EUR/USD Technical Analysis for February 17, 2012
EUR/USD rose during the session on Thursday as the market found the 1.30 level as being overly supportive. The pair had been bearish for much of the session, but as if on cue – the market suddenly found good news when it needed it the most. This has been the pattern lately, and it makes one wonder at times…
However, the news that the European Central Bank was willing to swap out short-dated Greek bonds for longer-dated ones got the markets running into risk related assets. The story isn’t’ confirmed at the moment, and is only a rumor. Because of this, it will only take one comment to crush the bullish move in our opinion.
The hammer formed for the day does suggest that there is more to come from the bulls, but the recent action seems to suggest that the 1.3250 level will be resistive and could keep a lid on the markets. The 100 day EMA is sitting just above that level, and it is the 38.2% Fibonacci level from the massive drop that we saw back in November. With all of this in mind, the area should continue to fight the bulls.
The pair did have an impressive day, and because of this it appears that the headlines are still what is going to be driving this market overall. The news flow out of Europe will continue to throw the markets around, and this pair will be by far the one most affected. The Euro is a difficult currency to own at the moment, but it is as if many traders simply don’t know there are other pairs to trade. There is a serious focus on this pair at the moment, and as such it will continue to be whippy at best. Sudden moves will be the norm as the headlines keep coming out.
The pair looks consolidative to us, and we are willing to avoid it, but the range will be respected. Until we get a daily close sub-1.29, we aren’t selling. The breaking of the 1.3250 level on a daily close would have us buying.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 17, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
09:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2% 0.6%
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity
13:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.1%
13:30 USD CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.0%
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 17, 2012, Forecast Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.3109, after falling below the 1.30 line to hit a low of 1.2974 the euro has pushed back up to make up lost ground. Earlier in the day investors were in sell mode, worried about Greece, as they have for months on end. As doomsday nears and rumors fly, the EU and ECB are again inventing new ways to save Greece from a default, this time there are rumors that the ECB will swap the bonds they own for new Greek bonds on Monday, in a complicated, non transparent, non accepted transaction. Again, the bankers and politicians are trying to buy time, in the hopes that all this will just go away.
In the US today, data reported that the number of U.S. workers making new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly four years.
The government reporting initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 last week, the lowest since March 2008.
Other reports had housing starts up 1.5% last month, while wholesale prices climbing 0.1% in January.
Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual
|
GBP |
Nationwide Consumer Confidence |
47 |
40 |
38 |
||||||
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
46.3K |
10.9K |
-35.6K |
||||||
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
||||||
|
SEK |
Swedish CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
2.3% |
||||||
|
SEK |
Swedish Interest Rate Decision |
1.50% |
1.50% |
1.75% |
||||||
|
EUR |
ECB Monthly Report |
|||||||||
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.68M |
0.68M |
0.67M |
||||||
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
||||||
|
CAD |
Foreign Securities Purchases |
7.38B |
7.98B |
14.64B |
||||||
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.70M |
0.68M |
0.69M |
||||||
|
CAD |
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
0.60% |
0.50% |
1.90% |
||||||
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
||||||
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
348K |
364K |
361K |
||||||
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3426K |
3550K |
3526K |
||||||
|
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|||||||||
|
MXN |
Mexican GDP (YoY) |
3.7% |
3.9% |
4.5% |
||||||
|
USD |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
10.2 |
8.4 |
7.3 |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
USD/JPY Technical Analysis for February 17, 2012
USD/JPY rose again on Thursday as the US jobless claims number came out at the lowest level in 4 years. The pair is massively beat down over the last few years, but the truth is that the 80 level looms large above this recent surge. The move has been parabolic, but the reality is that 80 will be the real test for this pair going forward. Because of this, we are willing to step back and wait to see what happens when the market reaches the level.
A daily close above it would have us going into buy and hold mode, but to be honest – this is probably not going to be very likely at this point in time. The move simply has been too strong and rapid to break through the massive area on the first attempt it seems, and the “risk off” appeal of shorting this pair should continue. With this in mind, we are waiting for 80.
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis for February 17, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT) Feb 16th
13:30 USD Building Permits 0.68M 0.67M
Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.
13:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.3%
13:30 USD PPI (MoM) 0.3% -0.1%
The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
13:30 USD Housing Starts 0.68M 0.66M
Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 364K 358K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3550K 3515K
Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
14:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speaky on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions, in Washington DC
15:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 8.4 7.3
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis February 17, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )
USD/JPY was trading at 78.43 opening at 78.44. The movement between these two were again on rumors, news and worries over Greece. Huge amounts of economic data did not interfere or excite these today. The BoJ comments of the previous day were long forgotten, but the pair bounced up and down, to wind down the day just where it started.
Thursday Economic Data ( asian session )
|
AUD |
MI Inflation Expectations |
2.5% |
2.8% |
||||||
|
GBP |
Nationwide Consumer Confidence |
47 |
40 |
38 |
|||||
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
46.3K |
10.9K |
-35.6K |
|||||
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
|||||
Wednesday Economic Data actual v. forecast
|
AUD |
New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) |
1.3% |
-2.7% |
||||||
|
KRW |
South Korean Trade Balance |
-2.03B |
-1.96B |
||||||
|
JPY |
BoJ Monthly Report |
||||||||
|
SGD |
Singaporean Retail Sales (YoY) |
4.2% |
7.0% |
6.2% |
|||||
|
EUR |
French GDP (QoQ) |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
0.3% |
|||||
|
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
0.6% |
|||||
|
EUR |
Spanish CPI (YoY) |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.4% |
|||||
|
SEK |
Swedish GDP (QoQ) |
3.4% |
2.1% |
3.0% |
|||||
|
HUF |
Hungarian GDP (YoY) |
1.4% |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|||||
|
CZK |
Czech GDP (QoQ) |
0.5% |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|||||
|
EUR |
Austrian GDP (YoY) |
1.2% |
2.5% |
||||||
|
EUR |
Netherlands GDP (YoY) |
-0.7% |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|||||
|
EUR |
Italian GDP (QoQ) |
-0.7% |
-0.6% |
-0.2% |
|||||
|
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
2.0% |
1.8% |
2.0% |
|||||
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
6.9K |
3.2K |
1.9K |
|||||
|
GBP |
Unemployment Rate |
8.4% |
8.4% |
8.4% |
|||||
|
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
|||||
|
EUR |
Trade Balance |
7.5B |
4.7B |
6.1B |
|||||
|
CHF |
ZEW Expectations |
-21.2 |
-50.1 |
||||||
|
MYR |
Malaysian GDP (YoY) |
5.2% |
4.5% |
5.8% |
|||||
|
GBP |
BoE Inflation Report |
||||||||
|
GBP |
BoE Gov King Speaks |
||||||||
|
USD |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
-1.0% |
7.5% |
||||||
|
PLN |
Polish CPI (YoY) |
4.1% |
4.3% |
4.6% |
|||||
|
USD |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
19.5 |
14.2 |
13.5 |
|||||
|
USD |
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
17.9B |
62.3B |
61.3B |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17
Feb 16 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Feb 16 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt
Feb 16 10:50 France BTA/OATi auction
Feb 16 16:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb
22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23
Feb 16 18:00 US Auctions 30Y TIPS
GBP/USD Technical Analysis for February 17, 2012
GBP/USD rose during the session on Thursday, and acted like it was shot out of a cannon. The pair has recently pulled back, but the bullish action for the session will have many of the bears running. The 1.58 area is where we are approaching at the end of the day, and it could be a place in which we could see serious resistance. However, it must be noted that the candle is closing at the very top, and this is almost always a sign that the surge could continue.
The pair continues to react to headlines out of Europe, and the ECB announcing that it was going to swap bonds with the Greeks over the weekend got the markets full of hopium again. The pair of course reacted very violently, but the fact that we are now in the middle of the resistance area, and the sudden move up combined with that has us wondering if this is just yet another spike in a violent marketplace.
The pair will be difficult to buy at this point as the resistance seems to be strong all the way up to 1.60 or so. The area has sent the market lower before, so being careful is probably the way to go at this point in time. As a result – we are not willing to buy into this resistance.
The area would however, make a really good spot to sell from as the market will probably come to grips with the idea that the reaction was a bit overdone. The situation in Europe is far from being over, and it will only take a short amount of time before the markets realize that this is so. The problems in Europe are very complex, and it seems that every time we get a bit of good news, the market s will then focus on the next fire to put out. This is the way it has been for months, and will more than likely continue to be so.
The selling of this pair is what we feel is the correct way to go, but it might be a day or two before we get the weak candle that we are looking for. The Dollar is bought every time there is bad news, which seems to be about every 2 – 3 days.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 17, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
09:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2% 0.6%
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity
13:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.1%
13:30 USD CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.0%
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis February 17, 2012, Forecast Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD is currently up trading at 1.5794 the Sterling extended gains against the U.S. dollar on as a flurry of upbeat U.S. economic data supported market sentiment although concerns over Greece’s second bailout package persisted. While rumors were flying along with accusations. Tensions continued to mount between Berlin and Athens and rumors of a move by the ECB on a Greek Bond Swap, kept investors and the markets jumping.
UK House prices rise 1.1% last month, fall 1% on the year in January
In the US today, data reported that the number of U.S. workers making new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly four years.
The government reporting initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 last week, the lowest since March 2008.
Other reports had housing starts up 1.5% last month, while wholesale prices climbing 0.1% in January.
Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual
|
GBP |
Nationwide Consumer Confidence |
47 |
40 |
38 |
||||||
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
46.3K |
10.9K |
-35.6K |
||||||
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
||||||
|
SEK |
Swedish CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
2.3% |
||||||
|
SEK |
Swedish Interest Rate Decision |
1.50% |
1.50% |
1.75% |
||||||
|
EUR |
ECB Monthly Report |
|||||||||
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.68M |
0.68M |
0.67M |
||||||
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
||||||
|
CAD |
Foreign Securities Purchases |
7.38B |
7.98B |
14.64B |
||||||
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.70M |
0.68M |
0.69M |
||||||
|
CAD |
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
0.60% |
0.50% |
1.90% |
||||||
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
||||||
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
348K |
364K |
361K |
||||||
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3426K |
3550K |
3526K |
||||||
|
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|||||||||
|
MXN |
Mexican GDP (YoY) |
3.7% |
3.9% |
4.5% |
||||||
|
USD |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
10.2 |
8.4 |
7.3 |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis for February 17, 2012
EUR/GBP had a bearish attitude for most of the Thursday session. The market fell as the “risk off” attitude about Europe came back into play. However, the 0.83 level has held as support and it looks by the hammer being printed for the session that the market wants to consolidate again. The 0.84 level above should continue to fight the bulls, and the 0.83 level looks as if it is trying to become serious support. Because of this, we see a very tight range going forward, and would think of this market as a scalping market. The selling of this pair at the 0.84 is by far our favorite trade, but a break of the Thursday highs could have us buying it for a very short-term move.
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis for February 17, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
09:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2% 0.6%
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
13:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.1%
13:30 USD CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.0%
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis February 17, 2012, Forecast Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP pair is currently at 0.8298 after opening at the high of .08326.
The euro declined all day dropping to new lows, as worried over Greece continued to pound the markets.
In late trading the euro picked up steam on rumors of a proposed bond swap by the ECB whereby they would trade their current bonds in for new greek bonds, the rumors indicate this could be done as soon as Monday.
In the UK data showed house prices rose 1.1% last month, fall 1% on the year in January
Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual
|
GBP |
Nationwide Consumer Confidence |
47 |
40 |
38 |
||||||
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
46.3K |
10.9K |
-35.6K |
||||||
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
||||||
|
SEK |
Swedish CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
2.3% |
||||||
|
SEK |
Swedish Interest Rate Decision |
1.50% |
1.50% |
1.75% |
||||||
|
EUR |
ECB Monthly Report |
|||||||||
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.68M |
0.68M |
0.67M |
||||||
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
||||||
|
CAD |
Foreign Securities Purchases |
7.38B |
7.98B |
14.64B |
||||||
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.70M |
0.68M |
0.69M |
||||||
|
CAD |
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
0.60% |
0.50% |
1.90% |
||||||
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
||||||
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
348K |
364K |
361K |
||||||
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3426K |
3550K |
3526K |
||||||
|
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|||||||||
|
MXN |
Mexican GDP (YoY) |
3.7% |
3.9% |
4.5% |
||||||
|
USD |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
10.2 |
8.4 |
7.3 |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
USD/CHF Technical Analysis for February 17, 2012
USD/CHF fell during the Thursday session as the markets reversed course when it was announced the ECB could be swapping their shorter term debt bought in Greece for longer dated ones. The move hasn’t been confirmed yet, but the markets traded as if the news was true.
