Soybeans rebounded on Friday from Thursday's 20 cent drop, supported by a firmer crude oil market and the continuation of the US dollars slide. Jan beans ended Fridays session 10 ¼ cents higher. Other factors influencing soybeans on Friday was the release of Informa Economics latest estimate of the 2007 soybean crop. They trimmed their estimate to 2.628 bil bu, with an average yield of 41.8 bpu. This forecast was still above the USDA's forecast. Volume was heavy on Friday although not as much as recent sessions. The CBOT reported 123,601 Soybeans, 32,730 Oil and 33,019 meal traded Friday. Funds were buyers of an estimated 3,000 Soybeans, 3,000 Oil and 2,500 Meal.
Early opening calls today are lower as traders indicate a profit taking type setback today from gains on Friday. Also weighing on the market today is a slightly higher US dollar and lower crude oil prices. Pressure also stemming from big harvest weekend in the U.S. Midwest and early fall in crude oil markets amid a firm dollar. Good South American crop weather also weighing on soy futures. South Korea has purchased 21,000 MT of non GMO Chinese Soybeans overnight.Chinese Soybean and Oil futures closed higher, Meal mixed. Overnight Malaysian Palm oil closed mixed. Indian Soyoil closed lower.
Early Opening Calls: 5 to 6c lower; soymeal $2 lower; soyoil 15-20c lower
Top News
**USDA reports private sale of 100,064 mt of Soybean sold to Mexico for 07/08 market year
-- Ukranian legislators have officially pushed the start date of grain exports back to Jan '08, instead of Nov '07
-- Informa on Friday pegs '07 Soybean Production at 2.628 bil bu on an average yield of 41.8 bpa - this represents a nominal decline from last month
-- Informa on Friday forecasted 2007 Cotton production at 18.229 mil bales on a yield of 830 bpa, this is an increase of +1.91% from last month
-- CBOT Soybean Deliveries: 122 thru Term
-- Study estimates $150 Bln will flow into Commodity Indicies during 2008 up from the estimated $110 Bln this year, acc. to S&P study
-- The Commitment of Traders report with Options as of October 30 shows Funds:
Soybeans Long 133,178 off 1,293
Meal Long 68,005 up 2,573
Oil Long 59,163 up 4,676
-- Dalian Soybean futures higher, May +45 yuan/mt to 4419 yuan/mt; soymeal May futures +2 yuan/mt to 3285 yuan/mt; soyoil futures up 60 yuan/mt to 8920 yuan/mt.
-- Malaysian Palm slightly higher in overnight trade, but volume of trade about 1/2 of average daily volume
-- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 97,711; Pit Vol. 22,359; Open Interest Change: -9,039
-- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Normal to Below Temps. Normal to Below Precip. The Corn Belt looks dry today and Tuesday.
-- Outside markets. Energy: crude off 1.50 to $94.37/bbl, products lower also ; Gold slightly lower & Silver: slightly higher; US $ higher vs Euro, but off against Yen basis the Dec futures.
Cash Markets
--CIF Soybeans steady firm. Nov. +32F to +39F, Dec. +43 to +50, Jan. +50 to +55, Feb. +35 to +42, Mar. +38 to +43, Apr. +37 to +40, May +37 to +40, J/J +35 to +45.
Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
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