WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower on forecasts for more moderate temperatures to show up next week in Russia and Ukraine. Crops could see still a lot of damage and loss from the extreme cold being reported near the Black Sea, but the threat is passing. Wheat demand could start to increase as the US Wheat is now as cheap as any in the world. Russia and France are now reported to be higher than the US. North Africa has seen some very dry weather. Russia and Ukraine have both seen some very cold temperatures recently that could create Winterkill. Cold temperatures are forecast for this week. Overseas prices have been moving higher and US prices are lower and can compete now. Great Plains crops are mostly dormant, and current cold weather is not cold enough to hurt crops. Wheat is still going to feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed for the short term.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 681 and 735 March. Support is at 658, 648, and 641 March, with resistance at 670, 684, and 688 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 729 March. Support is at 710, 700, and 695 March, with resistance at 726, 730, and 732 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 846, 876, and 884 March. Support is at 832, 823, and 813 March, and resistance is at 844, 850, and 870 March.

RICE
General Comments: Prices were lower on chart patterns and demand weakness. Demand remains an issue with export sales only showing a moderate pace. Dry weather in Texas is a big issue for the coming year as water might not be available for irrigation in the state. There are reports of widespread precipitation in the last week throughout the state, and especially in some of the Rice areas. Much more is needed to fill lakes and allow for irrigation of the crop this Summer. Futures prices for next year are low in the US and offer no real reason to plant, especially in the face of higher competing crop prices. Cash markets remain quiet in the US.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in the Delta and in Texas for the next couple of days. Temperatures will average near to above normal in Texas and near to above normal in the Delta.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1290 March. Support is at 1350, 1340, and 1328 March, with resistance at 1388, 1398, and 1420 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower yesterday on demand ideas and despite improving weather in South America. South American forecasts call for showers and storms again much of this week along with some cooler temperatures. Very good and very beneficial rains were reported in Argentina last week. Crop losses are now being reported from both countries, but rains now can help prevent further losses. Demand has improved over the last couple of weeks due to lower futures a couple of weeks ago and a cheaper US Dollar, but futures probably need to work lower again to create new demand. The interior cash market is weaker due to increased selling interest from farmers, but still very strong. Farmers were noted sellers late last week as basis held well and futures rallied, and bullish speculators were unable to push the market to new highs. Charts show that prices may have made a short term top in the last week.
Overnight News: Basis is weaker at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 630, 625, and 619 March, and resistance is at 647, 649, and 653 March. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 327 and 347 March. Support is at 302, 298, and 296 March, and resistance is at 314, 318, and 320 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on ideas of new Chinese buying here. Soybeans areas will get some very beneficial precipitation again this week in South America. South American forecasts call for showers and storms again by the middle of this week along with some cooler temperatures. Too much rain in Mato Grosso has slowed harvest progress, but forecasts call for drier weather there to help speed harvest progress. There was talk that China could continue to increase purchases from here as our prices are now competitive. There is a lot of talk that they have been buying here, but nothing has been confirmed and it could be that futures need to move lower to get the pricing done. Demand is still an issue as export sales remain behind last year. Basis levels are weaker in the country.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady to firm at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1204, 1192, and 1187 March, and resistance is at 1225, 1229, and 1240 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 316.00, 313.00, and 310.00 March, and resistance is at 327.00, 329.00, and 330.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5080, 5040, and 5030 March, with resistance at 5160, 5190, and 5210 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher. Speculative selling was profit taking in sympathy with Chicago, but prices held better on news that China will not allow imports of Rapeseed from India due to phyto issues. Exporter and crusher buying was noted in the May contract. Cash markets were reported strong as farmers have stopped selling and demand has held strong. Palm Oil was higher. China is back from its holidays, but demand is not expected to appear right away. Export data has been poor all month and this is creating some selling interest now. SGS estimated January exports at 1.293 million tons, from 1.486 million in December. ITK estimated exports at 1.315 million tons, from 1.493 million in December. The exports are down about as expected, or perhaps slightly less than expected.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 522.00, 516.00, and 511.00 March, with resistance at 526.00, 532.00, and 538.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3040, 3025, and 3015 April, with resistance at 3090, 3100, and 3110 April.

DAIRY
General Comments: Milk and products futures were lower on ideas of big production. A stronger US Dollar hurt demand ideas, and butter demand in particular seems very weak. Charts indicate that dairy futures are trying to develop a trading range. Charts show that Butter remains weak and in down trends, but that Cheese and M<ilk could try to hold support areas and create bottoms. However, traders note price weakness overseas and fear that US prices will need to work lower in the next few weeks to compete. Overall price action implies that further weakness is coming.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are down with no objectives. Support is at 1565, 1550, and 1520 March, and resistance is at 1605, 1620, and 1640 March. Trends in Cheese are down with objectives of 155.60 and 147.80 March. Support is at156.00, 154.00, and151.00 March, with resistance at 158.00, 159.10, and 160.20 March. Trends in Butter are down with objectives of 153.25 March. Support is at 152.75, 150.00, and 147.00 March, and resistance is at154.00, 155.00, and 158.00 March.

Midwest Weather: Mostly dry weather until early next week when precipitation moves from west to east. Temperatures will average mostly above normal.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322