Troika and the eurogroup deeming the PSI as successful and Greece to have fulfilled its commitments”
China’s VP Xi Jinping, in a speech in Dublin last night, said his country is considering more support for Europe. The official said “We are considering more involvement in helping address the European debt issue through EFSF, ESM and other channels” adding “China supports the European integration process, the euro, by purchasing European bonds.”
In Italy Dec industrial orders rose 5.5% in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms as a result of increased domestic and foreign orders. It was the steepest gain since march 2011, ISTAT said. On the year, unadjusted industrial orders fell 4.3%, down from -0.7% y/y in November. –Dec seas. adjusted m/m domestic orders +5.8%; foreign orders +5.1% m/m .
Italian Industrial orders for Dec +5.5%m/m from +0.2% in Nov. Unadjusted -4.3% y/y Dec sales sa +3.4%m/m from +0.1$ in Nov Workday adjusted +5.6% y/y Improvement, with increases in domestic and foreign orders with the largest gain since March 2011.
Italian PM Monti say that his government is sticking to 2013 balanced budget target
In France February manufacturing sentiment 92 vs January 92 (91)also France manufacturing morale came in at forecast in MNI
UK Gross mortgage lending fell 14.1% on the month in January but was up 10.2% on a year ago, according to Council of Mortgage Lenders data. As the CML figures are not seasonally adjusted it said the monthly fall in January was not unexpected. The 10.2% rise on the year.
Monday February 20, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast
US markets closed today for holiday
|
|
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
|||
|
GBP |
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) |
4.1% |
-0.8% |
|
||||
|
THB |
Thai GDP (YoY) |
-9.0% |
-4.3% |
3.7% |
||||
|
EUR |
French Business Survey |
92 |
92 |
92 |
||||
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) |
5.5% |
-0.5% |
0.2% |
||||
|
RUB |
Russian Retail Sales (YoY) |
6.8% |
10.2% |
9.5% |
|
|||
|
RUB |
Russian Unemployment Rate |
6.6% |
6.3% |
6.1% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
AUD/USD Technical Analysis for February 21, 2012
AUD/USD gapped at the open during Monday trading in Asia. The pair finds itself in the 1.08 area, and this area is one that will attract a lot of attention at this point. The pair has been strong lately, and has been used as a proxy for yield, safety, and “risk on” appetite in general. Because of this, the pair has been one that selling is very difficult.
The gap has filled already, but the reaction at the bottom of it has been muted. This is probably in part due to the fact that the Americans were off celebrating President’s Day, and as a result the volume was quite think in the latter hours of the session. The move in the earlier day was interesting as it flies in the face of a bailout agreement coming. The pair should have shot straight up, but perhaps the market is growing tired of the constant Greece turmoil in Europe, and as a result is much muted in its reactions.
The Chinese have also cut reserve rates for domestic banks, and as a result flooded the economy with liquidity. The Chinese buy a lot of raw materials from Australia, and as a result this is a strong sign for the Aussie in general. With that being said, the 1.08 barrier is one that traders will have to be aware of going forward. It has been resistive a couple of times now, and even though the recent action suggests that the market is going to go much higher, a pullback looks very possible at this point in time.
With all of this in mind, we are buying the Aussie on pullbacks, and most certainly if the pair can close above the 1.08 level on a daily close. The Australian dollar got a bit of a boost recently when the central bank didn’t cut rates. The markets had anticipated a cut, and when it didn’t come – the Aussie gained. With all things being equal – we still stand by our prediction of a 1.12 print in the pair based off of the triangle breakout form 1.04 earlier.
AUD/USD Forecast February 21, 2012, Technical Analysis
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 21, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT: + 10:00)
10:30 AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision.
More dovish than expected minutes could be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD, while more hawkish than expected minutes could be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD.
12:00 NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 2.8%
Inflation Expectations measures the percentage that business managers expect the price of goods and services to change annually during the next two years. The data is released quarterly.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
12:30 AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens (September 2006 – September 2013) is to speak. As the head of the RBA, which sets short term interest rates, he has a major influence over the value of the Australian dollar. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2012 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )
AUD/USD was trading at 1.0744 having risen to one-week highs as traders become more optimistic about the global economy and the delivery of a second aid package to Greece.
The Aussie had a positive move after the decision by the Chinese central bank to lower the ratio of funds that commercial banks must hold as reserves. The cut, which will free up more money for commercial banks to lend, is aimed at helping to improve economic growth.
Eurozone finance ministers will meet in Brussels tonight, and are expected to decide whether to approve the delivery of a second bailout package for debt-laden Greece.
Monday February 20, 2012 Economic Data actual v forecast
US markets closed
|
NZD |
|
PPI Input (QoQ) |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|||
|
JPY |
|
Trade Balance |
-0.61T |
-0.85T |
-0.57T |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
USD/CAD Technical Analysis for February 21, 2012
USD/CAD gapped down at the open during the Monday session in Asia, only to turn around and fill the area. The pair is very bearish at the moment, but the 0.99 level has been putting up a good fight for the bulls. The pair has support all the way down to the 0.9750 level, and as a result we haven’t been selling this pair. The 1.01 level above should continue to offer resistance, and as a result we see this pair as very tight and a market we are currently waiting to see if it can break out of the very tight consolidation area.
