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Softs Market Commentary


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March sugar closed up 8 points at 24.48 cents yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday and hit a fresh two-week high on more short covering. Sugar bears do still have the slight near-term technical advantage. Sugar bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 25.21 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week's low of 23.41 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 24.77 cents and then at 25.00 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 24.25 cents and then at 24.00 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

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March coffee closed up 20 points at 220.75 cents. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday. Coffee bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a choppy, five-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 230.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 210.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 222.45 cents and then at 225.00 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 219.15 cents and then at 217.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March cocoa closed down $27 at $2,246 a ton. Prices closed near the session low yesterday. Cocoa bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish double- bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, but the bulls need to step up and show more power soon. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $2,480. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,100. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $2,304 and then at this week's high of $2,332. First support is seen at this week's low of $2,230 and then at last week's low of $2,210.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March cotton closed down 95 points at 93.62 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session low again yesterday. Cotton bears have gained the slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 98.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week's low of 92.69 cents. First support is seen at 92.69 cents and then at 92.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 94.00 cents and then at 95.00 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

March orange juice closed down 775 points at $1.8810 yesterday.Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday and hit another fresh three-week low. Bulls faded badly yesterday as it looks like a market top is in place. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above major psychological resistance at $2.0000. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.7800. First resistance is seen at $1.9000 and then at $1.9250. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $1.8625 and then at $1.8500.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March lumber futures closed down $3.80 at $265.60 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low again yesterday. The lumber bulls still have some upside technical momentum and have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $255.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $280.00. First resistance is seen at $270.00 and then at yesterday's high of $272.50. First support is seen at $265.00 and then at $262.50.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

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About the author


Jim Wyckoff has been involved with the stock, financial and futures markets for more than 20 years.  He was born and raised in Iowa, where he still resides.

Wyckoff became a financial journalist with Futures World News for many years, cutting his teeth as a reporter on the futures trading floors in Chicago and New York, where he covered every futures market traded in the United States at one time or another.

Not long after he began his career in financial journalism, he began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, he realized this approach to analyzing and trading markets could level the playing field between “professional insiders” in the markets and individual traders.

His extensive studies of technical analysis and knowledge of markets led to several positions, including chief technical analyst at several well-known companies.  He says his mission is not just to generate profits for traders but to also provide them with educational and insightful information because, in the fascinating business of trading, one never stops learning.

Wyckoff received a Bachelor of Science degree at Iowa State University, graduating in 1984 with a major in journalism and a minor in economics. He and his wife have two children, a son in high school and a daughter in college.

When he’s not analyzing markets and educating traders, Wyckoff says he loves adventures, from driving a Jeep across the highest mountain pass in the continental United States to extreme winter camping in the Boundary Waters to hiking in the jungles of South America.

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