By FX Empire.com

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for February 20, 2012

EUR/USD rose during the session on Friday as the market tried to rally on all things risky. However, there is a massively important meeting in Europe on Monday that will decide whether or not the Greeks get their bailout. Perhaps it was a fear that headlines could come into the market and wreak havoc on the pair that caused the selloff, or perhaps it is real weakness. Either way, this pair looks like it wants to fall. However, the 1.30 level below extends support down to the 1.29 mark, and that will have to be overcome for any down move to pick up a momentum. As far as buying the pair will need to overcome the 1.3250 level for us to get long at this point. In the meantime, expect a lot of noise.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

US markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 20 00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD continues its climb back up today, after falling below 1.30 in yesterdays mid day trading, the euro has been steadily rising. Ending the day at 1.3158 up .0029

The increased risk appetite is returning to the markets, after the ECB announced a bond swap with Greece and Merkel and Monti noted that there could be a deal as soon as Monday, but we have all heard this before.

Euro-zone construction output edged up for the second month running in December, but that wasn’t enough to stop a contraction in the fourth quarter overall. The European Union’s statistics agency said overall construction output in the 17 countries that use the euro rose.

Banks’ emergency overnight borrowing from the European Central Bank fell further Thursday, illustrating the reduced market tensions since the ECB flooded the banking system with liquidity via its first three-year loan operation

Swedish economic growth in 2012 will probably be much lower than the government’s 1.3% forecast last autumn, Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg told reporters Friday. “The Riksbank and the commercial banks expect growth of around half a percent

The US economy is expected to continue strengthening, possibly picking up this spring and summer, the Conference Board said Friday as it reported that its index of leading economic indicators grew 0.4% in January, led by the interest-rate spread and manufacturing hours.

The underlying rate of U.S. inflation accelerated by the fastest pace in four months in January, the Labor Department said Friday. The consumer price index increased 0.2%, driven by the first increase in gasoline prices since September. Food prices rose 0.2 % for the second straight month. The core CPI index, excluding food and energy costs, was up 0.2% in January. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.3% in January after remaining flat in the prior month. The core rate was expected to rise 0.2% after rising 0.1% in the previous month.

The government’s consumer price index rose 0.2% in January, just under the 0.3% expected by analysts. The core rate that excludes volatile food and energy prices held at 0.2%, in line with expectations

Americans’ cost of living rises 0.2% in January, driven higher by the first increase in energy prices in four months, according to Labor Department data.

On this pair it is probably best to see what the weekend brings. Tensions are still high in the eurozone between Greece, Athens and Brussels.

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD		Singaporean Trade Balance	1.26B				7.61B
EUR		German PPI (MoM)	0.6%		0.2%		-0.4%
EUR		Current Account	2.0B		2.3B		-0.9B
GBP		Retail Sales (MoM)	0.9%		-0.2%		0.6%
BRL		Brazilian Unemployment Rate	5.5%		5.4%		4.7%
CAD		Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.1%		-0.5%
CAD		CPI (MoM)	0.4%		0.3%		-0.6%
USD		Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.3%		0.1%
USD		CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.3%		0.0%
CAD		Leading Indicators (MoM)	0.7%		0.6%		0.7%

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis for February 20, 2012

The USD/JPY pair continued to shoot straight up during the Friday session as the Yen is starting to become parabolic in this move. The Bank of Japan has announced an escalation of bond buying, and as a result the pair continues to gain momentum and the Yen in general is being sold off.

However, the 80 level just above is an area that will give the bulls a fight as it is one of the most impressive resistance levels on any chart in the Forex world currently. Because of this, and the fact that the pair is so parabolic, it is hard to see that the upward momentum will continue straight through the level unabated. The level simply will produce some kind of reaction.

The area is where we are looking for our next signal and we are willing to sell right away on signs of weakness as we approach the 80 level. The level has proven to be very important in the past, and there is no reason to think that it will have changed so much recently, even with the momentum. Either way, this parabolic move will have to slow down. This area seems to be a great spot for it.

