MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2012)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

                "EMOTION is your enemy more than any market will ever be."

GOAL OF THE MARKET UPDATE: The purpose of my Update is to share with readers what the technical aspects of a market is suggesting.  It is not my personal opinion but merely conveying to readers what market action potentially suggests drawn from my years of experience with the markets and what similar behavior in the past has produced.  I do for you the technical analysis that most of you do not have the time to do personally. 
The Update is also designed to help you learn what to look for in a market technically and to develop good trading habits irrespective of the results of a particular trade. It is also a guide and tool for those who want to compare it with their own work.

TO RECEIVE THE COMPLETE MARKET UPDATE: Your access to the Update through Internet websites is not the complete Update. It does not include comments on alternate days (Monday, Wednesday & Friday) or not necessarily all the markets followed. To receive the complete Update via email, you may register for it on my website.  I also offer free trading booklets:  http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/.

OTHER SERVICES AVAILABLE TO YOU: In addition to my advisory service I also offer brokerage services. My commission rates vary according to the services you want from me.  My clients range from self directed to full service. The Market Update is free to all clients.

MY TRADING APPROACH: I normally enter trades only on buy and sell stops. If the market is not going in the direction of the trade, I am normally not interested and the order is not executed.
I do not enter new positions during the night session but only during the day trading hours. I always use globex and always have a protective stop working - even during the night session.  My computation of trading costs for each trade in the Update includes commission plus an estimate of exchange fees.

TRADE ALERTS:

Sell March (mini or reg.) corn.  Sell 631 stop.  Protective stop 652 1/2.  Potential projection 585.  (Potential risk:  $1075-reg.  $215-mini.  Potential reward:  $$2300-reg.  $460-mini).
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On both the monthly and weekly charts, corn is starting to sell off from previous resistance.
2.  On the daily chart, corn formed a key reversal top today - suggesting a trend change from up to down.  The last time it did so was in early Nov. at the 675 level.  It then sold off under 600.
3.  The daily macd is turning negative.
4.  On the daily chart a sell signal would push corn back under the 100 day ma.  That would be negative.
5.  On the daily chart a sell would negate a buy triggered today.  Normally when a market does so that quickly, it follows through in the new direction.

GRAIN COMMENTS:  

MAR CORN:  Its trading action today was not good.  It could be setting up to sell off more.  It formed a key reversal top on the daily chart.  It is trying to hold the 100 day ma though.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 637, down 5 1/2.

MAR MINI WHEAT:  Both the 40-year seasonal average and the 15-year seasonal average indicates that wheat has a strong pattern of declining throughout the entire month of February.  Today's sell-off held at the 100 day ma.  Right under it is the 20 day ma.  The last time wheat sold off from the 675 level in early January, it did try to rally off the 20 day ma but eventually failed.  Possibly it will attempt the same now.  Watching closely to short.  Closed 646, down 14 3/4. 

MAR MINI BEANS:  Even though beans on the daily chart are having trouble from the same level that caused a sharp sell-off in January, the long term charts are constructive.  Just watching for now.  Closed 1227 1/2, down 4.

MAR MEAL:  The long term charts are starting to develop some negative technicals.  The weekly is forming a key reversal top.  It is also back under the 100 & 150 day ma.  The monthly is backing off from the 20 day ma.  The daily rallied up to the 150 day ma and has sold off since.  Have we seen the top to the rally?  Just watching to short.  Closed 321.00, down .70.

MAR BEAN OIL:  It has a buy signal and has held its gains well.  It still has a potential to try for 54.00.  Just watching.  Closed 52.54, down .04.

MEAT COMMENTS: 

APR HOGS:  In my last report I pointed out that the recent sell-off appears to be a correction to a third wave up.  So far the market continues to suggest that.  It rallied today to over the 90.00 support.  What will be key is the high of the third wave up (90.77) for the following reason.  It is there that both the 100 and 150 day ma on the daily intersected.  They pretty much intersect in the same area today at 90.70.  Getting over that would be major and, based on the chart, is a strong possibility.  Why?  Hogs did enough work between 86.25 and 88.80 to easily push them over that.  Closed 89.65, up .70.

APR CATTLE:  As mentioned before they are, long term, in resistance and are backing off.  The concern is that the previous long term negative technicals are long gone and the monthly sure looks like it is in the process of another major wave up.  Back to the daily chart:  near term it looks over bought.  It is having the same problem in the same area that ended the rally in late October/early November.  The produced a sell-off to 121.02.  Since then they have had two waves up.  Right now they look as though they could be starting a correction to the second wave up.  If so, they have projections down to 126.00 to 126.50.  If they hold there and start to rally, they may follow through on what the monthly long term suggests.  Closed 128.20, down .60.

SOFTS: 

MAR COTTON:  I pointed out before that if cotton took out 92.69 it would be very negative.  It did so today with continued follow through.  It looks headed for 90.00.  Long term there really isn't any change.  It has been consolidating for some time and continues to do so.  The weekly is still struggling with getting back over the 20 day ma and this latest drop is probably in response to that.  The low end of the current range is around 86.00.  Just watching.  Closed 90.38, down 3.24.

MAR ORANGE JUICE:  In the last Update I suggested that the major rally could be over with.  Since then it has continued to sell off.  The new low is 186.25.  Technically there is no change long term since Tuesday's Update.  Closed 189.75, down .95.

MAR COFFEE:  The 15 year cycle that normally sees coffee selling off during the first half of February seems to be dominating.  On Tuesday the recent rally reached the 20 day ma up at 222.25.  Attempts after that to get over it failed and today it sold off to 214.75.  The number to watch now is 210.95.  Taking that out could push it to 200.00 - my projection for some time.  The long term charts support that possibility.  The monthly is triggering a preliminary sell this month after violating the 20 day ma last month.  The weekly chart is back under the 100 day ma after holding above it earlier this week.  Both are negative.  Closed 216.00, down 4.05.

MAR COCOA:  I have tried twice to buy it.  It continues to sell off.  So be it.  Today's low went to 21.86.  It rallied back over the 22.00 support and is trying to hold.  That is also where the 100 day ma on the monthly intersects and it is flirting with violating that.  Watching closely.  Closed 22.36, down .27.

MAY SUGAR:  It attempted again to get over the 100 day ma today.  It could not do it and sold off.  It did hold at the 20 day ma.  Keep stops at 23.20.  Closed 23.71, up 7.
Position:  Long 23.85 (2.7).
Projection:  25.00.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.  Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts.  The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.  Actual results may vary.