The pair initially rose over the top of the resistance area at 0.9250 level, but fell back down into the previous consolidation area. The pair is still supported by the Swiss National Bank indirectly via the EUR/CHF, and as such – we don’t buy the Franc. With this in mind, we look for support at 0.91 in which to buy.
USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis for February 17, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
09:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2% 0.6%
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
13:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.1%
13:30 USD CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.0%
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CHF trading at 0.9213 after pushing up to 0.9300 on strenght of the USD. The greenback was a risk aversion move today, as worries over Greece escalated. This pair followed all of its cousins up and down on the strength and weakness of the USD. Tension, rumor, inudendo and accusations surfaced today, played out between Greece and Berlin. While Brussels was exaperted and tired, Berlin hurled comments and accusations at Athens. Nerves are frayed everywhere, not just investors, bankers, financiers, politicans and lawmakers. The latest rumor is that the ECB is going to do some sort of an elaborate bond swap of old and new Greek bonds. This rumor has given life back to the euro in late trading. There has been no official comment.
Across the Atlantic positive economic reports were good news in the US.
The number of U.S. workers making new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly four years.
data that had the government reporting initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 last week, the lowest since March 2008.
Other reports had housing starts up 1.5% last month, while wholesale prices climbing 0.1% in January.
USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 17, 2012, Forecast
Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual
|
GBP |
Nationwide Consumer Confidence |
47 |
40 |
38 |
||||||
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
46.3K |
10.9K |
-35.6K |
||||||
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
||||||
|
SEK |
Swedish CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
2.3% |
||||||
|
SEK |
Swedish Interest Rate Decision |
1.50% |
1.50% |
1.75% |
||||||
|
EUR |
ECB Monthly Report |
|||||||||
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.68M |
0.68M |
0.67M |
||||||
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
||||||
|
CAD |
Foreign Securities Purchases |
7.38B |
7.98B |
14.64B |
||||||
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.70M |
0.68M |
0.69M |
||||||
|
CAD |
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
0.60% |
0.50% |
1.90% |
||||||
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
||||||
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
348K |
364K |
361K |
||||||
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3426K |
3550K |
3526K |
||||||
|
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|||||||||
|
MXN |
Mexican GDP (YoY) |
3.7% |
3.9% |
4.5% |
||||||
|
USD |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
10.2 |
8.4 |
7.3 |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for February 17, 2012
EUR/CHF had an interesting day as the market went absolutely nowhere on Thursday. The announcement of the ECB swapping out short-term dated bonds for long-term ones in Greece got people buying the Euro, but not in this market. Because of this, we feel that the Euro will continue to struggle going forward as it cannot gain any real ground against the Franc. However, there is a “line in the sand” at 1.20, and the Swiss area willing to intervene at that level. Because of this, we buy, but closer to 1.20 as it is a natural spot to do so.
EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis for February 17, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
09:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2% 0.6%
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
13:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.1%
13:30 USD CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.0%
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 17, 2012, Forecast Analysis and Recommendations:
EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2073 opening at 1.2068. This pair followed all of its cousins up and down on the strength and weakness of the euro, all being moved my investors worries over Greece. Tension, rumor, inudendo and accusations surfaced today, played out between Greece and Berlin. While Brussels was exaperted and tired, Berlin hurled comments and accusations at Athens. Nerves are frayed everywhere, not just investors, bankers, financiers, politicans and lawmakers. The latest rumor is that the ECB is going to do some sort of an elaborate bond swap of old and new Greek bonds. This rumor has given life back to the euro in late trading. There has been no official comment.
Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual
|
GBP |
Nationwide Consumer Confidence |
47 |
40 |
38 |
||||||
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
46.3K |
10.9K |
-35.6K |
||||||
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
||||||
|
SEK |
Swedish CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
2.3% |
||||||
|
SEK |
Swedish Interest Rate Decision |
1.50% |
1.50% |
1.75% |
||||||
|
EUR |
ECB Monthly Report |
|||||||||
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.68M |
0.68M |
0.67M |
||||||
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
||||||
|
CAD |
Foreign Securities Purchases |
7.38B |
7.98B |
14.64B |
||||||
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.70M |
0.68M |
0.69M |
||||||
|
CAD |
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
0.60% |
0.50% |
1.90% |
||||||
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
||||||
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
348K |
364K |
361K |
||||||
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3426K |
3550K |
3526K |
||||||
|
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|||||||||
|
MXN |
Mexican GDP (YoY) |
3.7% |
3.9% |
4.5% |
||||||
|
USD |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
10.2 |
8.4 |
7.3 |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
AUD/USD Technical Analysis for February 17, 2012
AUD/USD rose during the session with all of the other risk related currency pairs as the ECB announced it would be swapping Greek bonds it owns for longer dated ones over the weekend. This helps the process along with the Greek debt markets, and this is seen as bullish by the market overall.
The pair has recently found support at the 1.0650 area, and it looks like we are going to reenter consolidation at the current level. The pair has a lot of resistance t the 1.08 level, but the market is decidedly bullish, so a breakout isn’t a surprise if it happens. The triangle that we were following a while back broke out at 1.04, and measured a move to 1.12 or so. It appears that sooner or later – it might actually happen. A daily close above the 1.0830 level has us long again. Selling isn’t a thought until sub-1.04 or so.
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 17, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT) Feb 16th
13:30 USD Building Permits 0.68M 0.67M
Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.
13:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.3%
13:30 USD PPI (MoM) 0.3% -0.1%
The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
13:30 USD Housing Starts 0.68M 0.66M
Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 364K 358K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3550K 3515K
Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
14:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speaky on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions, in Washington DC
15:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 8.4 7.3
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.
Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )
AUD/USD was trading at 106.61, falling from a high in earlier trading of 1.0793. The Aussie was strong today on economic data out on unemployment dropping to 5.1% and the employment change surged above forecasts. It was all positive news down under today. More worries about Greece, began pushing to greenback higher towards the end of the session, seeing the AUD lose the battle
Thursday Economic Data ( asian session )
|
AUD |
MI Inflation Expectations |
2.5% |
2.8% |
||||||
|
GBP |
Nationwide Consumer Confidence |
47 |
40 |
38 |
|||||
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
46.3K |
10.9K |
-35.6K |
|||||
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
|||||
Wednesday Economic Data actual v. forecast
|
AUD |
New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) |
1.3% |
-2.7% |
||||||
|
KRW |
South Korean Trade Balance |
-2.03B |
-1.96B |
||||||
|
JPY |
BoJ Monthly Report |
||||||||
|
SGD |
Singaporean Retail Sales (YoY) |
4.2% |
7.0% |
6.2% |
|||||
|
EUR |
French GDP (QoQ) |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
0.3% |
|||||
|
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
0.6% |
|||||
|
EUR |
Spanish CPI (YoY) |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.4% |
|||||
|
SEK |
Swedish GDP (QoQ) |
3.4% |
2.1% |
3.0% |
|||||
|
HUF |
Hungarian GDP (YoY) |
1.4% |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|||||
|
CZK |
Czech GDP (QoQ) |
0.5% |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|||||
|
EUR |
Austrian GDP (YoY) |
1.2% |
2.5% |
||||||
|
EUR |
Netherlands GDP (YoY) |
-0.7% |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|||||
|
EUR |
Italian GDP (QoQ) |
-0.7% |
-0.6% |
-0.2% |
|||||
|
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
2.0% |
1.8% |
2.0% |
|||||
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
6.9K |
3.2K |
1.9K |
|||||
|
GBP |
Unemployment Rate |
8.4% |
8.4% |
8.4% |
|||||
|
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
|||||
|
EUR |
Trade Balance |
7.5B |
4.7B |
6.1B |
|||||
|
CHF |
ZEW Expectations |
-21.2 |
-50.1 |
||||||
|
MYR |
Malaysian GDP (YoY) |
5.2% |
4.5% |
5.8% |
|||||
|
GBP |
BoE Inflation Report |
||||||||
|
GBP |
BoE Gov King Speaks |
||||||||
|
USD |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
-1.0% |
7.5% |
||||||
|
PLN |
Polish CPI (YoY) |
4.1% |
4.3% |
4.6% |
|||||
|
USD |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
19.5 |
14.2 |
13.5 |
|||||
|
USD |
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
17.9B |
62.3B |
61.3B |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17
Feb 16 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Feb 16 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt
Feb 16 10:50 France BTA/OATi auction
Feb 16 16:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb
22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23
Feb 16 18:00 US Auctions 30Y TIPS
USD/CAD Technical Analysis for February 17, 2012
The USD/CAD pair initially spiked during the session as we started out with a “risk off” attitude. However, if you have been watching our videos, you know that the 1.01 area is a place that we saw significant resistance coming back into the markets, and as a result we haven’t bought this pair.
