An Excerpt from CRB'S Futures Market Service. 

Crude oil prices climbed back above $100 a barrel and posted a 5-week high.  Bullish factors include (1) the unexpected decline in weekly DOE crude supplies (-171,000 bbl versus expectations of a +1.6 million bbl build), (2) concern about the impending European oil embargo on Iranian oil starting July 1 along with Iranian-backed terrorist attacks in India and Georgia, (3) the rally in gasoline to a 5-1/2 month high on concern the closure of several East Coast refineries will limit gasoline supplies as DOE data showed the refiners on the U.S. East Coast processed 903,000 barrels of oil a day in the week ended Feb 3, down from 1.11 million y/y, and (4) concern that the global oil markets are vulnerable to a supply shock as IEA data shows crude inventories held by the 34 nations in the OECD climbed by 11.4 million bbl in Jan, less than the 5-year average increase of 43.2 million.  Bearish factors include (1) the +400,000 bbl increase in weekly DOE gasoline supplies to an 11-1/2 month high of 232.2 million bbl, and (2) weak demand after the SpendingPulse data indicated U.S. drivers bought 8.01 million bbl of gasoline a day in the week ended Feb 10, down -3.1% w/w and the lowest level since data started being collected in July 2004.

Fundamental Outlook—Bullish Consolidation— Crude prices jumped back above $100 a barrel on an unexpected decline in weekly DOE inventories and on carry-over support from a rally in gasoline prices.  Oil prices also remain supported by U.S. economic strength and Iranian tensions, which could yet cause a big upward oil spike.  Medium-term bearish factors include (1) increased OPEC and record Russian crude output, (2) global economic concerns, and (3) the resumption of Libyan production.

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