The pair is particularly risk sensitive and negative headlines from the European Union will more than likely play havoc in this pair if something goes wrong. The Yen will still be a bit of a safe haven, and as a result it will be bought up if things go wrong with Greece, or other such issues.

The breaking of the 80 level would have the market enter a new phase as we would have seen one of the largest resistance areas broken. A daily close above that level would be needed in order for us to think the signal is real in that case. Buying at current levels is simply too close to the decision area, and as such we need to wait for confirmation.

If the area produces a particularly weak candle, we are willing to sell it as we see the 80 level as a binary event. One of two things will happen: Either the market continues up, up, up and away as we close above that level, or it continues to keep a lid on price. 

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis for February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

US Markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 19 21:45     NZD      PPI Input (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

21:45     NZD      PPI Output (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Output measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers.

 Feb. 20  00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )

USD/JPY was trading 79.11 up .18. The pair is higher after strong American economic data and positive sentiment in Europe caused a global rally in equities and risk currencies.

At mid day, the currency was trading at 78.82  US cents, down from 78.93 cents on Thursday.

The number of U.S. workers making new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly four years. 

The government reporting initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 last week, the lowest since March 2008.

Other reports had housing starts up 1.5% last month, while wholesale prices climbing 0.1% in January.

Reports just received say that the ECB will exchange their currently existing old Greek bonds for new ones to avoid any legislative action issued by the Greek government to force bondholders to take a settlement.

 Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual

	GBP		Nationwide Consumer Confidence	47		40		38
	AUD		Employment Change	46.3K		10.9K		-35.6K
	AUD		Unemployment Rate	5.1%		5.3%		5.2%
	SEK		Swedish CPI (YoY)	1.9%		1.9%		2.3%
	SEK		Swedish Interest Rate Decision	1.50%		1.50%		1.75%
	EUR		ECB Monthly Report
	USD		Building Permits	0.68M		0.68M		0.67M
	USD		Core PPI (MoM)	0.4%		0.1%		0.3%
	CAD		Foreign Securities Purchases	7.38B		7.98B		14.64B
	USD		Housing Starts	0.70M		0.68M		0.69M
	CAD		Manufacturing Sales (MoM)	0.60%		0.50%		1.90%
	USD		PPI (MoM)	0.1%		0.3%		-0.1%
	USD		Initial Jobless Claims	348K		364K		361K
	USD		Continuing Jobless Claims	3426K		3550K		3526K
	USD		Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
	MXN		Mexican GDP (YoY)	3.7%		3.9%		4.5%
	USD		Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	10.2		8.4		7.3

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis for February 20, 2012

The GBP/USD pair rose on Friday only to turn around in the end. The pair formed a shooting star at the 1.58 level, and although we have seen a nice pushback from the bulls, this latest candle seems to confirm what the weekly candle form last week showed: Serious resistance in this area, and no lack of sellers willing to step in and put their money into the market.

The British economy is highly exposed to the European Union, and as a result it could get hit rather hard if the EU falls apart economically in the future. This will without a doubt put a little bit of fear into owning the pound, and as a result it will find doubters no matter what.

The level is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the most recent bear trend in this pair, and the 1.58 level seemingly continues to be important in this market. The Pound is also being weighed down a bit because of austerity in the UK. The inability of global markets to stabilize will also continue to offer support for the US Treasury market, and this in turn will offer support for the US dollar.

The trend is still down, and has been for some time. The recent action has been very parabolic and bullish, but these types of moves are very difficult to keep moving, especially when the overall market is down. Because of this, we are suspicious of moves to the upside in this pair until we see the 1.60 level broken to the upside on a daily close.

