Soybeans closed lower on Monday in the Jan contract down 1 ¼ cents but well off the lows of the day. Traders say there was an active corn / soybean spread activity Monday which caused early support for corn and weakness in beans. The soybean complex has been trading sideways to lower in the last couple of weeks in general and traders say this is due to a lack of buying mainly by China. Indications are that China is done for the near term after huge purchases over the last several weeks. Traders say the focus will now center around South American weather, mainly problems with dryness in Argentina. Weekly inspections were 22,564 mil. bu. down 32% from last week and below analysts estimates of 30 to 40 mil bu. Volume on Monday was good, 131,587 Soybeans, 64,456 Oil and 63,492 Meal traded. Funds were net sellers of an estimated 1,000 Soybeans, 3,000 Oil and 1,000 Meal.
Early Opening calls are higher. A Consortium of Isreali private buyers reportedly purchased 14,000 MT of US Soymeal to be shipped between March 15th. to April 10th. Reports show the US is benefiting from high ocean shipping costs which are making Argentine supplies more expensive. Argentine bids were received in the tender but the shipping costs were too expensive. The Baltic Exchange Dry freight index posted a record high last month and expanding economies of China and India are expected to keep freight rates high. Planting of Brazil's 2007/08 Soybean crop is 87% complete Private analyst Celeres reported yesterday. This is up 72% from a week ago. Planting was 89% this time last year. No.1 Soybean producing state Mato Grosso has finished planting its crop reporting 100% planted vs. 98% at this time last year. Brazil's crop is expected to be smaller than previously reported but higher than last year, up about 1%. Indonesian firm Agricultural firm PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia said it expects its Soymeal imports to rise 800,000 mt. in 2008 due to increasing poultry feed demand. They plan to expand their poultry due to improving demand as they report the end of the bird flu scare. Overnight Chinese Soybean Futures closed mixed, Mea and Oil lower. Malaysian Palm oil futures closed lower.
Early Opening calls: Beans 2 to 4 cents higher, Meal $1.00 to $2.00 higher. Oil .20 to .40 higher.
Top News
-- Crop forecaster, Celeres, latest estimate of 07/08 Brazil Soy crop is 62.27 mln mt down from November's 63.1 mln mt, they say slightly smaller planted area due to late rains & delayed start is the cause for the revision
-- Dalian Soybean futures active Sept futures rose 30 yuan in overnight trade to 4301 y/mt; May Soymeal futures fell 12 yuan to 3219 yuan/mt with nearly 300,000 contracts trade, May soyoil futures rose 78 yuan to 9390 y/mt
-- Malaysian Palm Feb Malaysian palm oil futures were $11.07 lower to $864.45/mt in overnight trade
-- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 96,069; Pit Vol. 31,548; Open Interest Change: -629
-- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Normal to Below Temps. Normal to Above Precip. Most of the Corn belt will be dry today except for some light snow in the far north. Dry Wednesday.
-- Outside markets. Energy Energy -.31 at 89$; Gold & Silver: +8.6 at 797$ & +.25 at 14.26$; US $ lower vs. Yen, Sharply lower vs. Euro
Cash Markets
-- CIF Soybeans steady . Dec. +40 to +43, Jan. +50 to +54, Feb. +38 to +44, Mar. +36 to +44, Apr. +36 to +40, May +35 to
+40, J/J +39 to +43.
Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn group, inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. this material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss
