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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Monday


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* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The European Union sovereign debt crisis is back on the front burner to start the new trading week, as many markets, including stock indexes, metals and crude oil are under pressure while the U.S. dollar index rebounds. While the EU debt crisis is in the spotlight today, which has caused risk appetite in the market place to shrink, many markets are just seeing good price corrections from recent trending moves.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Bulls still have the strong near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week's high of 1,342.00 and then at the July 2011 high of 1,354.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday's low of 1,320.30 and then at 1,310.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,521.00 and then at last week's high of 2,530.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,500.00 and then at Friday's low of 2,489.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Bulls are still technically strong. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 12,700 and then more stops just below support at 12,650. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday's high of 12,814 and then at the May 2011 high of 12,827. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies at 142 16/32 and then at last week's low of 142 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 143 even and then at the overnight high of 143 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.22.0 and then at 132.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week's low of 131.09.5 and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

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The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today, on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 79.66 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.14 and then at 79.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today. Prices are in a gentle four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.Bulls are fading. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $98.00 and then at $99.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $96.58 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading, despite the key "outside markets" being in a bearish posture for grains this morning, as the U.S. dollar index is higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes are weaker. Dry weather in South American corn and soybean regions and extremely cold weather in Black Sea wheat regions are bullish fundamentals for the grains at present.

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About the author


Jim Wyckoff has been involved with the stock, financial and futures markets for more than 20 years.  He was born and raised in Iowa, where he still resides.

Wyckoff became a financial journalist with Futures World News for many years, cutting his teeth as a reporter on the futures trading floors in Chicago and New York, where he covered every futures market traded in the United States at one time or another.

Not long after he began his career in financial journalism, he began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, he realized this approach to analyzing and trading markets could level the playing field between “professional insiders” in the markets and individual traders.

His extensive studies of technical analysis and knowledge of markets led to several positions, including chief technical analyst at several well-known companies.  He says his mission is not just to generate profits for traders but to also provide them with educational and insightful information because, in the fascinating business of trading, one never stops learning.

Wyckoff received a Bachelor of Science degree at Iowa State University, graduating in 1984 with a major in journalism and a minor in economics. He and his wife have two children, a son in high school and a daughter in college.

When he’s not analyzing markets and educating traders, Wyckoff says he loves adventures, from driving a Jeep across the highest mountain pass in the continental United States to extreme winter camping in the Boundary Waters to hiking in the jungles of South America.

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