The lowering of price will be tested as we approach the recent lows at the mid-1.56 handle, and if that level gives we could see real acceleration of the down trend at that point. The 1.55 and 1.53 levels will also come into play, and could offer support. If the 1.53 level gives way – this pair could very well end up around the 1.40 handle, and this would have the market selling off the Pound en masse. With this in mind, we simply must bet on the downside at the moment as the obstacles seem less impressive.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

US Markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 20 00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is currently at 1.5820 up 0.0020. The USD lost some of its appeal today as investors were more optimistic about a completed agreement with Greece, breathing a sigh of relief, investors to more risky assets. Merkel and Monti signaled there could be a deal in place on Monday and the ECB bond swap seems to be moving forward.

 

Retail sales in the U.K. rose unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Friday. In a report, U.K. Office for National Statistics said that retail sales rose to 0.9%, from 0.6% in the preceding month .

 

The US economy is expected to continue strengthening, possibly picking up this spring and summer, the Conference Board said Friday as it reported that its index of leading economic indicators grew 0.4% in January, led by the interest-rate spread and manufacturing hours.

The underlying rate of U.S. inflation accelerated by the fastest pace in four months in January, the Labor Department said Friday. The consumer price index increased 0.2%, driven by the first increase in gasoline prices since September. Food prices rose 0.2 % for the second straight month. The core CPI index, excluding food and energy costs, was up 0.2% in January. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.3% in January after remaining flat in the prior month. The core rate was expected to rise 0.2% after rising 0.1% in the previous month.

The government’s consumer price index rose 0.2% in January, just under the 0.3% expected by analysts. The core rate that excludes volatile food and energy prices held at 0.2%, in line with expectations

Americans’ cost of living rises 0.2% in January, driven higher by the first increase in energy prices in four months, according to Labor Department data.

The USD should continue to be strong against the GBP, as worries about growth and unemployment continue while the UK is implementing their austerity program.

 

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD		Singaporean Trade Balance	1.26B				7.61B
EUR		German PPI (MoM)	0.6%		0.2%		-0.4%
EUR		Current Account	2.0B		2.3B		-0.9B
GBP		Retail Sales (MoM)	0.9%		-0.2%		0.6%
BRL		Brazilian Unemployment Rate	5.5%		5.4%		4.7%
CAD		Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.1%		-0.5%
CAD		CPI (MoM)	0.4%		0.3%		-0.6%
USD		Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.3%		0.1%
USD		CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.3%		0.0%
CAD		Leading Indicators (MoM)	0.7%		0.6%		0.7%

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

 

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis for February 20, 2012

The EUR/GBP pair was virtually unchanged at the end of the session on Friday. This doesn’t mean that it didn’t move, and in fact it had spent half of its time above the close, and the other half below. The doji that was formed shows that the 0.83 level looks to continue to offer support at the moment. However, the trend is down, and one would have to think that the trend will return. A break below the bottom of the range on Friday would signal another attempt to fall, and we are willing to sell into that move. Buying isn’t a concern until we are above the 0.85 resistance area.

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis for February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

Feb. 20 00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The pair EUR/GBP  is currently 0.8321 up 0.0011.

The increased risk appetite is returning to the markets, after the ECB announced a bond swap with Greece and Merkel and Monti noted that there could be a deal as soon as Monday, but we have all heard this before.

Euro-zone construction output edged up for the second month running in December, but that wasn’t enough to stop a contraction in the fourth quarter overall. The European Union’s statistics agency said overall construction output in the 17 countries that use the euro rose.

Banks’ emergency overnight borrowing from the European Central Bank fell further Thursday, illustrating the reduced market tensions since the ECB flooded the banking system with liquidity via its first three-year loan operation

Swedish economic growth in 2012 will probably be much lower than the government’s 1.3% forecast last autumn, Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg told reporters Friday. “The Riksbank and the commercial banks expect growth of around half a percent.

Retail sales in the U.K. rose unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Friday.

Tensions are still high in the eurozone between Greece, Athens and Brussels.

