MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2012)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

                "EMOTION is your enemy more than any market will ever be."

GOAL OF THE MARKET UPDATE: The purpose of my Update is to share with readers what the technical aspects of a market is suggesting.  It is not my personal opinion but merely conveying to readers what market action potentially suggests drawn from my years of experience with the markets and what similar behavior in the past has produced.  I do for you the technical analysis that most of you do not have the time to do personally. 
The Update is also designed to help you learn what to look for in a market technically and to develop good trading habits irrespective of the results of a particular trade. It is also a guide and tool for those who want to compare it with their own work.

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OTHER SERVICES AVAILABLE TO YOU: In addition to my advisory service I also offer brokerage services. My commission rates vary according to the services you want from me.  My clients range from self directed to full service. The Market Update is free to all clients.

MY TRADING APPROACH: I normally enter trades only on buy and sell stops. If the market is not going in the direction of the trade, I am normally not interested and the order is not executed.
I do not enter new positions during the night session but only during the day trading hours. I always use globex and always have a protective stop working - even during the night session.  My computation of trading costs for each trade in the Update includes commission plus an estimate of exchange fees.

TRADE ALERTS:

Buy March swiss franc.  Buy 110.13 stop.  Protective stop 109.27.  Potential projection 112.00.  (Potential risk:  $1075.  Potential reward:  $2337.50).
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly chart formed a key reversal bottom last month - suggesting a trend change from down to up.
2.  On the monthly chart the swiss is back over the 20 day ma.  That is positive.
3.  On the weekly chart the swiss is back overt the 20 day ma.  That is the first time since it failed that average in September.
4.  On the daily chart the swiss closed back over the 100 day ma three days ago and is holding.  That is the first time since it violated it last September.  That is positive.
5.  Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

Sell March mini silver.  Sell 33.595 stop.  Protective stop 34.455.  Potential projection 32.000.  (Potential risk:  $860.  Potential reward:  $1595.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On both the monthly and weekly charts silver is in resistance.
2.  On the daily chart, silver formed a key reversal top yesterday.
3.  On the daily chart silver is in the same resistance area that caused problems last November and a subsequent sell-off.
4.  On the daily chart, silver violated and closed under the uptrend formed since the Dec. 29 low both yesterday and today.  It also violated it on Monday and Tuesday of this week but managed to close back over it.  Closing under it suggests a potential trend change from up to down.
5.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

METALS & ENERGY COMMENTS:

MAR COPPER:  The potential projection to 400.00 that I mentioned last time is close to occurring.  Today's high 398.95.  Copper is over the 20 day ma on the monthly.  That's positive but the month is young, so to speak, and it needs to close out the month above that.  The weekly triggered a buy this week.  If it can get over 400.00, we could be looking at 425.00 copper.  Copper broke out of a pennant on the weekly in early January.  That projection could bring it to at least 415.00.  Closed 397.85, up 6.90.

APRIL GOLD:  It is having real problems with getting over 1750.00.  That is the  same problem area that stopped gold in early December.  It finally gave up and sold off to 1564.60 at that time.  It is trying to hold at the uptrend line formed since the Dec. 29 low.  Closed 1741.20, up 9.90.

MAR MINI SILVER:  Since late January it has been consolidating between 33.000, roughly, and 34.400.  Yesterday is the first time it formed a key reversal top from this level.  That is a red flag.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 33.917, up .213.

APRIL MINI CRUDE OIL:  It triggered a buy yesterday from Tuesday's huge outside day.  It is clearly over the 20 day ma.  That is positive too.  Next resistance is up around 101.70.  Closed 99.10, up .28.

CURRENCIES & FINANCIALS: 

MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN:  It sold off to 128.68 today.  The last two times it has had a sharp sell-off like this on the daily chart, specially, Dec. 19 and Jan. 25, it went right back up the very next day.  It reached the 10 day ma on the monthly today.  That is where it has held during every sell-off since April.  If it doesn't hold possibly the yen is finally making a real top and there will be more follow through tomorrow.  Tossing a coin may give us the answer!  Just watching.  Closed 128.81, down 1.07.

MAR SWISS FRANC:  There are a lot of technical positives in this market.  A trade could developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 109.75, up .16.

MAR DOLLAR INDEX:  I shorted the dollar yesterday.  Today's low 78.430.  Even with jobless claims at a four year low (assuming you can believe the figures) the dollar could not rally today.  Move stops from 79.650 down to 79.410.  Closed 78.652, down .082.
Position:  Short 78.850 (2.8).
Projection:  77.400.

MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY:  On Tuesday it finally rallied over 132.00 after struggling at that resistance for well over a week.  It has held that gain since.  It also formed an outside day today.  Taking out 133.25 tomorrow would be positive.  Move stops from 130.27 up to 130.89.  Closed 132.90, up .37.
Position:  Long 132.22 (2.7).
Projection:  136.00.

MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR:  Two weeks ago if finally got over the 100 day ma on the weekly after failing for over a month.  It has held that gain.  As of last week it got over the 100.00 resistance and is holding that gain so far.  On the monthly chart it is over the 20 day ma again.  Since getting over 100.00 it has started to consolidate again on the daily chart.  It could try for 101.00.  Just watching.  Closed 100.45, up .14.

MAR AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR:  The monthly chart continues to suggest an attempt to reach 110.00.  It triggered a buy last month.  The macd is positive.  Plus the current wave up on the weekly has a projection to that price level.  It is in some resistance around 108.00 currently but the pennant it broke out of on the weekly chart has a higher projection than that.  The one "cliché" is that the current wave up on the daily chart is close to meeting projections.  Closed 107.45, down 1.

MAR E-MINI S&P:  I continue to be interested in buying the emini but would like to see a correction of sorts.  It has resistance at 1354.50.  The current high is 1352.75.  Watching closely.  Closed 1348.25, up 1.25.

MAR 10 YR. NOTES:  The monthly chart is forming a preliminary double top.  That technically suggests a trend change from up to down.  The macd is turning negative too.  But there is conflict.  The monthly has a buy signal as well as the weekly!  The weekly formed a key reversal top last week.  I guess the point I'm making is that there are some potential negatives developing for this market.  Closed 130.250, down .100.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.  Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts.  The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.  Actual results may vary.