USD/CAD Forecast February 21, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis for February 21, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
13:30 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% 0.3%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2% 0.3%
13:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.5% -0.4%
Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in Canada, excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered a pace indicator for the Canadian economy.
Wholesale Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the wholesale level. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.
13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity 0.22 0.17
A monthly report by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank that tracks economic activity in the 7th district, which is comprised of Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin. The index is useful in tracking economic growth and identifying potential inflation.
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is currently trading 0.9938 slightly down, after the decision by the Chinese central bank to lower the ratio of funds that commercial banks must hold as reserves. The cut, which will free up more money for commercial banks to lend, is aimed at helping to improve economic growth. Injecting the equivalent of billions of dollars into the economy.
Investors are hopeful European finance ministers will approve Greece’s $US130 billion bailout package at a meeting in Brussels on Monday. Italian Prime Minster Mario Monti, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos have all expressed optimism that an agreement on Greece can be reached.
The markets are closed today for the Presidents Day Holiday
Brussels: The Eurozone Ministers continue in meetings with no decision at this time.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right CDU/CSU-FDP government coalition on Sunday agreed with the center-left opposition parties to jointly nominate former East German human rights activist Joachim Gauck to become the country’s next president. Gauck is not a member of a political party. The role of the German president is mainly ceremonial.
Greek bailout will “likely” get final approval in the week starting March 12, according to statement on Finnish Finance Ministry website. “The final approval for activating the EFSF guarantees and completing the PSI operation are conditional on the Troika and the eurogroup deeming the PSI as successful and Greece to have fulfilled its commitments”
China’s VP Xi Jinping, in a speech in Dublin last night, said his country is considering more support for Europe. The official said “We are considering more involvement in helping address the European debt issue through EFSF, ESM and other channels” adding “China supports the European integration process, the euro, by purchasing European bonds.”
In Italy Dec industrial orders rose 5.5% in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms as a result of increased domestic and foreign orders. It was the steepest gain since march 2011, ISTAT said. On the year, unadjusted industrial orders fell 4.3%, down from -0.7% y/y in November. –Dec seas. adjusted m/m domestic orders +5.8%; foreign orders +5.1% m/m .
Italian Industrial orders for Dec +5.5%m/m from +0.2% in Nov. Unadjusted -4.3% y/y Dec sales sa +3.4%m/m from +0.1$ in Nov Workday adjusted +5.6% y/y Improvement, with increases in domestic and foreign orders with the largest gain since March 2011.
Italian PM Monti say that his government is sticking to 2013 balanced budget target
In France February manufacturing sentiment 92 vs January 92 (91)also France manufacturing morale came in at forecast in MNI
UK Gross mortgage lending fell 14.1% on the month in January but was up 10.2% on a year ago, according to Council of Mortgage Lenders data. As the CML figures are not seasonally adjusted it said the monthly fall in January was not unexpected. The 10.2% rise on the year.
Monday February 20, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast
US markets closed today for holiday
|
|
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
|||
|
GBP |
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) |
4.1% |
-0.8% |
|
||||
|
THB |
Thai GDP (YoY) |
-9.0% |
-4.3% |
3.7% |
||||
|
EUR |
French Business Survey |
92 |
92 |
92 |
||||
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) |
5.5% |
-0.5% |
0.2% |
||||
|
RUB |
Russian Retail Sales (YoY) |
6.8% |
10.2% |
9.5% |
|
|||
|
RUB |
Russian Unemployment Rate |
6.6% |
6.3% |
6.1% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
NZD/USD Technical Analysis for February 21, 2012
NZD/USD gapped at the open for Monday, only to fall and try to fill the gap. This will have been expected by traders when this happened, so the fall won’t worry most bulls in this pair. The commodity trade continues to gain overall from the massive amounts of liquidity flowing into the markets, and the Kiwi will be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
The pair is still a “buy only” pair for us, and as a strategy we are buying dips and new highs as this pair simply grinds higher and higher over time. The 0.85 level is certainly in the cards going forward, and even higher will more than likely be seen. We will not sell the Kiwi at the moment.
NZD/USD Forecast February 21, 2012, Technical Analysis
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 21, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT + 10:00)
10:30 AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision.
More dovish than expected minutes could be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD, while more hawkish than expected minutes could be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD.
12:00 NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 2.8%
Inflation Expectations measures the percentage that business managers expect the price of goods and services to change annually during the next two years. The data is released quarterly.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
12:30 AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens (September 2006 – September 2013) is to speak. As the head of the RBA, which sets short term interest rates, he has a major influence over the value of the Australian dollar. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: (Close of the Asian session )
NZD/USD reached a high of 0.8416 and is currently trading at 0.8410 as traders become more optimistic about the global economy and the delivery of a second aid package to Greece.
The kiwi had a positive move after the decision by the Chinese central bank to lower the ratio of funds that commercial banks must hold as reserves. The cut, which will free up more money for commercial banks to lend, is aimed at helping to improve economic growth. Injecting the equivalent of billions of dollars into the economy, which will boost demand for goods and services in New Zealand and elsewhere in Asia and the Pacific.
Eurozone finance ministers will meet in Brussels tonight, and are expected to decide whether to approve the delivery of a second bailout package for debt-laden Greece.
Monday February 20, 2012 Economic Data actual v forecast
US markets closed
|
NZD |
|
PPI Input (QoQ) |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|||
|
JPY |
|
Trade Balance |
-0.61T |
-0.85T |
-0.57T |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