 

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD		Singaporean Trade Balance	1.26B				7.61B
EUR		German PPI (MoM)	0.6%		0.2%		-0.4%
EUR		Current Account	2.0B		2.3B		-0.9B
GBP		Retail Sales (MoM)	0.9%		-0.2%		0.6%
BRL		Brazilian Unemployment Rate	5.5%		5.4%		4.7%
CAD		Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.1%		-0.5%
CAD		CPI (MoM)	0.4%		0.3%		-0.6%
USD		Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.3%		0.1%
USD		CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.3%		0.0%
CAD		Leading Indicators (MoM)	0.7%		0.6%		0.7%

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

 

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for February 20, 2012

USD/CHF fell for most of the session as the Franc gained a bit in general during the European and Asian sessions. The 0.91 level is just below, and the support showed up in the form of a hammer on this daily chart. The pair is currently be supported by proxy as the Swiss National Bank is protecting a floor at 1.20 in the EUR/CHF pair. The bank could intervene in that market, and that would certainly make this one rise. Because of this, selling isn’t possible as nobody wants to be on the wrong side of that trade. Buying can be done the closer we get to the 0.91 level. 

USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis for February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

Feb. 20 00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF trading at 0.9184 after opening at 0.9193

The USD dropped today as investors sought riskier assets. After more optimism set in due to comments from Merkel and Monti in regards to Greece and the ECB bond swap which investors took as a good sign of progress.

The US economy is expected to continue strengthening, possibly picking up this spring and summer, the Conference Board said Friday as it reported that its index of leading economic indicators grew 0.4% in January, led by the interest-rate spread and manufacturing hours.

The underlying rate of U.S. inflation accelerated by the fastest pace in four months in January, the Labor Department said Friday. The consumer price index increased 0.2%, driven by the first increase in gasoline prices since September. Food prices rose 0.2 % for the second straight month. The core CPI index, excluding food and energy costs, was up 0.2% in January. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.3% in January after remaining flat in the prior month. The core rate was expected to rise 0.2% after rising 0.1% in the previous month.

The government’s consumer price index rose 0.2% in January, just under the 0.3% expected by analysts. The core rate that excludes volatile food and energy prices held at 0.2%, in line with expectations.

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD		Singaporean Trade Balance	1.26B				7.61B
EUR		German PPI (MoM)	0.6%		0.2%		-0.4%
EUR		Current Account	2.0B		2.3B		-0.9B
GBP		Retail Sales (MoM)	0.9%		-0.2%		0.6%
BRL		Brazilian Unemployment Rate	5.5%		5.4%		4.7%
CAD		Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.1%		-0.5%
CAD		CPI (MoM)	0.4%		0.3%		-0.6%
USD		Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.3%		0.1%
USD		CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.3%		0.0%
CAD		Leading Indicators (MoM)	0.7%		0.6%		0.7%

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for February 20, 2012

EUR/CHF rose during the Friday session as traders bought the Euro in general. The Franc cannot be bought regardless, as the Swiss National Bank has a well-known floor in this pair at the 1.20 level. The area is just below, so any selling would be limited in its opportunity anyway. This makes the EUR/CHF pair a “buy only” one at the moment.

However, until the Euro is a currency that can be bought for the longer-term, it is hard to think that the pair will rise too far as the situation in Europe should continue to weigh upon the common currency. With this in mind, we buy this pair only, and look to do it closer to the 1.20 level.

EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis for February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

Feb. 20 00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

 

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendations:

EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2081 up 0.0010

The euro has been making moves today, as more positive news made the press today over Greece. Chancellor Merkel signaled there could be a deal as early as Monday and the markets viewed the ECB bond swap positively. Pushing the euro up all day.

Euro-zone construction output edged up for the second month running in December, but that wasn’t enough to stop a contraction in the fourth quarter overall. The European Union’s statistics agency said overall construction output in the 17 countries that use the euro rose.