The pullback looks very strong, but the reality in this pair is that there is significant support all the way down to the 0.9750 level. The pair looks as if the choppiness could continue, and until we break free, we are avoiding trades in this market. A daily close above the 1.01 level has us long, while a sub-0.9750 print on the daily chart has us selling.
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis for February 17, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
09:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2% 0.6%
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity
13:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.1%
13:30 USD CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.0%
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is currently trading 0.9960 down from even money this morning opening at 1.00. The greenback was supported by economic data released today stating the number of U.S. workers making new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly four years.
The government reporting initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 last week, the lowest since March 2008.
Other reports had housing starts up 1.5% last month, while wholesale prices climbing 0.1% in January.
Continued uncertainty over a Greek bailout ahead of a March 20 bond repayment sent European equities lower and dented overall risk sentiment. Later in the day, the dollar lost some strength as rumors about a possible old bond new bond swap by the ECB was in the making.
Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual
|
GBP |
Nationwide Consumer Confidence |
47 |
40 |
38 |
||||||
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
46.3K |
10.9K |
-35.6K |
||||||
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
||||||
|
SEK |
Swedish CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
2.3% |
||||||
|
SEK |
Swedish Interest Rate Decision |
1.50% |
1.50% |
1.75% |
||||||
|
EUR |
ECB Monthly Report |
|||||||||
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.68M |
0.68M |
0.67M |
||||||
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
||||||
|
CAD |
Foreign Securities Purchases |
7.38B |
7.98B |
14.64B |
||||||
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.70M |
0.68M |
0.69M |
||||||
|
CAD |
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
0.60% |
0.50% |
1.90% |
||||||
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
||||||
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
348K |
364K |
361K |
||||||
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3426K |
3550K |
3526K |
||||||
|
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|||||||||
|
MXN |
Mexican GDP (YoY) |
3.7% |
3.9% |
4.5% |
||||||
|
USD |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
10.2 |
8.4 |
7.3 |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
NZD/USD Technical Analysis for February 17, 2012
The NZD/USD pair fell initially on Thursday as the risk off trade continued. However, the middle of the session had word of the European Central Bank getting ready to swap their Greek bonds for longer maturities, and this helped alleviate some of the worries that the markets have had recently. The candle formed for the session was a hammer, and it looks like the bulls are ready to step back in.
The pair printed a shooting star on Wednesday, and as such this looks more like the market going back into the consolidation area in the neighborhood of the 0.8250 level. The pair is a buy once we clear the top of the Wednesday session, and as such we simply have to wait as the uptrend looks very much intact.
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 17, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT) Feb 16th
13:30 USD Building Permits 0.68M 0.67M
Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.
13:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.3%
13:30 USD PPI (MoM) 0.3% -0.1%
The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
13:30 USD Housing Starts 0.68M 0.66M
Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 364K 358K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3550K 3515K
Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
14:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speaky on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions, in Washington DC
15:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 8.4 7.3
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.
Analysis and Recommendation: (Close of the Asian session )
NZD/USD is trading at 0.8268. This pair is basically sleepwalking to the tune of the USD. As worries about Greece increased due to delays, the greenback picked up momentum against all of its trading partners.
Thursday Economic Data ( asian session )
|
AUD |
MI Inflation Expectations |
2.5% |
2.8% |
||||||
|
GBP |
Nationwide Consumer Confidence |
47 |
40 |
38 |
|||||
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
46.3K |
10.9K |
-35.6K |
|||||
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
