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Monday Morning Soybean Update


Soybeans surged higher again on Friday gaining an additional 15 cents. For the week Jan Beans gained 22 ½ cents. Better than expected export sales figures released on Friday morning added the initial rally. China Soybean buying helped push weekly sales to a new marketing year high of 66.4 mil. bu taking Year to date sales to 597 mil. bu. vs. 569 mil bu. sold this time last year. Reports show that China has accounted for 70% of these sales. The session was brief due to the Thanksgiving holiday and trading was considered light. 77,892 Soybeans, 48,437 Oil and 40,085 Meal traded on Friday. Funds were fairly good buyers despite the shortened session buying an estimated 4,000 Soybeans, 3,000 Oil and 2,000 Meal.

 Early opening calls are higher. Overnight Soybeans continued the rally from Friday ending the evening session up 11 ½ cents in the January contract. Continued strong cash export sales, weakening US Dollar and rising crude oil prices continue to spur the Bean complex. Soyoil rallied to 33-year high overnight and Soybeans traded to fresh 34 year highs. South American weather will take a bigger role as we go forward into their growing season. Good rains in Northern Brazil over the weekend, but Light rains in Argentina did little to help the dry conditions there. Malaysian crude palm futures extended gains on Monday to a record peak, shrugging off a slight increase in exports and focusing on gains in crude and soyoil markets. Chinese Soybeans traded higher overnight. Weekly CFTC commitment of traders report will be issued after the close today, late due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Early Opening Calls: Soybeans 10 to 15 cents higher, Meal $ 3.00 to $4.00 higher, Oil .20 to .40 higher.

Top News

-- Iran is seeking 20,000 mt of Mayalysian, Indonesian palm olein for Dec-Jan delivery, bidding deadline is unknown.

-- Friday Export Sales Recap:

Soybeans 07/08 Export Sales Net: 1.807 mln mt; 08/09 Net: None mt

Soybean Meal 07/08 Export Sales Net: 133,100 mt; 08/09 Export Sales Net: 1,000 mt

Soybean Oil 07/08 Export Sales Net: 65,200 mt; 08/09 Export Sales Net: None mt

-- Dalian Soybean futures May 60 yuan higher in May, Sept 61 yuan/mt higher; Soymeal +58 yuan/mt to 3478; Soyoil May futures +150 yuan/mt to 9538.

-- Malaysian Palm oil futures set record new high at $915/mt (3,068 ringgit) a rise of 0.8% on the day, following comparable soyoil futures & taking cues from the crude oil markets also.

-- SGS says palm oil product exports fell to 1.107 mln mt in the Nov 1-25 period thats a decline of 0.4% when compared to same period in Oct.

-- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 60,191; Pit Vol. 14,952; Open Interest Change: -3,647

-- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Normal to Below Temps. Above Normal Precip. The Corn Belt will see showers and light snow today. Tuesday looks dry.

-- Outside markets. Energy: crude 14c higher at 98.31/bbl, products 50-100 pts higher ; Gold $5.00 higher at $829.70/oz & Silver: 3.5c higher at $14.76/oz; US $ mixed, lower vs Euro & slightly higher vs Yen

Cash Markets

-- CIF Soybeans off 1 to 5 .LH Nov. +34 to +39, Dec. +36 to +45, Jan. +47 to +52, Feb. +37 to +42, Mar. +37 to +41, Apr. +35 to +40, May +35 to +40, J/J +35 to +40.

 

 

Nathan T. Smith III

Linn Group

nsmith@linngroup.com

toll free: (877) 787-6278

local: (312) 896-2090

fax: (312) 896-2050

 

Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn group, inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. this material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss

 


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About the author



Nate has been a working in the futures markets since 1991 and has been with the Linn Group since 1998.

The Linn Group is a privately held CFTC and NFA registered FCM, specializing in a wide range of clearing services for Introducing Brokers, Commercial Hedgers, CTA's and individual futures traders around the globe.

The Linn Group is headquartered at the Chicago Board of Trade on the 12th floor in the Atrium and is an established financial institution with our major strengths coming from our quality of brokers, analysts, and support staff.

 

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