Banks’ emergency overnight borrowing from the European Central Bank fell further Thursday, illustrating the reduced market tensions since the ECB flooded the banking system with liquidity via its first three-year loan operation

Swedish economic growth in 2012 will probably be much lower than the government’s 1.3% forecast last autumn, Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg told reporters Friday. “The Riksbank and the commercial banks expect growth of around half a percent

 

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD		Singaporean Trade Balance	1.26B				7.61B
EUR		German PPI (MoM)	0.6%		0.2%		-0.4%
EUR		Current Account	2.0B		2.3B		-0.9B
GBP		Retail Sales (MoM)	0.9%		-0.2%		0.6%
BRL		Brazilian Unemployment Rate	5.5%		5.4%		4.7%
CAD		Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.1%		-0.5%
CAD		CPI (MoM)	0.4%		0.3%		-0.6%
USD		Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.3%		0.1%
USD		CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.3%		0.0%
CAD		Leading Indicators (MoM)	0.7%		0.6%		0.7%

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis for February 20, 2012

AUD/USD fell after initially rising during the Friday session as the 1.08 level has held as resistance yet again. The level seems to be extremely durable, and one simply cannot help but feel that a pullback could be coming. The level could see continued weakness, but a longer-term fall isn’t in the cards until we get sub-1.04 at least.

The 1.05 level should also be supportive, and even the 1.06 could be. The levels are buying points on hammers and nice long green candles as well. We look at this potential fall as a buying opportunity more than a serious fall in the works. We are buying the pullbacks at handles that produce supportive candles.

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

US Markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 19 21:45     NZD      PPI Input (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

21:45     NZD      PPI Output (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Output measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers.

 Feb. 20  00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

 

Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )

AUD/USD was trading at 1.0779 up .023% The Australian dollar is almost one US cent higher after strong American economic data and positive sentiment in Europe caused a global rally in equities and risk currencies.

At mid day, the Australian dollar was trading at 107.54 US cents, up from 106.68 cents on Thursday.

The number of U.S. workers making new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly four years. 

The government reporting initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 last week, the lowest since March 2008.

Other reports had housing starts up 1.5% last month, while wholesale prices climbing 0.1% in January.

Reports just received say that the ECB will exchange their currently existing old Greek bonds for new ones to avoid any legislative action issued by the Greek government to force bondholders to take a settlement.

 

Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual

	GBP		Nationwide Consumer Confidence	47		40		38
	AUD		Employment Change	46.3K		10.9K		-35.6K
	AUD		Unemployment Rate	5.1%		5.3%		5.2%
	SEK		Swedish CPI (YoY)	1.9%		1.9%		2.3%
	SEK		Swedish Interest Rate Decision	1.50%		1.50%		1.75%
	EUR		ECB Monthly Report
	USD		Building Permits	0.68M		0.68M		0.67M
	USD		Core PPI (MoM)	0.4%		0.1%		0.3%
	CAD		Foreign Securities Purchases	7.38B		7.98B		14.64B
	USD		Housing Starts	0.70M		0.68M		0.69M
	CAD		Manufacturing Sales (MoM)	0.60%		0.50%		1.90%
	USD		PPI (MoM)	0.1%		0.3%		-0.1%
	USD		Initial Jobless Claims	348K		364K		361K
	USD		Continuing Jobless Claims	3426K		3550K		3526K
	USD		Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
	MXN		Mexican GDP (YoY)	3.7%		3.9%		4.5%
	USD		Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	10.2		8.4		7.3

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis for February 20, 2012

The USD/CAD pair fell during the session on Friday, but managed a bounce towards the end of the day to form a hammer. The candle isn’t all that impressive as it simply is in the middle of a consolidation area. The 0.99 level below should offer plenty of support, and if it doesn’t – the 0.98, 0.97, and 0.9750 should. This creates a problem with going short in this pair as there are simply far too many places where buyers could emerge going forward. Buying isn’t possible until we clear the 1.01 resistance level either. Because of this – we are flat in this pair and expect nothing but choppiness going forward.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis for February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

US markets closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 20 00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is currently trading 0.9958 down from this mornings opening of 0.9967. Traders are optimistic and moving to more risky assets as news from Greece of a possible agreement. Moves by the ECB on a new bond old bond swap, lifted the spirits of investors along with comments by Merkel and Monti that a deal might be in place by Monday. Monday will be a quiet day as the US markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

The  US economy is expected to continue strengthening, possibly picking up this spring and summer, the Conference Board said Friday as it detailed  its index of leading economic indicators grew 0.4% in January, led by the interest-rate spread and manufacturing hours.

The underlying rate of U.S. inflation accelerated by the fastest pace in four months in January, the Labor Department said Friday. The consumer price index increased 0.2%, pushed by the first increase in gasoline prices since September. Food prices rose 0.2 % for the second straight month. The core CPI index, excluding food and energy costs, was up 0.2% in January. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.3% in January after remaining flat in the prior month. The core rate was expected to rise 0.2% after rising 0.1% in the previous month.

The government’s consumer price index rose 0.2

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD		Singaporean Trade Balance	1.26B				7.61B
EUR		German PPI (MoM)	0.6%		0.2%		-0.4%
EUR		Current Account	2.0B		2.3B		-0.9B
GBP		Retail Sales (MoM)	0.9%		-0.2%		0.6%
BRL		Brazilian Unemployment Rate	5.5%		5.4%		4.7%
CAD		Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.1%		-0.5%
CAD		CPI (MoM)	0.4%		0.3%		-0.6%
USD		Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.3%		0.1%
USD		CPI (MoM)	0.2%		0.3%		0.0%
CAD		Leading Indicators (MoM)	0.7%		0.6%		0.7%

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis for February 20, 2012

The NZD/USD pair had a bearish day on Friday as the markets sold off risk in the later hours due to the three day weekend in America. The levels that the Kiwi finds itself at are an area that has produced a flat market and looks as if the market is trying to decide if it wants to rise or fall. The 0.8350 level looks to be the fulcrum in the move, and it is that area we must pay attention to. The market does looks like a pullback would be coming, and this would be healthy. However, as long as we are above 0.80, we are willing to buy these pullbacks on signs of support, especially around the 0.82 level.

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

US Markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 19 21:45     NZD      PPI Input (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

21:45     NZD      PPI Output (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Output measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers.

 Feb. 20  00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendation: (Close of  the Asian session )

NZD/USD is trading at 0.8365 up from the opening of 0.8330. The pair moved on worries about Greece and then improved market sentiment.

In the US economic data showed an improvement. The number of U.S. workers making new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly four years. 

The government reporting initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 last week, the lowest since March 2008.

Other reports had housing starts up 1.5% last month, while wholesale prices climbing 0.1% in January.

The pair should stay within a tight range but will react to government jobs data due out in the morning in New Zealand.

 

 

Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual

	GBP		Nationwide Consumer Confidence	47		40		38
	AUD		Employment Change	46.3K		10.9K		-35.6K
	AUD		Unemployment Rate	5.1%		5.3%		5.2%
	SEK		Swedish CPI (YoY)	1.9%		1.9%		2.3%
	SEK		Swedish Interest Rate Decision	1.50%		1.50%		1.75%
	EUR		ECB Monthly Report
	USD		Building Permits	0.68M		0.68M		0.67M
	USD		Core PPI (MoM)	0.4%		0.1%		0.3%
	CAD		Foreign Securities Purchases	7.38B		7.98B		14.64B
	USD		Housing Starts	0.70M		0.68M		0.69M
	CAD		Manufacturing Sales (MoM)	0.60%		0.50%		1.90%
	USD		PPI (MoM)	0.1%		0.3%		-0.1%
	USD		Initial Jobless Claims	348K		364K		361K
	USD		Continuing Jobless Claims	3426K		3550K		3526K
	USD		Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
	MXN		Mexican GDP (YoY)	3.7%		3.9%		4.5%
	USD		Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	10.2		8.4		7.3

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP